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Hopes of Last-Ditch Stimulus Prompt Bitcoin to Target $11K This Week

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Bitcoin was firm in the early Thursday trading session as new signs of progress emerged in negotiations over the second coronavirus stimulus.

The Donald Trump administration agreed to increase the size of the aid to $1.5 trillion – a trillion-dollar higher than their previous proposal. Steven Mnuchin, the US Treasury Secretary, confirmed in an interview with CNBC that a bipartisan group, known as the “problem solvers caucus,” backed the Republicans’ proposal.

On the other hand, Democratic House speaker Nanci Pelosi responded by delaying the vote on their own $2.2 trillion stimulus bill. She agreed to dwell further into the Republicans’ proposition, showing one of the first positive steps in months towards finalizing the relief package.

“Today, Secretary Mnuchin and I had an extensive conversation and we found areas where we are seeking further clarification,” Ms. Pelosi said on Wednesday. “Our conversation will continue.”

The Trump government’s offer still stands short of the Democrats’ proposal, which includes new direct payments to American households, further unemployment benefits, and aid to small and medium scale businesses battered by the coronavirus pandemic.

Risk Appetite Back

Still, the gap between what Republicans are offering and what the Democrats are expecting have narrowed down vastly. That has increased investors’ risk appetite as US stock and gold futures hint to open in a positive area this Thursday. Bitcoin, too, is maintaining itself above crucial support levels.

BTC/USD is trading upwards towards $11,000 in a choppy session Thursday. Source: TradingView.com

The benchmark cryptocurrency rose by almost 1.5 percent to $10,857 in an overnight rally. Its gains closely followed Mr. Mnuchin’s optimistic statements on the stimulus and sustained after Ms. Pelosi’s response.

Bitcoin also rose as sentiment for the US dollar grew weaker. Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at OANDA in New York, used the gold recovery on Wednesday as context to explain the said shift from cash markets, saying:

“There’s a bit of relief that the dollar rally has, for the most part, ended and it seems many investors are more so focused on the headwinds ahead of the global economic recovery.”

Both gold and Bitcoin have risen sharply this year as governments and central banks worldwide rolled out unprecedented stimulus packages to revive coronavirus-hit economies. Investors considered the two as their hedge against the potential, long-term currency debasement.

That further explains why a second stimulus package by the US government could lift Bitcoin further up.

Bitcoin Technical Setup

A push led by optimistic fundamentals expects to take the Bitcoin price to $11,000 by the end of this week.

Josh Rager, the founder of BlackRoots.com, highlighted the cryptocurrency for its recent ability to hold above $10,800, noting that the level could allow BTC/USD to retest higher levels this October. Excerpts:

“Monthly close looks fine for September (considering it was a down month with 15% pullback). Overall, the structure held & closed above $10,760 with a wick of almost 10% with buyers stepping-in at sub $10k IMO, expecting a green month for markets in October before election.”

$11,000 serves as a psychological resistance before the next Bitcoin bull run begins.





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‘Bullish year ahead’ — Bitcoin primed for Q1 2021 gains, strength index suggests

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The monthly relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin (BTC) shows the dominant cryptocurrency is primed for another rally.

Is 2021 an ideal time for a Bitcoin rally?

The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold. When the RSI surpasses 75, it signals the asset is overbought, and when it drops below 30, it means the asset is oversold.

A pseudonymous trader known as “Crypto Capo” noted that the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is set to close above 80. Historically, when this has happened, BTC has saw a strong rally afterward.

Although the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is above 80, which is technically oversold, BTC’s RSI tends to become oversold for prolonged periods during a bull cycle.

The monthly RSI of Bitcoin. Source: Crypto Capo

Hence, traders often refer to an oversold RSI on a high time frame chart, like the monthly candle chart, to forecast an extended rally in the short term to medium term. The trader said:

“Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”

However, the trader emphasized that one indicator cannot accurately predict the price cycle of Bitcoin. Crypto Capo explained that the combination of a few indicators could serve as guidance for the future. He wrote:

“You cannot base a prediction on an indicator. What we do is combining several methods to have a guideline for the future, to see what is more likely. But in the end, we adapt to what the price does in the present.”

“Bullish year ahead”

Traders have differing perspectives on where Bitcoin is headed in 2021, but most traders remain overwhelmingly bullish.

Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michael van de Poppe said he anticipates Bitcoin to reach $65,000 to $85,000 by next year’s end. He stated:

“I’ve got to revise my view on the potential level of $BTC at the end of 2021. Through this recent surge, I’m expecting it to be between $65,000-85,000 at the end of 2021. Bullish year ahead.”

Meanwhile, the options market is pricing in a 22% chance of Bitcoin achieving $120,000 by next year, which could also serve as a potential guideline on where BTC is heading in 2021.

In the short-term, however, some traders are cautious in entering leveraged positions. A pseudonymous trader known as “TheBoot” said the ideal scenario is to wait for Bitcoin to consolidate at $25,000 or enter after the next price upsurge. The trader explained:

“No rush to enter leveraged trades on $btc right here imo. Best would be to wait and long low 25k or even mid 24k. Alternatively, wait for the next leg up and then a dip from there.”

Cointelegraph previously reported that whales have been buying Bitcoin more aggressively since Christmas, which could buoy the mid-term bull case for BTC entering into 2021.