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Bitcoin price risks even bigger pullback in Q4 after sharp rejections

Published

3 Monaten ago

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Bitcoin price is showing weakness after another sharp rejection from the $11,000 resistance level. As Bitcoin (BTC) enters the fourth quarter, the sentiment around the market remains generally cautious and neutral.

Bitcoin might face a larger pullback in the fourth quarter due to several key factors. Throughout the past three years, every September monthly candle has closed red. The September monthly candle for 2020 is also on track to close as a red candle, indicating a lack of direction.

From March through August, favorable financial conditions, a low-interest-rate environment and a multitrillion-dollar stimulus package caused Bitcoin and stocks to rally in tandem. In the upcoming months, due to the United States presidential election in November, the probability of a delayed stimulus approval is increasing. The growing uncertainty around the macro landscape and the financial markets in the U.S. could pressure BTC.

Traders are generally cautious in the short term and optimistic in the medium to long term. Technical analysts have identified key price levels for BTC as $9,800, $10,700 and $11,800. As long as Bitcoin remains in between either the $9,800–$10,700 or $10,700–$11,800 ranges, low volatility is expected. As such, while traders are cautious around the near-term trend of Bitcoin, many do not foresee a large drop.

As a potential area of interest, traders are considering the $9,600 CME gap that forms when Bitcoin price rises or falls below the CME Bitcoin futures market price after it closes for weekends or holidays. The $9,600 gap has yet to be filled, and given the tendency of most CME gaps to get filled, the level remains a target.

A short-term bearish structure

The monthly candle of Bitcoin is expected to close below $11,000, which would confirm a red candle for the month of September. In technical analysis, if a new candle closes below the closure of the previous, it’s called a “bearish engulfing.”

Additionally, Bitcoin’s monthly close would come after repeated rejections, as since Aug. 17, BTC has recorded four consecutive lower highs on the daily chart. A lower-high formation emerges when the latest peak is below the previous peak. In this instance, Bitcoin peaked at $12,468, $12,050, $11,179 and $10,950, respectively.

Bitcoin faces two bearish technical patterns and structures on the monthly and daily charts. The two time frames are considered high time-frame charts in technical analysis, which could raise the probability of a short-term pullback.

The price of Bitcoin briefly broke out of the $10,800 resistance level on Sept. 28. but a pseudonymous trader known as “Byzantine General” said it was most likely a bull trap. BTC rose to as high as $10,950 across major exchanges but was “hugging” the resistance level. When BTC struggles to cleanly break out of a key resistance level, the chance of a bull trap is high.

Bitcoin’s recent fall from $10,950 signifies rejections at the monthly, daily and hourly time frames, as they demonstrate cautious/bearish structures in the short term. When that coincides with a monthly candle closure, it could amplify a near-term downtrend.

Historical performance of BTC in the fourth quarter

The historical performance of BTC suggests a downtrend, as during the past two consecutive quarters, BTC recorded 42.46% and 13.59% drops, respectively. Given the tendency of BTC to underperform in the last quarter in the previous two years, the chances of a slow fourth quarter remain high.

However, after undergoing a halving in 2016, BTC had a positive fourth quarter, recording an increase from $613.98 to $998.33. BTC is currently in a post-halving cycle, and if it follows past trends, it could see a gradual climb over the next 12 months. In the 2016 halving cycle, BTC took 15 months to peak at $20,000, which has remained an all-time high.

An uncertain financial market

In the past month, the U.S. stock market has continued to slump due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The concerns surrounding a second wave have been amplified by the lack of stimulus and the uncertainty around vaccines. A stimulus package would alleviate pressure from the economy and distribute direct checks to individuals, raising the overall liquidity in the market.

However, Bitcoin, gold, stocks and risk-on assets are entering the fourth quarter without stimulus and with surging COVID-19 cases, and due to the election in November, Washington has been in a stimulus stalemate. House Democrats are reportedly preparing a $2.4 trillion stimulus proposal with direct payments. Whether it would be approved before the presidential election remains uncertain

Investor confidence has remained low throughout September, as a result. According to Bank of America, investors withdrew $25.8 billion from the stock market last week. This marked the biggest single-week outflow since June 2019 when trade-war fears raged. In a note, strategists at Bank of America cited the lack of clarity on the stimulus as a catalyst for the outflows, stating: “With the biggest fiscal stimulus behind us and without explicit MMT hard for policy to catalyze big upside for stocks and credit next 6 months given starting valuations.”

Although Bitcoin has increasingly decoupled from stocks and has shown more correlation with gold, it remains generally affected by the broader financial market’s sentiment. Speaking to Cointelegraph, Denis Vinokourov, head of research at crypto exchange and broker Bequant, said macro and political developments have been driving cryptocurrencies:

“Macro and political developments have become an increasingly important driver of sentiment across all markets, and digital assets are no exception. The uncertainty surrounding elections in the US is widely expected to result in plenty of volatility. Spillover risks are seen as high but what is interesting is that implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum has remained well anchored even in spite of the lacklustre spot markets price action.”

On-chain indicators are positive

Since June, on-chain indicators have continuously indicated a bullish uptrend for Bitcoin. Various on-chain indicators — ranging from whale activity, HODLing activity, address activity, hash rate and dormant supply — signal a healthy accumulation phase for Bitcoin.

For instance, Glassnode chief technical officer Rafael Schultze-Kraft cited the “Bitcoin Short Term Holder MVRV” to suggest that BTC is at a pivotal point. He said that the on-chain indicator suggests a trend reversal when it hits 1. The last time it hit 1 was in March when BTC recovered from a steep correction to $3,600. Kraft said:

“#Bitcoin STH-MVRV Ratio has been above one since April. Currently testing the support line at 1 (indicative for trend reversals) — short term holders are valuing $BTC at its realized price. #Bullish as long as we hold this level.”

Soona Amhaz, general partner at Volt Capital, referred to the address activity of the Bitcoin blockchain to pinpoint a healthy sentiment, saying it indicates substantive user growth. Overall, technical structures point toward short-term weakness and a longer-term accumulation phase. The uncertainty in the financial markets could intensify the selling pressure on BTC in the foreseeable future, but on-chain metrics depict a healthy, gradual growth rate for the network.





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Bitcoin

The next decade of sustainable crypto innovation begins today

Published

6 Minuten ago

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Dezember 29, 2020

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Since the creation of the first cryptocurrency over a decade ago, many have often been skeptical of their legitimacy, with some even dismissing them as a fraud. But in 2020, this paradigm seemed to have shifted. What has emerged is a shared recognition that Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets are here to stay and that they will play a key role in the future of global finance. 

This is not some far-fetched vision reserved to crypto-anarchists — financial actors that were traditionally wary of cryptocurrencies are now expressing confidence in their disruptive potential. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, for instance, have recently reversed their initial opposition to cryptocurrencies, becoming some of the latest to offer new banking services and offerings for the digital assets market.

Related: Will PayPal’s crypto integration bring crypto to the masses? Experts answer

As optimism and appreciation for the long term potential of cryptocurrencies continue to grow, so will the opportunities for revenue expansion among players within the ecosystem. Bitcoin miners, for instance, saw their topline figures surge by close to 50% on a month-on-month basis in November, as Bitcoin prices rallied more than 60% to above $18,000 over the same time period. Yet, in a highly competitive environment, success has largely been confined to a few industry leaders while remaining elusive to many.

For miners, gaining access to highly advanced mining equipment — one that boasts the highest level of power and cost efficiencies, and the fastest processing speeds — remains the single most critical factor to securing a competitive edge.

Related: Cryptocurrency mining profitability in 2020: Is it possible?

The evolution

The crypto mining industry has undergone a succession of substantial transformations to arrive at today’s advanced technical state. In its early days, mining was done using simple computers without any complex or high-powered devices. General-purpose central processing units, or CPUs, were all it took to produce Bitcoin. This led to a rapid expansion of the Bitcoin network, as the allure of easy money prompted an influx of new entrants — so much so that these first-generation miners were unable to keep pace with demand, rendering them obsolete in just a year’s time.

Graphics processing units were introduced next and made mining Bitcoin more efficient and profitable. Combining several GPUs became a common sight, as miners sought to further increase their mining performance and capabilities while maximizing gains. Despite these advancements, second-generation miners did not stand the test of time due to their high energy consumption and lack of long-term efficacy.

In 2011, field-programmed gate arrays, or FPGAs, emerged as the next logical step of progression. They were fast, highly energy-efficient, offered better performance and easier cooling than their predecessors. Nonetheless, FPGA miners were short-lived and eventually replaced by ASICs, which, until today, remain the dominant technology for the Bitcoin mining industry. Designed, built and optimized for the sole purpose of mining, ASICs are recognized for their superior harmonization of power consumption, performance and cost — around a million times more energy efficient and 50 million times faster in mining Bitcoin than the CPUs used in 2009.

The road ahead

Indeed, crypto mining has come a long way. Aside from performance-related developments, there have also been notable improvements to the environmental aspect of the technology, such as higher energy efficiency and faster hash rates. With a growing emphasis on sustainability, this is a trend likely to continue as chip design providers look to develop innovative solutions to cater to this evolving demand.

Two main developmental areas come to mind. First, the reengineering of current mining hardware to radically utilize less energy; and, second, a reprogramming of current mining chips to allow the use of hybrid energy for optimal cost performance.

Reengineering of the current mining hardware. Already, there are several concepts out in the market that are being researched and rigorously put to test — one of them being the use of photonic chips to perform computing. In theory, the technology appears promising, with two to three orders of magnitude better energy efficiency over current electronic processors. Yet, in reality, it remains inconclusive as to whether the power savings are realizable, particularly as Bitcoin scales. Until then, ASICs and their ongoing enhancements will continue to dominate the crypto mining space and lead the charge on energy efficiency in crypto mining.

Reprogramming of the current mining chips. Against common belief, the crypto mining industry is a relatively green one. As of December 2019, Bitcoin was powered by over 70% of renewable electricity. While the benefits of using renewables are undisputed, the truth is that renewables are an intermittent source of energy and are not always reliable for Bitcoin miners, who have a constant energy requirement. Fossil fuel-based power, on the contrary, serves generally as a more steady source of energy. To strike a balance between the sustainability of the industry and sustainability more broadly, a hybrid model can be adopted, whereby renewables are used predominantly as an energy source, with fossil fuel-based power setting in during production shortages. This entails redesigning and reprogramming current mining chips to enable greater ease of toggling between the two variants of energy sources, with no disruption to the mining processes.

As cryptocurrencies continue to rise in prominence, so will the influx of competition from new providers wanting a slice of the pie. Healthy competition can be positive in that it can lead to more innovation that brings greater efficiencies and maturity to the industry. To fully capitalize on the growth of the nascent cryptocurrency market, however, incumbent chip designers will need to invest further into research and development, particularly in areas of energy optimization and power performance.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Nangeng Zhang, also known as NG, is the founder, chairman and CEO of Canaan Inc., a leading provider of supercomputing solutions. While specializing in the field of supercomputing, NG explored the potential of application-specific integrated circuit design, consequently launching the world’s first digital cryptocurrency miner based on ASIC chips and catalyzing the era of ASIC mining.