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150,000 Mt. Gox Bitcoin won’t trigger a correction anytime soon

Published

3 Monaten ago

on


There is growing speculation that 150,000 Bitcoin (BTC) from the Mt. Gox trustee could move on Oct. 15. But many factors suggest that is highly unlikely given past records.

Between 2011 and 2013, Mt. Gox lost 850,000 BTC in the biggest hacking attack in Bitcoin history. The trustee reportedly has 150,000 BTC to repay users who lost their funds from the breach.

Yet, there are many hurdles to undergo before the refunds can be issued. The refund process has been continuously delayed since 2019, and the refunds won’t likely happen anytime soon.

The Mt.Gox trustee statement. Source: Mtgox.com

Why is there sudden speculation about the 150,000 Mt. Gox BTC moving?

On Jun. 30, the Mt. Gox trustee released a statement on the official Mtgox.com website. The trustee, in charge of redistributing the funds to former users, said the Tokyo District Court granted a deadline extension to Oct. 15. The document read:

“In light of the foregoing, the Rehabilitation Trustee filed a motion to seek an extension of the submission deadline of the rehabilitation plan at the Tokyo District Court, and, on June 30, 2020, the Tokyo District Court issued an order to extend the submission deadline for the rehabilitation plan to October 15, 2020.”

Based on this document, some investors have suggested it could cause 150,000 BTC to move, potentially rattling the market.

But there are two key reasons the trustee would not move the Bitcoin in the near term. 

First, the extension pertains to submitting the rehabilitation plan, not refunding the BTC. Simply put, the Oct. 15 deadline is for the trustee to put forward a plan, not to refund investors.

Second, the trustee has continuously requested extensions throughout the past year. An identical statement was put out in March 2020 and in April 2019, and deadline extensions were granted.

Oct. 15 is not the actual deadline for user refunds and the trustee has delayed the process several times in the past. Based on these two factors, it is safe to presume that the 150,000 BTC from the Mt. Gox trustee won’t hit markets in the short term.

Bitcoin remains resilient despite negative events

In the past week, Bitcoin has faced numerous negative events that mounted significant selling pressure on BTC. 

On Oct. 1, the United States CFTC’s charge against BitMEX immediately caused Bitcoin to pull back by over 5% while 24 hours later, U.S. President Donald Trump contracted COVID-19, causing most asset classes, including BTC, to correct.

Despite back-to-back pessimistic events, Bitcoin has shown surprising resilience throughout October. BTC still remains above $10,500, a price level that acted as a critical support area since August.

In the medium to long term, on-chain analyst Willy Woo said the Bitcoin market outlook remains positive. He said:





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Bitcoin

‘Bullish year ahead’ — Bitcoin primed for Q1 2021 gains, strength index suggests

Published

5 Minuten ago

on

Dezember 29, 2020

By


The monthly relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin (BTC) shows the dominant cryptocurrency is primed for another rally.

Is 2021 an ideal time for a Bitcoin rally?

The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold. When the RSI surpasses 75, it signals the asset is overbought, and when it drops below 30, it means the asset is oversold.

A pseudonymous trader known as “Crypto Capo” noted that the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is set to close above 80. Historically, when this has happened, BTC has saw a strong rally afterward.

Although the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is above 80, which is technically oversold, BTC’s RSI tends to become oversold for prolonged periods during a bull cycle.

The monthly RSI of Bitcoin. Source: Crypto Capo

Hence, traders often refer to an oversold RSI on a high time frame chart, like the monthly candle chart, to forecast an extended rally in the short term to medium term. The trader said:

“Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”

However, the trader emphasized that one indicator cannot accurately predict the price cycle of Bitcoin. Crypto Capo explained that the combination of a few indicators could serve as guidance for the future. He wrote:

“You cannot base a prediction on an indicator. What we do is combining several methods to have a guideline for the future, to see what is more likely. But in the end, we adapt to what the price does in the present.”

“Bullish year ahead”

Traders have differing perspectives on where Bitcoin is headed in 2021, but most traders remain overwhelmingly bullish.

Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michael van de Poppe said he anticipates Bitcoin to reach $65,000 to $85,000 by next year’s end. He stated:

“I’ve got to revise my view on the potential level of $BTC at the end of 2021. Through this recent surge, I’m expecting it to be between $65,000-85,000 at the end of 2021. Bullish year ahead.”

Meanwhile, the options market is pricing in a 22% chance of Bitcoin achieving $120,000 by next year, which could also serve as a potential guideline on where BTC is heading in 2021.

In the short-term, however, some traders are cautious in entering leveraged positions. A pseudonymous trader known as “TheBoot” said the ideal scenario is to wait for Bitcoin to consolidate at $25,000 or enter after the next price upsurge. The trader explained:

“No rush to enter leveraged trades on $btc right here imo. Best would be to wait and long low 25k or even mid 24k. Alternatively, wait for the next leg up and then a dip from there.”

Cointelegraph previously reported that whales have been buying Bitcoin more aggressively since Christmas, which could buoy the mid-term bull case for BTC entering into 2021.