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A Strengthening Renminbi Casts Further Bullish Spells on Bitcoin

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A robust exchange rate policy by the Chinese leaders has prompted the renminbi to log its best quarter in 12 years. And it may help Bitcoin surge as well.

The onshore renminbi added approx 4 percent in the three months ending September 30, its best since 2008. Meanwhile, its offshore counterpart gained more than 4 percent, signaling further weakening of the US dollar against the euro and other major currencies.

China’s preference for a weaker renminbi has inversed in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. The second-largest economy is now looking to develop the domestic consumption market. Analysts, including Essence Securities Chief Economist Gao Shanwen, said that yuan, a unit of the renminbi, would appreciate further.

“In the future, the yuan will enter a longer process of appreciation,” he said. “Maybe it will start soon.”

Renminbi Predicts the US Dollar Crash

Timothy Moe of Goldman Sachs also sees the renminbi strengthening to 6.5 per dollar in the next 12 months. The chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist credited the US dollar’s “structural period of weakening” for boosting yuan’s demand in global markets, calling it a “loss of US exceptionalism.”

Mansoor Mohiuddin, the chief economist at the Bank of Singapore, said in his latest op-ed that China’s growing trade imbalance with the US made the renminbi a de-factor indicator to gauge the dollar’s strength. In retrospect, if China’s currency rise, then it signals that the US economy is attracting fewer capital inflows.

The Chinese Yuan strengthens against the US dollar. Source: TradingView.com

The signs are already on the horizon. In the last 18 months, the Chinese government has increased its efforts to allow more foreign institutions to pour money into its domestic market. The coronavirus pandemic has further accelerated those inflows, given the rising yields on 10-year Chinese government bonds.

In contrast, the US 10-year Treasury is returning lower yields due to the Federal Reserve’s near-zero interest rate policy.

“It does look as if Chinese government bond yields will stay higher than developed markets’ bonds,” said Mr. Mohiuddin, citing the lower size of monetary stimulus provided by the Chinese government against the coronavirus pandemic.

That expects to create further downside pressure on the US dollar.

BTC to Benefit?

Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that the renminbi’s share in the global reserve currency circuit could increase from 2 percent to 10 percent in the next decade. Meanwhile, with the US fiscal deficit rising, people anticipate a stronger bearish bias in the US dollar market.

Sitting as a bystander of the so-called currency war is Bitcoin, a decentralized cryptocurrency that also serves as a hedge against falling traditional markets. Its exchange rate against the US dollar surged by 200 percent amid the pandemic, much higher than the renminbi.

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BTC/USD is trading upwards towards $11,000 in a choppy session Thursday. Source: TradingView.com

Bitcoin is likely to benefit from a stronger renminbi, given the Chinese currency keeps building downside pressure on the US dollar. Investors with huge exposure in the greenback may choose the scarce cryptocurrency to park their funds.

Read further: MicroStrategy Stock Jumps 9% Following Bitcoin Investment; Red Flags Ahead?



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The next decade of sustainable crypto innovation begins today

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Since the creation of the first cryptocurrency over a decade ago, many have often been skeptical of their legitimacy, with some even dismissing them as a fraud. But in 2020, this paradigm seemed to have shifted. What has emerged is a shared recognition that Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets are here to stay and that they will play a key role in the future of global finance. 

This is not some far-fetched vision reserved to crypto-anarchists — financial actors that were traditionally wary of cryptocurrencies are now expressing confidence in their disruptive potential. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, for instance, have recently reversed their initial opposition to cryptocurrencies, becoming some of the latest to offer new banking services and offerings for the digital assets market.

Related: Will PayPal’s crypto integration bring crypto to the masses? Experts answer

As optimism and appreciation for the long term potential of cryptocurrencies continue to grow, so will the opportunities for revenue expansion among players within the ecosystem. Bitcoin miners, for instance, saw their topline figures surge by close to 50% on a month-on-month basis in November, as Bitcoin prices rallied more than 60% to above $18,000 over the same time period. Yet, in a highly competitive environment, success has largely been confined to a few industry leaders while remaining elusive to many.

For miners, gaining access to highly advanced mining equipment — one that boasts the highest level of power and cost efficiencies, and the fastest processing speeds — remains the single most critical factor to securing a competitive edge.

Related: Cryptocurrency mining profitability in 2020: Is it possible?

The evolution

The crypto mining industry has undergone a succession of substantial transformations to arrive at today’s advanced technical state. In its early days, mining was done using simple computers without any complex or high-powered devices. General-purpose central processing units, or CPUs, were all it took to produce Bitcoin. This led to a rapid expansion of the Bitcoin network, as the allure of easy money prompted an influx of new entrants — so much so that these first-generation miners were unable to keep pace with demand, rendering them obsolete in just a year’s time.

Graphics processing units were introduced next and made mining Bitcoin more efficient and profitable. Combining several GPUs became a common sight, as miners sought to further increase their mining performance and capabilities while maximizing gains. Despite these advancements, second-generation miners did not stand the test of time due to their high energy consumption and lack of long-term efficacy.

In 2011, field-programmed gate arrays, or FPGAs, emerged as the next logical step of progression. They were fast, highly energy-efficient, offered better performance and easier cooling than their predecessors. Nonetheless, FPGA miners were short-lived and eventually replaced by ASICs, which, until today, remain the dominant technology for the Bitcoin mining industry. Designed, built and optimized for the sole purpose of mining, ASICs are recognized for their superior harmonization of power consumption, performance and cost — around a million times more energy efficient and 50 million times faster in mining Bitcoin than the CPUs used in 2009.

The road ahead

Indeed, crypto mining has come a long way. Aside from performance-related developments, there have also been notable improvements to the environmental aspect of the technology, such as higher energy efficiency and faster hash rates. With a growing emphasis on sustainability, this is a trend likely to continue as chip design providers look to develop innovative solutions to cater to this evolving demand.

Two main developmental areas come to mind. First, the reengineering of current mining hardware to radically utilize less energy; and, second, a reprogramming of current mining chips to allow the use of hybrid energy for optimal cost performance.

Reengineering of the current mining hardware. Already, there are several concepts out in the market that are being researched and rigorously put to test — one of them being the use of photonic chips to perform computing. In theory, the technology appears promising, with two to three orders of magnitude better energy efficiency over current electronic processors. Yet, in reality, it remains inconclusive as to whether the power savings are realizable, particularly as Bitcoin scales. Until then, ASICs and their ongoing enhancements will continue to dominate the crypto mining space and lead the charge on energy efficiency in crypto mining.

Reprogramming of the current mining chips. Against common belief, the crypto mining industry is a relatively green one. As of December 2019, Bitcoin was powered by over 70% of renewable electricity. While the benefits of using renewables are undisputed, the truth is that renewables are an intermittent source of energy and are not always reliable for Bitcoin miners, who have a constant energy requirement. Fossil fuel-based power, on the contrary, serves generally as a more steady source of energy. To strike a balance between the sustainability of the industry and sustainability more broadly, a hybrid model can be adopted, whereby renewables are used predominantly as an energy source, with fossil fuel-based power setting in during production shortages. This entails redesigning and reprogramming current mining chips to enable greater ease of toggling between the two variants of energy sources, with no disruption to the mining processes.

As cryptocurrencies continue to rise in prominence, so will the influx of competition from new providers wanting a slice of the pie. Healthy competition can be positive in that it can lead to more innovation that brings greater efficiencies and maturity to the industry. To fully capitalize on the growth of the nascent cryptocurrency market, however, incumbent chip designers will need to invest further into research and development, particularly in areas of energy optimization and power performance.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Nangeng Zhang, also known as NG, is the founder, chairman and CEO of Canaan Inc., a leading provider of supercomputing solutions. While specializing in the field of supercomputing, NG explored the potential of application-specific integrated circuit design, consequently launching the world’s first digital cryptocurrency miner based on ASIC chips and catalyzing the era of ASIC mining.