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What BitMEX scandal? Bitcoin futures data shows traders focused on $12K

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BitMEX used to be the indisputable leader of Bitcoin (BTC) futures trading and if something similar to yesterday’s civil enforcement action were to happen back in 2015-2018 the crypto markets would have completely collapsed.

Regardless of partial recovery to $10,600, which was relatively quick, derivatives markets held steady during the $500 drop down to $10,400. Neither BTC futures or options displayed any signs of discomfort to the negative news.

The futures market nearly ignored the entire event and this is a strong indicator that investors remain bullish. It also suggests that markets will be testing $12,000 sooner than one might expect.

BitMEX Bitcoin futures daily volume, 2019. Source: Skew

As shown above, BitMEX held nearly 50% of the market share until July 2019. This advantage came from being the precursor of the so-called perpetual contracts (inverse swaps) market. In addition to not requiring KYC, the derivatives exchange also offered up to 100x leverage and this helped in growing a vast user base.

After the Black Thursday market correction saw Bitcoin price drop below $3,600, competitor exchanges scrambled to offer similar services and this led to BitMEX losing its dominant position throughout 2019. 

Some in the crypto community believe that BitMEX’s ban of U.S. clients was the primary culprit for the loss of market share, and others point to their aggressive liquidation engine as the catalyst. 

During the March 13 crash, BitMEX faced technical difficulties and went offline for 25 minutes. Somehow, as the outage occurred and Bitcoin price crashed below $4,000, BitMEX’s insurance fund was able to increase its holdings by 1,000 BTC over the next 48 hours. Since that event, the open interest on BitMEX futures has been pinned below $1 billion.

 

BitMEX Bitcoin futures daily volumes, 2020

BitMEX Bitcoin futures daily volumes, 2020. Source: Skew

Looking at more recent data, BitMEX has become almost irrelevant in terms of volume. Over the past three months its market share hovered around 18% and while it is impossible to measure the exchange’s impact on BTC pricing, it clear that it’s lost its edge over the past eighteen months.

Bitcoin futures held steady despite the news

The basis indicator compares futures contracts price to the current level at regular spot exchanges. It is also commonly referred to as a futures premium. 

Healthy markets usually display a 5% to 15% annualized basis, in a situation known as contango. On the other hand, a negative basis (discounted futures) usually occurs during heavily bearish markets.

BTC futures curve

BTC futures curve. Source: Highcharts.com

The above chart shows a 5.4% or higher annualized 3-month contract premium for every exchange except BitMEX. Essentially, professional traders are signaling that their expectations were not harmed by yesterday’s events. 

If anything to be taken away by yesterday’s news, it’s that this is an exchange-specific issue with little to no impact on overall futures markets.

It is worth noting that the futures premium can remain relatively steady while investors are closing their positions. This would undoubtedly be a very worrisome situation, as it would signal that traders are worried about the exchanges’ liquidity.

From this perspective, open interest is the most critical evidence of investors confidence in a particular market or exchange. 

Even if the total aggregate figure didn’t change, an exodus from BitMEX to other exchanges would be reflected in open interest data.

BTC futures aggregate open interest

BTC futures aggregate open interest. Source: Skew

Take notice of how uneventful yesterday’s news was. BitMEX’s open interest has held $650 million, down 11% from the previous day, while the aggregated figure was mostly unaffected. 

Huobi absorbed most of the change, indicating that some traders likely moved their positions.

Bitcoin options sentiment remains neutral

The 25% delta skew is useful for gauging professional traders’ sentiment through options pricing. By comparing the implied volatility of similar-risk put and call options, an investor can assert whether it is more expensive to buy call (bullish) or put (bearish) options.

Bitcoin 3-month options 25% delta skew

Bitcoin 3-month options 25% delta skew. Source: Skew

The chart above shows that the 3-month options 25% delta skew has held in neutral terrain. A negative indicator means implied volatility for calls is larger than puts, signaling a slightly positive market expectation.

The indicator has been oscillating between 0% and -5% for the past week, and is far away from a bearish scenario. If anything, yesterday’s move can be deemed uneventful for options sentiment.

In bull markets, bad news is easily cast aside

There is no better indicator of a bull market than bad news. Regardless of BitMEX’s diminishing importance in volume and pricing, a government-backed action against a top-5 exchange would certainly have dampened the price had market sentiment been neutral or negative.

Investors and crypto advocates should also factor in Kucoin’s $150 million hack just 6 days ago. It literally had zero impact on Bitcoin price at the time. Now imagine those events happening a year ago, when BTC was in a downtrend after a failed $14K test as followed by a top formation at $12K.

Meanwhile, as all of this BitMEX scandal takes place, gold touched a 2-month low at $1,850 on Sept. 28 and has now partially recovered to $1,900. There are also discussions to finalize a second round of economic stimulus to the tune of $2.2 trillion and in less than 30 days the U.S. will have its presidential election.

Historically, all of these events tend to inject uncertainty into the markets and the fact that   Bitcoin derivatives’ data continue to hold steady during such turbulent news flow suggest that $12K may be tested sooner than one might think. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.





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The next decade of sustainable crypto innovation begins today

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Since the creation of the first cryptocurrency over a decade ago, many have often been skeptical of their legitimacy, with some even dismissing them as a fraud. But in 2020, this paradigm seemed to have shifted. What has emerged is a shared recognition that Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets are here to stay and that they will play a key role in the future of global finance. 

This is not some far-fetched vision reserved to crypto-anarchists — financial actors that were traditionally wary of cryptocurrencies are now expressing confidence in their disruptive potential. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, for instance, have recently reversed their initial opposition to cryptocurrencies, becoming some of the latest to offer new banking services and offerings for the digital assets market.

Related: Will PayPal’s crypto integration bring crypto to the masses? Experts answer

As optimism and appreciation for the long term potential of cryptocurrencies continue to grow, so will the opportunities for revenue expansion among players within the ecosystem. Bitcoin miners, for instance, saw their topline figures surge by close to 50% on a month-on-month basis in November, as Bitcoin prices rallied more than 60% to above $18,000 over the same time period. Yet, in a highly competitive environment, success has largely been confined to a few industry leaders while remaining elusive to many.

For miners, gaining access to highly advanced mining equipment — one that boasts the highest level of power and cost efficiencies, and the fastest processing speeds — remains the single most critical factor to securing a competitive edge.

Related: Cryptocurrency mining profitability in 2020: Is it possible?

The evolution

The crypto mining industry has undergone a succession of substantial transformations to arrive at today’s advanced technical state. In its early days, mining was done using simple computers without any complex or high-powered devices. General-purpose central processing units, or CPUs, were all it took to produce Bitcoin. This led to a rapid expansion of the Bitcoin network, as the allure of easy money prompted an influx of new entrants — so much so that these first-generation miners were unable to keep pace with demand, rendering them obsolete in just a year’s time.

Graphics processing units were introduced next and made mining Bitcoin more efficient and profitable. Combining several GPUs became a common sight, as miners sought to further increase their mining performance and capabilities while maximizing gains. Despite these advancements, second-generation miners did not stand the test of time due to their high energy consumption and lack of long-term efficacy.

In 2011, field-programmed gate arrays, or FPGAs, emerged as the next logical step of progression. They were fast, highly energy-efficient, offered better performance and easier cooling than their predecessors. Nonetheless, FPGA miners were short-lived and eventually replaced by ASICs, which, until today, remain the dominant technology for the Bitcoin mining industry. Designed, built and optimized for the sole purpose of mining, ASICs are recognized for their superior harmonization of power consumption, performance and cost — around a million times more energy efficient and 50 million times faster in mining Bitcoin than the CPUs used in 2009.

The road ahead

Indeed, crypto mining has come a long way. Aside from performance-related developments, there have also been notable improvements to the environmental aspect of the technology, such as higher energy efficiency and faster hash rates. With a growing emphasis on sustainability, this is a trend likely to continue as chip design providers look to develop innovative solutions to cater to this evolving demand.

Two main developmental areas come to mind. First, the reengineering of current mining hardware to radically utilize less energy; and, second, a reprogramming of current mining chips to allow the use of hybrid energy for optimal cost performance.

Reengineering of the current mining hardware. Already, there are several concepts out in the market that are being researched and rigorously put to test — one of them being the use of photonic chips to perform computing. In theory, the technology appears promising, with two to three orders of magnitude better energy efficiency over current electronic processors. Yet, in reality, it remains inconclusive as to whether the power savings are realizable, particularly as Bitcoin scales. Until then, ASICs and their ongoing enhancements will continue to dominate the crypto mining space and lead the charge on energy efficiency in crypto mining.

Reprogramming of the current mining chips. Against common belief, the crypto mining industry is a relatively green one. As of December 2019, Bitcoin was powered by over 70% of renewable electricity. While the benefits of using renewables are undisputed, the truth is that renewables are an intermittent source of energy and are not always reliable for Bitcoin miners, who have a constant energy requirement. Fossil fuel-based power, on the contrary, serves generally as a more steady source of energy. To strike a balance between the sustainability of the industry and sustainability more broadly, a hybrid model can be adopted, whereby renewables are used predominantly as an energy source, with fossil fuel-based power setting in during production shortages. This entails redesigning and reprogramming current mining chips to enable greater ease of toggling between the two variants of energy sources, with no disruption to the mining processes.

As cryptocurrencies continue to rise in prominence, so will the influx of competition from new providers wanting a slice of the pie. Healthy competition can be positive in that it can lead to more innovation that brings greater efficiencies and maturity to the industry. To fully capitalize on the growth of the nascent cryptocurrency market, however, incumbent chip designers will need to invest further into research and development, particularly in areas of energy optimization and power performance.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Nangeng Zhang, also known as NG, is the founder, chairman and CEO of Canaan Inc., a leading provider of supercomputing solutions. While specializing in the field of supercomputing, NG explored the potential of application-specific integrated circuit design, consequently launching the world’s first digital cryptocurrency miner based on ASIC chips and catalyzing the era of ASIC mining.