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Afraid of DeFi? Here’s how to earn 41% APY on Bitcoin without wrapping it

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The number of investors interested in yield farming has grown immensely over the past 6-months as decentralized finance (DeFi) applications became better known and easier to use. 

This has led to an uncountable number of liquidity pools offering annual percentage yields (APY) surpassing 1,000% and the total value locked in DeFi contracts has risen to billions of dollars.

Bitcoin investors who wanted a piece of the action managed to participate in DeFi yield farming by converting their BTC into tokenized formats like Wrapped BTC (WBTC) and renBTC (RENBTC). 

This allows BTC holders to interact with all of the ERC-20-based tokens, but some analysts question how decentralized the Bitcoin custody is behind those offerings; therefore, it makes sense to explore more centralized solutions.

Although it is impossible to directly extract yield on Bitcoin (BTC) deposits at these DeFi platforms, investors can still benefit from centralized services. While it is improbable to find APYs above 12% there are at least safer ways to earn yield on ‘uninvested’ Bitcoin.

Centralized services such as Bitfinex, Poloniex, BlockFi, and Nexo will typically yield 5% to 10% per year for BTC and stablecoin deposits. To increase payout, one needs to seek higher risk, which does not necessarily mean a less known exchange or intermediary. 

By trading BTC options at Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Deribit, or OKEx, an investor can comfortably achieve 40% or higher yields.

The covered call strategy has its risks

The buyer of a call option can acquire Bitcoin for a fixed price on a set future date. For that privilege, this buyer pays an upfront for the call option seller. Although the buyer might typically use this instrument as an insurance, sellers are mostly obtaining fixed income trades.

Each contract has a predetermined maturity date and strike price, so potential gains and losses can be calculated beforehand. This covered call strategy consists of simultaneously holding BTC and selling the equivalent size in call options.

It would be unfair to name it a fixed income trade, as potential losses loom whenever there is a more considerable price drop at options expiry. However, one can adjust such risk while setting up the trade. It is worth noting that limiting exposure will result in lower yields.

Expected returns for a November $9.5K covered call. Source: Deribit

The above chart represents a covered call strategy for the November expiry, yielding a 6% return in two months, equivalent to 41% APY. As previously mentioned, the covered call might present losses if the BTC price at expiry is lower than the strategy threshold level.

Although the 6% yield achieved by selling 0.5 BTC at $9K and 0.5 BTC $10K call options, the strategy needs BTC to sustain above $10K at the November 27 expiry to achieve its full return. Any level below $8,960 will result in a loss, but that is 16.6% below the current $10,750 Bitcoin price.

By selling these call options, the investors will make 0.1665 BTC ($1,957 at current price); therefore, the covered call investor should acquire the remaining 0.8335 BTC ($9,793) either via futures regular spot markets. However, if the buyer is unwilling to take this risk, it is possible to reduce the loss threshold.

It is worth noting that most derivative exchanges allow option trades starting from BTC 0.10, with CME being the only exception.

Expected returns for a November $8.5K covered call

Expected returns for a November $8.5K covered call. Source: Deribit

A 25% APY return can be achieved by selling 0.5 BTC $8K and 0.5 BTC $9K November call options. By reducing expected returns, one will only face negative outcomes below $8,370 at the November 27 expiry, 22% below the current spot price. 

Take notice of how the $313 net profit stabilizes above $9K outcomes. To achieve this equilibrium, one needs to buy $8,187 worth of BTC, either via futures or regular spot markets. The call options premium will raise the remaining BTC 0.303 ($3,257), but only the option seller gets paid beforehand.

Implied volatility drives covered call returns

Implied volatility is options markets main risk gauge, and it increases as traders perceive a higher risk of sudden price moves. This indicator will increase regardless of investors’ optimism, as volatility relies exclusively on absolute price changes. 

A constant daily 4% loss across a few weeks results in extremely low volatility, which would be the same as a fixed daily 4% gain. The volatility will increase in periods of extreme uncertainty; therefore, option sellers will demand a larger premium.

Bitcoin 3-month options implied volatility

Bitcoin 3-month options implied volatility. Source: Skew

As Skew data shows, the BTC 3-month options implied volatility currently stands at a 59% annualized basis. Despite being relatively low, the figure is still enough to provide a 41% APY using covered call strategies.

Investors can benefit from a higher reading, but the risk of suffering losses using covered calls also increases. This reflects traders’ fear of unexpected price swings; therefore, an increased implied volatility indicates higher odds of an expiry price below the options strategies’ profit threshold.

All investments carry some degree of risk

All passive yield strategies have embedded risks. While it is possible to use a stop loss on covered calls, it should be noted that options markets can be reasonably illiquid during intense BTC price swings. This means it’s important here to never close futures or spot positions independently from the options.

DeFi might have its appeal, and even if one is willing to accept the risks associated with wrapped BTC, there are unknowns from faulty smart contracts, potential DeFi protocol breaches, clogs in the Ethereum network during peak traffic and the increased fees which can reduce profits and amplify losses. Outside individual pools and DeFi apps, there’s also room for oracle price sourcing manipulation which can cause cascading liquidations.

The main advantage of the covered call is it enables investors to set their own appetite for risk and have a clearer picture of their potential profits. 

By opting for centralized solutions, investors can avoid high gas fees and the risk of being front run by wealthier or more savvy DeFi farmers.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.





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If History Rhymes, This Indicator Suggests Bitcoin May See a Parabolic Explosion

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  • Bitcoin has seen some mixed price action as of late, with bulls being unable to take control of its trend in the time following its rally up to $28,500
  • The rejection here was quite intense, and it has yet to show any signs of strength in the time following this occurrence
  • The fact that bulls have guarded against any deeper drawback is positive because it invalidates the possibility that this recent high is a blow-off top
  • One trader is now noting that there is an incredibly bullish indicator that is flashing for Bitcoin
  • He points to the cryptocurrency’s monthly RSI, noting that a monthly close above a specific level that it is nearing is historically followed by parabolic moves higher
  • In the past, these movements have had an average return of 1,010%, but their size and length seem to diminish with time

Bitcoin and the entire crypto market have declined over the past 12 hours, which appears to be the direct result of the pressure that XRP is placing on the market due to its latest selloff.

Where the market trends in the mid-term likely won’t depend on XRP, which means that this latest round of selling pressure may mark a knee-jerk reaction from investors.

One analyst is noting that Bitcoin’s monthly RSI is flashing an incredibly bullish sign for where BTC trends next.

Bitcoin Struggles to Gain Momentum Following $28,500 Rejection

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading down just over 1% at its current price of $26,700.

The crypto has been trading between the upper-$26,000 region and the lower-$27,000 region throughout the past few days.

It has yet to garner enough buy-side support to break above the heavy resistance laced throughout the lower-$28,000 region. For now, this peak could mark a blow-off top.

Indicator Suggests BTC is About to Go Parabolic

One trader explained in a recent tweet that Bitcoin could be on the cusp of seeing a parabolic move higher in the days and weeks ahead.

He points to the cryptocurrency’s monthly RSI as an indicator for this possibility.

“BTC – Monthly RSI. Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”

Bitcoin

Image Courtesy of il Capo of Crypto. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.

The coming few days should shed light on Bitcoin’s trend, as continued weakness could confirm $28,500 as a local high and lead to a deeper retrace.

Featured image from Unsplash.
Charts from TradingView.





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‘Bullish year ahead’ — Bitcoin primed for Q1 2021 gains, strength index suggests

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The monthly relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin (BTC) shows the dominant cryptocurrency is primed for another rally.

Is 2021 an ideal time for a Bitcoin rally?

The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold. When the RSI surpasses 75, it signals the asset is overbought, and when it drops below 30, it means the asset is oversold.

A pseudonymous trader known as “Crypto Capo” noted that the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is set to close above 80. Historically, when this has happened, BTC has saw a strong rally afterward.

Although the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is above 80, which is technically oversold, BTC’s RSI tends to become oversold for prolonged periods during a bull cycle.

The monthly RSI of Bitcoin. Source: Crypto Capo

Hence, traders often refer to an oversold RSI on a high time frame chart, like the monthly candle chart, to forecast an extended rally in the short term to medium term. The trader said:

“Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”

However, the trader emphasized that one indicator cannot accurately predict the price cycle of Bitcoin. Crypto Capo explained that the combination of a few indicators could serve as guidance for the future. He wrote:

“You cannot base a prediction on an indicator. What we do is combining several methods to have a guideline for the future, to see what is more likely. But in the end, we adapt to what the price does in the present.”

“Bullish year ahead”

Traders have differing perspectives on where Bitcoin is headed in 2021, but most traders remain overwhelmingly bullish.

Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michael van de Poppe said he anticipates Bitcoin to reach $65,000 to $85,000 by next year’s end. He stated:

“I’ve got to revise my view on the potential level of $BTC at the end of 2021. Through this recent surge, I’m expecting it to be between $65,000-85,000 at the end of 2021. Bullish year ahead.”

Meanwhile, the options market is pricing in a 22% chance of Bitcoin achieving $120,000 by next year, which could also serve as a potential guideline on where BTC is heading in 2021.

In the short-term, however, some traders are cautious in entering leveraged positions. A pseudonymous trader known as “TheBoot” said the ideal scenario is to wait for Bitcoin to consolidate at $25,000 or enter after the next price upsurge. The trader explained:

“No rush to enter leveraged trades on $btc right here imo. Best would be to wait and long low 25k or even mid 24k. Alternatively, wait for the next leg up and then a dip from there.”

Cointelegraph previously reported that whales have been buying Bitcoin more aggressively since Christmas, which could buoy the mid-term bull case for BTC entering into 2021.