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MicroStrategy Stock Jumps 9% Following Bitcoin Investment; Red Flags Ahead?

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The stock price of MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) surged by a little over 9 percent following its acquisition of hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin on Tuesday.

The public-traded firm closed the New York session higher at 155.75, up by 9.21 percent. Its gains came as a part of an all-round bullish session for the Nasdaq Composite. The tech-savvy index added 133.67 points, or 1.21 percent, to close the session at 11,190.32.

MSTR logs a better-than-average rally on Tuesday after buying $175m worth of Bitcoin. Source: TradingView.com

MicroStrategy increased its exposure in Bitcoin, an unconventional financial asset that aims to play hedge in times of global economic crisis. The firm’s co-founder, Michael Saylor, confirmed the purchase of $175 million worth of BTC units for their capital reserves.

That marked Microstrategy’s second-largest investment into the cryptocurrency since August 2020. Back then, the firm had reallocated $250 million worth of cash reserves to Bitcoin. It feared that the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented monetary policies would weaken the US dollar.

“This investment reflects our belief that Bitcoin, as the world’s most widely-adopted cryptocurrency, is a dependable store of value and an attractive investment asset with more long-term appreciation potential than holding cash,” Mr. Saylor had said.

Depressive Data

A report published by Yahoo Finance earlier in September showcased MicroStrategy as an underperforming software company based on the industry’s average Returns on Capital Employed (ROCE). It is a measure of a firm’s yearly pre-tax profit against the capital employed in the business.

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

The ROCE of MicroStrategy stood just 3.5 percent. In comparison, the average ROCE of the Software industry average was 8.6 percent. It now stands down by 25 percent on a five-year timeframe. Moreover, the company has been employing additional capital despite showing any credible improvement in sales last year.

Data provided by SimpleWall.st further showed that Microstrategy’s earnings have declined by 34.6 percent in the last five years.

MicroStrategy, Bitcoin, shareholder returns

MSTR shareholder returns against the industry and market average. Source: SimplyWall.st

The data aggregator portal raised more red flags about MicroStrategy by calling its stock “overvalued” and highlighting its return on equity as low. Nevertheless, it noted that the firm’s Price to Book ratio is better than the industry’s.

“MSTR is good value based on its PB Ratio (3x) compared to the US Software industry average (6.8x), SimplyWall.st wrote.

Bitcoin as Hedge

MicroStrategy’s dramatic shift to an emerging Bitcoin market signaled its likelihood to use the cryptocurrency as a hedge against its weaker financial health.

While the move validated the cryptocurrency a store-of-value asset among the big firms, it also increased the possibility of major bearish activities should MicroStrategy decide to sell it to offset its losses elsewhere.

The risks increase as the US stock market bubble grows with the monetary support from the Federal Reserve. As it bursts later, it would first impact the stocks of overvalued firms. That poses a severe challenge to MicroStrategy of keeping its bullish bias afloat.

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BTC/USD eyes a retest of $11,000. Source: TradingView.com

Overall, Bitcoin should have enough demand on the other side should the $425 million BTC whale decide to dump a portion of its holdings. Else, a significant downside correction should ensue.



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‘Bullish year ahead’ — Bitcoin primed for Q1 2021 gains, strength index suggests

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The monthly relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin (BTC) shows the dominant cryptocurrency is primed for another rally.

Is 2021 an ideal time for a Bitcoin rally?

The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold. When the RSI surpasses 75, it signals the asset is overbought, and when it drops below 30, it means the asset is oversold.

A pseudonymous trader known as “Crypto Capo” noted that the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is set to close above 80. Historically, when this has happened, BTC has saw a strong rally afterward.

Although the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is above 80, which is technically oversold, BTC’s RSI tends to become oversold for prolonged periods during a bull cycle.

The monthly RSI of Bitcoin. Source: Crypto Capo

Hence, traders often refer to an oversold RSI on a high time frame chart, like the monthly candle chart, to forecast an extended rally in the short term to medium term. The trader said:

“Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”

However, the trader emphasized that one indicator cannot accurately predict the price cycle of Bitcoin. Crypto Capo explained that the combination of a few indicators could serve as guidance for the future. He wrote:

“You cannot base a prediction on an indicator. What we do is combining several methods to have a guideline for the future, to see what is more likely. But in the end, we adapt to what the price does in the present.”

“Bullish year ahead”

Traders have differing perspectives on where Bitcoin is headed in 2021, but most traders remain overwhelmingly bullish.

Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michael van de Poppe said he anticipates Bitcoin to reach $65,000 to $85,000 by next year’s end. He stated:

“I’ve got to revise my view on the potential level of $BTC at the end of 2021. Through this recent surge, I’m expecting it to be between $65,000-85,000 at the end of 2021. Bullish year ahead.”

Meanwhile, the options market is pricing in a 22% chance of Bitcoin achieving $120,000 by next year, which could also serve as a potential guideline on where BTC is heading in 2021.

In the short-term, however, some traders are cautious in entering leveraged positions. A pseudonymous trader known as “TheBoot” said the ideal scenario is to wait for Bitcoin to consolidate at $25,000 or enter after the next price upsurge. The trader explained:

“No rush to enter leveraged trades on $btc right here imo. Best would be to wait and long low 25k or even mid 24k. Alternatively, wait for the next leg up and then a dip from there.”

Cointelegraph previously reported that whales have been buying Bitcoin more aggressively since Christmas, which could buoy the mid-term bull case for BTC entering into 2021.