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Recent Bitcoin Top Shares Key Similarities With Black Thursday Plummet

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Bitcoin’s recent $2,000 crash sent chills down the spines of crypto investors, turning market sentiment from extreme greed to fear in less than 48 hours flat.

The sharp drop brought back all too fresh memories of the mid-March Black Thursday market collapse.

But before that crash turned into total collapse, there was a pause before the panic fully kicked in. A comparison showing current Bitcoin price action has made rounds around the web, prompting investors to fear the worst day in finance could soon repeat.

Let’s take a look at the recent comparisons, as well as some other shocking similarities found on higher timeframe charts.

Is a Repeat Of Black Thursday Just Days Away? Remembering The Shocking Day

February 2020 saw new highs in the stock market and a retest of $10,000 in Bitcoin. Weeks later, an over 30% fall in the stock market, and over 50% collapse or more took place all across crypto.

Nothing was safe from the madness – even relatively stable precious metals and forex currencies were crushed under the enormous panic-selling into the dollar.

After that, however, the weakest phase in the dollar’s recent history let these same markets recover to new 2020 highs. The recovery has been one for the record books, shocking analysts at just how inflated the stock market bubble has begun to get.

RELATED READING | HOW THE GREENBACK TURNED BITCOIN AND CRYPTO INTO A SEA OF RED

With the bubble just unwilling to burst under any circumstances, after such an enormous stretch of recovery, equities and Bitcoin have experienced their first significant pullback since the fateful day now dubbed Black Thursday.

The recent crash has shown some strange similarities between the two, prompting an image to make its way to the top of the Reddit r/cryptocurrency community. An image showing the below comparison highlights just how well the first fall before the Black Thursday plummet matches up with the current price action.

BTCUSD Daily Black Thursday Fractal | Source: TradingView

 

Ominous Bitcoin Fractal Could Lead To Violent, 54% Selloff

But that’s not the only similarity between now and then. The above chart depicts daily timeframes, but zoomed out to weekly price charts below, there is more to compare.

btcusd black thursday2

BTCUSD Weekly Black Thursday Fractal | Source: TradingView

The weekly “top” Japanese candle structure almost exactly matches the candle structure of the recent crash. After an extended uptrend, at the peak, there is a red and a green doji-like close, signaling indecision in the market about if it wants to carry along higher or retest below.

Both times, the market decided in a retest. Black Thursday, clearly didn’t hold at support. This time around, Bitcoin spent a full three months building a base at which it broke through $10,000 – could this have been enough to build support that holds through even pandemic-related panic that’s still prevalent today? And can it also hold strong even with the risk of the upcoming election?

RELATED READING | WHY THE UPCOMING US ELECTION IS BITCOIN’S BIGGEST RISK

Hopefully, that continues to remain the case, as another, similar drop would be deadly for Bitcoin. The last fall from the weekly candle close that started the violent collapse, dropped a full 54%. If price action continues to trace along, after last night’s weekly close, the cryptocurrency will fall sharply over the next two weeks to around $4,700.

btcusd black thursday3

BTCUSD Weekly Black Thursday Fractal Repeat Target | Source: TradingView

A collapse from $12,400 to $4,700 when crypto investors were expecting a breakout of the triangle would be brutal on the market. However, could such a move shake out any remaining “moon boy” mentality from the space, finally allowing the asset class to grow healthily and sustainably?

Featured image from Deposit Photos.
Charts from TradingView.



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The next decade of sustainable crypto innovation begins today

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Since the creation of the first cryptocurrency over a decade ago, many have often been skeptical of their legitimacy, with some even dismissing them as a fraud. But in 2020, this paradigm seemed to have shifted. What has emerged is a shared recognition that Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets are here to stay and that they will play a key role in the future of global finance. 

This is not some far-fetched vision reserved to crypto-anarchists — financial actors that were traditionally wary of cryptocurrencies are now expressing confidence in their disruptive potential. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, for instance, have recently reversed their initial opposition to cryptocurrencies, becoming some of the latest to offer new banking services and offerings for the digital assets market.

Related: Will PayPal’s crypto integration bring crypto to the masses? Experts answer

As optimism and appreciation for the long term potential of cryptocurrencies continue to grow, so will the opportunities for revenue expansion among players within the ecosystem. Bitcoin miners, for instance, saw their topline figures surge by close to 50% on a month-on-month basis in November, as Bitcoin prices rallied more than 60% to above $18,000 over the same time period. Yet, in a highly competitive environment, success has largely been confined to a few industry leaders while remaining elusive to many.

For miners, gaining access to highly advanced mining equipment — one that boasts the highest level of power and cost efficiencies, and the fastest processing speeds — remains the single most critical factor to securing a competitive edge.

Related: Cryptocurrency mining profitability in 2020: Is it possible?

The evolution

The crypto mining industry has undergone a succession of substantial transformations to arrive at today’s advanced technical state. In its early days, mining was done using simple computers without any complex or high-powered devices. General-purpose central processing units, or CPUs, were all it took to produce Bitcoin. This led to a rapid expansion of the Bitcoin network, as the allure of easy money prompted an influx of new entrants — so much so that these first-generation miners were unable to keep pace with demand, rendering them obsolete in just a year’s time.

Graphics processing units were introduced next and made mining Bitcoin more efficient and profitable. Combining several GPUs became a common sight, as miners sought to further increase their mining performance and capabilities while maximizing gains. Despite these advancements, second-generation miners did not stand the test of time due to their high energy consumption and lack of long-term efficacy.

In 2011, field-programmed gate arrays, or FPGAs, emerged as the next logical step of progression. They were fast, highly energy-efficient, offered better performance and easier cooling than their predecessors. Nonetheless, FPGA miners were short-lived and eventually replaced by ASICs, which, until today, remain the dominant technology for the Bitcoin mining industry. Designed, built and optimized for the sole purpose of mining, ASICs are recognized for their superior harmonization of power consumption, performance and cost — around a million times more energy efficient and 50 million times faster in mining Bitcoin than the CPUs used in 2009.

The road ahead

Indeed, crypto mining has come a long way. Aside from performance-related developments, there have also been notable improvements to the environmental aspect of the technology, such as higher energy efficiency and faster hash rates. With a growing emphasis on sustainability, this is a trend likely to continue as chip design providers look to develop innovative solutions to cater to this evolving demand.

Two main developmental areas come to mind. First, the reengineering of current mining hardware to radically utilize less energy; and, second, a reprogramming of current mining chips to allow the use of hybrid energy for optimal cost performance.

Reengineering of the current mining hardware. Already, there are several concepts out in the market that are being researched and rigorously put to test — one of them being the use of photonic chips to perform computing. In theory, the technology appears promising, with two to three orders of magnitude better energy efficiency over current electronic processors. Yet, in reality, it remains inconclusive as to whether the power savings are realizable, particularly as Bitcoin scales. Until then, ASICs and their ongoing enhancements will continue to dominate the crypto mining space and lead the charge on energy efficiency in crypto mining.

Reprogramming of the current mining chips. Against common belief, the crypto mining industry is a relatively green one. As of December 2019, Bitcoin was powered by over 70% of renewable electricity. While the benefits of using renewables are undisputed, the truth is that renewables are an intermittent source of energy and are not always reliable for Bitcoin miners, who have a constant energy requirement. Fossil fuel-based power, on the contrary, serves generally as a more steady source of energy. To strike a balance between the sustainability of the industry and sustainability more broadly, a hybrid model can be adopted, whereby renewables are used predominantly as an energy source, with fossil fuel-based power setting in during production shortages. This entails redesigning and reprogramming current mining chips to enable greater ease of toggling between the two variants of energy sources, with no disruption to the mining processes.

As cryptocurrencies continue to rise in prominence, so will the influx of competition from new providers wanting a slice of the pie. Healthy competition can be positive in that it can lead to more innovation that brings greater efficiencies and maturity to the industry. To fully capitalize on the growth of the nascent cryptocurrency market, however, incumbent chip designers will need to invest further into research and development, particularly in areas of energy optimization and power performance.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Nangeng Zhang, also known as NG, is the founder, chairman and CEO of Canaan Inc., a leading provider of supercomputing solutions. While specializing in the field of supercomputing, NG explored the potential of application-specific integrated circuit design, consequently launching the world’s first digital cryptocurrency miner based on ASIC chips and catalyzing the era of ASIC mining.