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Bitcoin options data shows traders anticipate BTC price to fall soon

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Market data from Skew shows investors in the Bitcoin (BTC) options market are cautiously bearish in the short term as of Sep. 8. The shift in sentiment comes after BTC’s abrupt 17% drop in seven days.

The daily chart of Bitcoin. Source: TradingView.com

Bitcoin fell below the $10,000 support level for the fourth consecutive day. Some analysts say that the repeated test of the same level is a bearish sign. Others say that BTC is showing resilience at an important support area.

Why the Bitcoin options market data might be more relevant this time around

Throughout the recent pullbacks, BitMEX rarely saw long contract liquidations total above $50 million.

Typically, when the price of Bitcoin falls by 5% to 15%, BitMEX tends to see liquidations above $80 to $100 million.

The lackluster liquidations on major futures exchanges come from a relatively low open interest. The term open interest refers to the total amount of short and long contracts open at a certain time.

The futures market data indicates that the majority of the selling pressure did not come from cascading liquidations. Rather, miners or whales taking profit on their holdings likely triggered the sharp pullback since early September.

The options data could become more relevant in the short term because the futures market has been stagnating. 

Traders in the cryptocurrency market generally use two types of derivatives to trade Bitcoin: options and futures.

Total Bitcoin option open interest

Total Bitcoin option open interest. Source: Skew

While the aggregated open interest of Bitcoin futures has been falling, options open interest began to recover since Aug. 28. Researchers at Skew wrote:

“Bitcoin options flows show: short-term bearish, medium-term neutral, long-term bullish. A fair representation of consensus?”

Where traders expect BTC to head in the short term

In the near term, traders are exploring three main areas: Bitcoin whale buy orders at $8,800, the $9,650 CME gap, and the $10,620 CME gap. Edward Morra, a cryptocurrency trader, explained:

“CME chart has a fresh gap 10620, usually most of the gaps (~90%) are filled within few days max, with exceptions (10%) that take a long time (like your $9,6 gap from July). So, it makes sense to assume higher gap at 10620 gets filled first here and then we see how it goes.”

If BTC sees a relief rally, it could achieve both CME gaps, hitting the higher gap first. But a pseudonymous trader known as “Byzantine General” says there might not be enough shorts to trigger a squeeze. He said:

“People keep talking about a “squeeze”. But OI dropped like a rock and funding is baseline. What shorts are there to squeeze?”

Bitcoin open interest across major futures exchanges

Bitcoin open interest across major futures exchanges. Source: Coinalyze.net

The declining Bitcoin futures market’s open interest and the repeated retest of $10,000 support the short-term bear case for BTC. Whether it sees a relief rally after a 20% drop in 23 days remains to be seen.





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The next decade of sustainable crypto innovation begins today

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Since the creation of the first cryptocurrency over a decade ago, many have often been skeptical of their legitimacy, with some even dismissing them as a fraud. But in 2020, this paradigm seemed to have shifted. What has emerged is a shared recognition that Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets are here to stay and that they will play a key role in the future of global finance. 

This is not some far-fetched vision reserved to crypto-anarchists — financial actors that were traditionally wary of cryptocurrencies are now expressing confidence in their disruptive potential. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, for instance, have recently reversed their initial opposition to cryptocurrencies, becoming some of the latest to offer new banking services and offerings for the digital assets market.

Related: Will PayPal’s crypto integration bring crypto to the masses? Experts answer

As optimism and appreciation for the long term potential of cryptocurrencies continue to grow, so will the opportunities for revenue expansion among players within the ecosystem. Bitcoin miners, for instance, saw their topline figures surge by close to 50% on a month-on-month basis in November, as Bitcoin prices rallied more than 60% to above $18,000 over the same time period. Yet, in a highly competitive environment, success has largely been confined to a few industry leaders while remaining elusive to many.

For miners, gaining access to highly advanced mining equipment — one that boasts the highest level of power and cost efficiencies, and the fastest processing speeds — remains the single most critical factor to securing a competitive edge.

Related: Cryptocurrency mining profitability in 2020: Is it possible?

The evolution

The crypto mining industry has undergone a succession of substantial transformations to arrive at today’s advanced technical state. In its early days, mining was done using simple computers without any complex or high-powered devices. General-purpose central processing units, or CPUs, were all it took to produce Bitcoin. This led to a rapid expansion of the Bitcoin network, as the allure of easy money prompted an influx of new entrants — so much so that these first-generation miners were unable to keep pace with demand, rendering them obsolete in just a year’s time.

Graphics processing units were introduced next and made mining Bitcoin more efficient and profitable. Combining several GPUs became a common sight, as miners sought to further increase their mining performance and capabilities while maximizing gains. Despite these advancements, second-generation miners did not stand the test of time due to their high energy consumption and lack of long-term efficacy.

In 2011, field-programmed gate arrays, or FPGAs, emerged as the next logical step of progression. They were fast, highly energy-efficient, offered better performance and easier cooling than their predecessors. Nonetheless, FPGA miners were short-lived and eventually replaced by ASICs, which, until today, remain the dominant technology for the Bitcoin mining industry. Designed, built and optimized for the sole purpose of mining, ASICs are recognized for their superior harmonization of power consumption, performance and cost — around a million times more energy efficient and 50 million times faster in mining Bitcoin than the CPUs used in 2009.

The road ahead

Indeed, crypto mining has come a long way. Aside from performance-related developments, there have also been notable improvements to the environmental aspect of the technology, such as higher energy efficiency and faster hash rates. With a growing emphasis on sustainability, this is a trend likely to continue as chip design providers look to develop innovative solutions to cater to this evolving demand.

Two main developmental areas come to mind. First, the reengineering of current mining hardware to radically utilize less energy; and, second, a reprogramming of current mining chips to allow the use of hybrid energy for optimal cost performance.

Reengineering of the current mining hardware. Already, there are several concepts out in the market that are being researched and rigorously put to test — one of them being the use of photonic chips to perform computing. In theory, the technology appears promising, with two to three orders of magnitude better energy efficiency over current electronic processors. Yet, in reality, it remains inconclusive as to whether the power savings are realizable, particularly as Bitcoin scales. Until then, ASICs and their ongoing enhancements will continue to dominate the crypto mining space and lead the charge on energy efficiency in crypto mining.

Reprogramming of the current mining chips. Against common belief, the crypto mining industry is a relatively green one. As of December 2019, Bitcoin was powered by over 70% of renewable electricity. While the benefits of using renewables are undisputed, the truth is that renewables are an intermittent source of energy and are not always reliable for Bitcoin miners, who have a constant energy requirement. Fossil fuel-based power, on the contrary, serves generally as a more steady source of energy. To strike a balance between the sustainability of the industry and sustainability more broadly, a hybrid model can be adopted, whereby renewables are used predominantly as an energy source, with fossil fuel-based power setting in during production shortages. This entails redesigning and reprogramming current mining chips to enable greater ease of toggling between the two variants of energy sources, with no disruption to the mining processes.

As cryptocurrencies continue to rise in prominence, so will the influx of competition from new providers wanting a slice of the pie. Healthy competition can be positive in that it can lead to more innovation that brings greater efficiencies and maturity to the industry. To fully capitalize on the growth of the nascent cryptocurrency market, however, incumbent chip designers will need to invest further into research and development, particularly in areas of energy optimization and power performance.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Nangeng Zhang, also known as NG, is the founder, chairman and CEO of Canaan Inc., a leading provider of supercomputing solutions. While specializing in the field of supercomputing, NG explored the potential of application-specific integrated circuit design, consequently launching the world’s first digital cryptocurrency miner based on ASIC chips and catalyzing the era of ASIC mining.