A trading venue’s liquidity represents how easily a trader can use the platform to exchange one asset for another. If a trader sends a market order to buy or sell an asset and the venue can’t find enough buy or sell orders to complete the transaction at a reasonable price, the venue is likely struggling with low liquidity — and the trader is likely to take their future business elsewhere.
Venues that provide adequate liquidity and competitive market pricing tend to experience a rewarding cycle, with traders who find their liquidity needs met, returning for more transactions, which provides liquidity to other traders acting as counterparties. Liquidity can also help lessen the effects of individual transactions on an asset’s marketplace conditions. A venue struggling with low liquidity for a given asset will see a large portion of its order book eaten up by a single transaction. This means that the order will crawl higher up the order book and incur a higher average price (or a lower one for traders trying to sell).
The orders left standing are less likely to accurately represent the asset’s price averaged across many venues. A venue with high liquidity, however, can withstand a flurry of quick transactions before consuming a large portion of its order book, leading to better fills and happier customers.
Liquidity is essential for success, both in crypto exchanges and in far older and traditional financial markets. That’s why institutional venues such as the New York Stock Exchange often partner with in-house liquidity providers. Those providers act as market makers, playing a major role in defining an asset’s short term market value by readily providing liquidity when the buy/sell orders that traders send to them are executed.
Liquidity can be a little harder to come by for venue builders in the much younger world of crypto — but that doesn’t mean venue operators are out of options. As crypto finance becomes more and more sophisticated, venue operators are finding ways to provide traders with the liquidity they crave. Three promising options are third-party market makers, cross-exchange market making and liquidity mining. Different liquidity solutions can tie up different amounts of capital and operational capacity, so there is no one-size-fits-all strategy.
Related: Can a liquidity marketplace advance the crypto industry?
Third-party market makers
Crypto market maker agreements essentially replicate the in-house liquidity solutions that are popular in institutional finance venues. A venue makes the agreement with an outside liquidity provider — most commonly a hedge fund. These providers usually trade in many different venues at once and can source the liquidity they need for one venue by executing trades at other venues.
Unlike market takers, who are willing to pay more than they’d prefer to obtain an asset because they value holding the asset itself, market makers are willing to buy or sell any asset as long as they can capture a marginal profit by hedging their trade on another venue and maintain their desired inventory levels. To stabilize a long-term partnership, market makers and trading venues will often agree on a certain profit level that makers can expect to generate each month. If the maker’s profit falls below that amount, the venue agrees to pay the difference.
Venues may add extra incentives in the agreement. For example, some makers will agree to provide loss leader pricing, which quotes the lowest price found across multiple exchanges in order to attract traders from other venues. Trading platforms also sometimes offer makers increased margin levels. Venues regularly review their market makers’ balance sheets to ensure the maker’s creditworthiness. This review process helps venues decide which accounts will be allowed to temporarily trade to negative account balances.
Approved market makers can settle their obligations daily and, under some circumstances, weekly, which may mean that the trading venues’ short term liabilities will temporarily exceed the assets under their management until settlement occurs. Market makers with increased margin levels can lend out inventory and/or arbitrage for other opportunities within settlement windows to increase their returns.
Market makers or exchanges that enter a formal liquidity environment may also have specific requirements when it comes to technical integration between the venue and the liquidity provider. Makers who represent a financial institution often prefer to interact with exchanges via Financial Information Exchange, or FIX API, a standardized communication protocol for financial data. This protocol is fast, efficient and optimal for co-located servers. Some less institutional traders may prefer to use a WebSocket protocol, which is mostly targeted at retail investors. This method is still viable for high-frequency trading but is often slower than FIX and can handle fewer requests per minute due to rate limit restrictions.
Cross-exchange market making
In this strategy, traders can still turn to a market maker — but the maker is the venue operator rather than a third party. Thanks to cross-exchange transactions, the venue can source liquidity without risking significant losses.
Venue operators serve as market makers at their own venues — the “maker exchange” — and simultaneously act as market takers at one or more other venues — the “taker exchange.” Those external taker exchanges — also known as source exchanges — have their own liquidity providers, who set bid and offer prices for other market participants to take. Operators on the maker exchange use those bid and offer prices to set market-making conditions at their own venue, oftentimes with a markup to the source exchange.
In the example above, the venue operator will buy an asset sold on the maker exchange for $98, the lowest price available, while simultaneously selling that asset on the taker exchange for $99. Their inventory levels remain the same, and they not only haven’t lost capital but have actually made a small profit of $1. Likewise, the operator can sell an asset for the best offer they encounter on the maker exchange — $101 — while simultaneously recovering that inventory without losing any capital by repurchasing it on the taker exchange for $100. The exchange operator can continue this process repeatedly to generate revenue.
Cross-exchange market making lets venue operators source liquidity without paying a third party to do it for them, but this strategy comes with capital efficiency issues. The market maker service providers we discussed in the prior section often have lines of credit at multiple venues, letting them trade on margin rather than collateralizing the full amount of asset inventory they post for each trade. A venue operator practicing cross-exchange market making without access to credit has to keep significant inventory in their taker exchanges, making it difficult to use that capital for any other profit-generating purpose or for frequently necessary rebalancing across trading venues.
Liquidity mining
Market making was an important service in traditional financial venues before crypto even existed, and cross-exchange market making between different crypto venues is a logical extension of this traditional finance concept. Liquidity mining, however, is a strategy with much closer ties to crypto itself as an asset class.
Cryptocurrency has gained (and continues to gain) traction because of its uniquely decentralized structure. That decentralization is deeply tied to community participation. Many blockchain protocols, for example, reward individual participants for staking coins or running nodes. When structured properly, these rewards incentivize the distribution of computing power across a wide network of independent participants, which, in turn, makes the protocol itself more decentralized and thus more resilient.
Liquidity mining extends the blockchain tradition of turning to the community for decentralized support of important crypto functions. Venues that turn to liquidity mining eschew any singular market-making source whether it’s a partnership with a professional market-making firm or their own cross-exchange market-making algorithm. Instead, they distribute open-source software to any participant who wants to download it.
These newly enlisted liquidity miners connect their crypto wallets and set parameters for the software to automatically execute market-making trades on participating exchanges. A pool of rewards is algorithmically generated and distributed among miners, with miners who tolerate more risk receiving greater rewards.
Final thoughts
There is no one-size-fits-all liquidity solution, and every strategy features drawbacks and inefficiencies. Liquidity mining is a theoretically promising strategy that’s now being implemented on-the-ground in a handful of crypto venues, but it still has a long way to go before it’s proven scalable for mainstream trading.
Cross-exchange market making not only creates capital inefficiencies but can also drive traders away due to the venue’s conflicted interests: Though venue operators execute the strategy to provide liquidity, they do so by trading against and sometimes profiting off of exchange clients. Market-making agreements have put off some crypto enthusiasts who prefer a decentralized approach and a definitive movement away from the world of traditional finance, but for many exchange operators, these agreements are realistically by far the most effective liquidity solution, providing access to credit lines and highly liquid non-crypto venues.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
This article was co-authored by Warren Lorenz and Aly Madhavji.
Warren Lorenz is the chief strategy officer of Pipefold — a non-custodial clearinghouse for digital assets that eliminates counterparty risk, liquidity risk and hacking risk, helping institutions to efficiently allocate capital across crypto markets. Warren is also a limited partner at Weave Markets — a digital asset hedge fund — and was the previous managing director of trading operations at Amplify Exchange. As an entrepreneur, Warren has built multiple products that were licensed and sold to hedge funds, proprietary trading offices and family offices.
Aly Madhavji is the managing partner at Blockchain Founders Fund, which invests in and builds top-tier venture startups. He is a limited partner at Loyal VC. Aly consults organizations on emerging technologies, such as INSEAD and the United Nations, on solutions to help alleviate poverty. He is a senior blockchain fellow at INSEAD and was recognized as a “Blockchain 100” Global Leaders of 2019 by Lattice80. Aly has served on various advisory boards, including the University of Toronto’s Governing Council.
If History Rhymes, This Indicator Suggests Bitcoin May See a Parabolic Explosion
Published
17 Minuten ago
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Dezember 29, 2020
By
Bitcoin has seen some mixed price action as of late, with bulls being unable to take control of its trend in the time following its rally up to $28,500
The rejection here was quite intense, and it has yet to show any signs of strength in the time following this occurrence
The fact that bulls have guarded against any deeper drawback is positive because it invalidates the possibility that this recent high is a blow-off top
One trader is now noting that there is an incredibly bullish indicator that is flashing for Bitcoin
He points to the cryptocurrency’s monthly RSI, noting that a monthly close above a specific level that it is nearing is historically followed by parabolic moves higher
In the past, these movements have had an average return of 1,010%, but their size and length seem to diminish with time
Bitcoin and the entire crypto market have declined over the past 12 hours, which appears to be the direct result of the pressure that XRP is placing on the market due to its latest selloff.
Where the market trends in the mid-term likely won’t depend on XRP, which means that this latest round of selling pressure may mark a knee-jerk reaction from investors.
One analyst is noting that Bitcoin’s monthly RSI is flashing an incredibly bullish sign for where BTC trends next.
Bitcoin Struggles to Gain Momentum Following $28,500 Rejection
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading down just over 1% at its current price of $26,700.
The crypto has been trading between the upper-$26,000 region and the lower-$27,000 region throughout the past few days.
It has yet to garner enough buy-side support to break above the heavy resistance laced throughout the lower-$28,000 region. For now, this peak could mark a blow-off top.
Indicator Suggests BTC is About to Go Parabolic
One trader explained in a recent tweet that Bitcoin could be on the cusp of seeing a parabolic move higher in the days and weeks ahead.
He points to the cryptocurrency’s monthly RSI as an indicator for this possibility.
“BTC – Monthly RSI. Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”
Image Courtesy of il Capo of Crypto. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.
The coming few days should shed light on Bitcoin’s trend, as continued weakness could confirm $28,500 as a local high and lead to a deeper retrace.
Featured image from Unsplash.
Charts from TradingView.
‘Bullish year ahead’ — Bitcoin primed for Q1 2021 gains, strength index suggests
Published
38 Minuten ago
on
Dezember 29, 2020
By
The monthly relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin (BTC) shows the dominant cryptocurrency is primed for another rally.
Is 2021 an ideal time for a Bitcoin rally?
The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold. When the RSI surpasses 75, it signals the asset is overbought, and when it drops below 30, it means the asset is oversold.
A pseudonymous trader known as “Crypto Capo” noted that the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is set to close above 80. Historically, when this has happened, BTC has saw a strong rally afterward.
Although the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is above 80, which is technically oversold, BTC’s RSI tends to become oversold for prolonged periods during a bull cycle.
The monthly RSI of Bitcoin. Source: Crypto Capo
Hence, traders often refer to an oversold RSI on a high time frame chart, like the monthly candle chart, to forecast an extended rally in the short term to medium term. The trader said:
“Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”
However, the trader emphasized that one indicator cannot accurately predict the price cycle of Bitcoin. Crypto Capo explained that the combination of a few indicators could serve as guidance for the future. He wrote:
“You cannot base a prediction on an indicator. What we do is combining several methods to have a guideline for the future, to see what is more likely. But in the end, we adapt to what the price does in the present.”
“Bullish year ahead”
Traders have differing perspectives on where Bitcoin is headed in 2021, but most traders remain overwhelmingly bullish.
Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michael van de Poppe said he anticipates Bitcoin to reach $65,000 to $85,000 by next year’s end. He stated:
“I’ve got to revise my view on the potential level of $BTC at the end of 2021. Through this recent surge, I’m expecting it to be between $65,000-85,000 at the end of 2021. Bullish year ahead.”
Meanwhile, the options market is pricing in a 22% chance of Bitcoin achieving $120,000 by next year, which could also serve as a potential guideline on where BTC is heading in 2021.
In the short-term, however, some traders are cautious in entering leveraged positions. A pseudonymous trader known as “TheBoot” said the ideal scenario is to wait for Bitcoin to consolidate at $25,000 or enter after the next price upsurge. The trader explained:
“No rush to enter leveraged trades on $btc right here imo. Best would be to wait and long low 25k or even mid 24k. Alternatively, wait for the next leg up and then a dip from there.”
Cointelegraph previously reported that whales have been buying Bitcoin more aggressively since Christmas, which could buoy the mid-term bull case for BTC entering into 2021.
Here’s What History Says To Expect From Bitcoin In 2021
Published
3 Stunden ago
on
Dezember 29, 2020
By
Bitcoin has had an explosive breakout year as a maturing financial asset,. The cryptocurrency is finally being considered by institutional investors for the first time, during a year that will go down in history for unprecedented money printing.
The asset’s hardcoded digital scarcity is a primary driver of its boom and bust cycles, and in the year following each block reward halving, magic happens. With the new year right around the corner, here’s a look back at past crypto market cycles for a glimpse at what to expect from Bitcoin in 2021.
Looking Back At Historical Bitcoin Market Cycles
All markets are cyclical and go through distinct phases of bear and bull trends. These cycles can take place over the course of decades, or a handful of years. In crypto, cycles often move faster than traditional assets due to the always-on, 24/7 market.
But because Bitcoin is just over a decade old, there are only a couple of boom and bust cycles at which to glean any useable data. In technical terms, when Bitcoin breaks its former all-time high, the new bull market is on.
Fundamentally, this occurs every four years following the asset’s block reward halving. This built-in mechanism slashes the supply of BTC in half at a time when demand is beginning to resume.
RELATED READING | NY TIMES BESTSELLING AUTHOR: BITCOIN S2F IS FLAWED, NOT MATHEMATICALLY SOUND
The combined effect of suddenly diminished supply and growing demand throws buying and selling equilibrium so out of balance that price appreciates exponentially.
2020 has acted as the ideal example of the impact each halving can have on the market. Bitcoin went from “a fad” to full-blown FOMO in less than nine months, all because supply and demand is so favorable to positive ROI.
And while 2020 was definitely a breakout year for a bullish Bitcoin, it is next year that will make a new wave of Bitcoin billionaires.
Halving years are marked in blue. In the year following, the cryptocurrency goes full parabolic | Source: BLX on TradingView.com
Move Over 2020, Why 2021 Will Be The Cryptocurrency’s Best Year Yet
Glancing at the chart above and it’s shocking to see just how high Bitcoin has climbed in twelve years. During the twelve years of trading, the cryptocurrency has had three distinct halvings, cutting the reward miners receive from 50 to 25 BTC, then from 25 to 12.5 BTC, to the current 6.25 BTC.
Each time this happens, demand begins to so drastically outweigh the limited supply, the asset goes parabolic and rises exponentially.
RELATED READING | BITCOIN BULL RUN IS OFFICIAL ACCORDING TO MONTHLY RSI, MORE BULLISH THAN 2017
In the two post-halving years on record, the first resulted in well over 6,000% ROI and the second just under 2,000% ROI. What could 2021 bring crypto investors?
Another 2,000-6,000% return isn’t likely simply due to the law of diminishing returns, however, even a 400% increase from current levels would result in a price of $125,000 per BTC.
Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com