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Market Wrap: Bitcoin Surges on Square News to $10.9K; December Ether Options Pile Up

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Bitcoin is flashing green as Square converts some of its cash to crypto while ether options traders are making lots of bets for December expiration.

  • Bitcoin (BTC) trading around $10,890 as of 20:00 UTC (4 p.m. ET). Gaining 2.1% over the previous 24 hours.
  • Bitcoin’s 24-hour range: $10,532-$10,962
  • BTC above its 10-day and 50-day moving averages, a bullish signal for market technicians.

Bitcoin trading on Coinbase since Oct. 6.
Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s price popped Thursday, led higher almost immediately following the announcement that payments firm Square had invested $50 million to purchase 4,709 BTC. The development pushed the price per 1 BTC to as high as $10,962 before settling to $10,890 as of press time. 

Read More: Square Puts 1% of Total Assets in Bitcoin in Surprise $50M Investment

“News that Jack Dorsey’s Square has purchased about $50 million worth of bitcoin is a definite positive that appears to have driven markets higher on the back of positive sentiment,” said Guy Hirsch, USA managing director of multi-asset brokerage eToro. “Dorsey has long been an advocate of the largest cryptocurrency, and this move reaffirms his bullish stance, and Square’s.” The stock price of Square (NYSE: SQ) also rose Thursday, in the green 1.8% at the close of trading today.

“Seeing traditional institutional firms such as Square invest into bitcoin to hold on their balance sheet after a publicly traded company such as MicroStrategy purchased $250 million worth of bitcoin as a ‘hedge against inflation’ brings significant credibility to bitcoin,” said Michael Gord, chief executive of trading firm Global Digital Assets. “The CEO of MicroStrategy even went so far as to call bitcoin superior to cash”. 

If indeed these investments are a bet against fiat, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the greenback versus a mix of other currencies, is one metric to watch. Though it has picked up since a late-August low, it’s still in the relative doldrums for 2020 and was flat, in the red 0.02% as of press time Thursday.

dxyin2020

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) in 2020.
Source: TradingView

The positive market sentiment has certainly translated into higher-than-average bitcoin daily spot volume. Major exchanges already have $332 million in volume so far Thursday, higher than the $284 daily average in the past month.

skew_btc_spot__aggregated_daily_volumes-47

Bitcoin spot volumes the past month.

While bitcoin volume is up Thursday, volatility remains low. In the options market, six-month at-the-money (ATM) volatility, the difference between option strikes to the price of bitcoin, is at 65%. The last time it was that low was back on July 31.

skew_btc_atm_implied_volatility-9

Bitcoin six-month at-the-money (ATM) volatility the past year.
Source: Skew

“The buy pressure from institutional investors is increasing, so we are seeing a nice ramp up,” said Marc Fleury, CEO of Two Prime, a crypto asset management firm. “We seem to be entering an era of a low-volatility bull market.”

Lots of ether options for December expiration

Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, was up Thursday trading around $351 and climbing 3.3% in 24 hours as of 20:00 UTC (4:00 p.m. ET). 

Read More: As DeFi Deflates, Ethereum Users Get Reprieve From Soaring Fees

Ether options traders are heavily betting on the asset’s price at the end of the year. Over 473,500 ETH in open interest is set for expiration on Dec. 25, which is approximately $166,023,00 worth of options at Thursday’s spot prices.

skew_eth_options_open_interest_by_expiry_k-1

Ether options by expiration date.
Source: Skew

Vishal Shah, an options trader and founder of derivatives exchange Alpha 5, says traders started piling up ether options positions for December a while ago. “It really started gearing up with DeFi a few months back,” he said. There’s two main reasons for the options bets, Shah added. “It’s either a levered play on DeFi doing well, or as a tail hedge against impermanent losses,” he said. Impermanent loss is when an investor contributes to a liquidity pool and can temporarily be worse off than actually just holding the asset due to protocol imbalances.

Other markets

Digital assets on the CoinDesk 20 are mostly green Thursday. Notable winners as of 20:00 UTC (4:00 p.m. ET):

One notable loser as of 20:00 UTC (4:00 p.m. ET):

Read More: BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes Leaves Role After US Charges

  • Oil was up 3%. Price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude: $41.23.
  • Gold was in the green 0.37% and at $1,894 as of press time.
  • U.S. Treasury bond yields all fell Thursady. Yields, which move in the opposite direction as price, were down most on the two-year, dipping to 0.147 and in the red 8.5%.
https://www.coindesk.com/coindesk20

The CoinDesk 20: The Assets That Matter Most to the Market



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eToro Said to Be in Talks With Goldman About Possible $5B IPO: Report

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The crypto trading/investment management platform is also considering the possibility of a merger with a special purpose acquisition company.



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Altcoin Rally Dimming Bitcoin’s Shine, Polkadot Gains 34% in One Week

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Polkadot (DOT) saw daily gains of 22.5% wrapping up an impressive week with an almost 34% rise in its value.

Bitcoin bullish run looks to have come to a halt amidst an altcoin rally which has seen relatively lower coins put up impressive performances in the past few weeks. Bitcoin dominance is gradually fading as many experts believe the biggest digital coin is backing down as some top altcoin are showing strong “moves” or signals. 

Bitcoin hit an all-time high over the weekend, the third time its price has done so in just over 2 months. The price of the biggest digital coin touched $28,400 on December 27, before a lightning drop took it to $27,000 just hours of that incredible feat. 

Bitcoin failed to hold onto the $27,000 mark as its price further dropped to $26,000 a day after and is now testing lower levels centered on $26,000 as immediate support. Reports from crypto exchanges revealed BTC/USD trading at lows of $25,830 during the early hours of December 29. 

While Bitcoin has seen red over a couple of days, some altcoins are putting up impressive numbers, giving off signals of a strong altcoin rally. Despite XRP’s current issues, the altcoin market is showing glimpses of its glory days as some digital coins are poised to see major gains over the next couple of weeks. Ethereum (ETH) is at the forefront of the rally, with its price climbing above $700 for the first time since May 2018. 

Polkadot (DOT) also saw daily gains of 22.5% wrapping up an impressive week with an almost 34% rise in its value. The coin is now the seventh-largest token by market cap. Kusama (KSM), a cousin of Polkadot, also saw its price gain 46% last week, pushing its price from $43.1 to $63. The digital token is currently trading at $56 but experts are adamant a breakout above $65 is possible as the token has rebounded off the 20-day exponential moving average ($50.90)

Speaking on the possibility of a long term altcoin rally, analyst Van de Poppe stated that altcoins are next in line to see greens. He added that the next “impulse wave” on Bitcoin next year should be able to take the market to $40,000 or $50,000, but until then, the possibility of a continuance altcoin rally is very much likely.

Although many factors could be in play with regards to the latest Bitcoin price dip, it’s recent fallout with Ripple’s XRP leads the way. Ripple was hit with a lawsuit from the United States Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) and subsequently suffered drops that left its price in a pit. XRP, the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is now trading at $0.20 as news broke that Coinbase, a major US cryptocurrency exchange has decided to suspend its trading from next month.

next Altcoin News, Bitcoin News, Cryptocurrency news, News

Crypto fanatic, writer and researcher. Thinks that Blockchain is second to a digital camera on the list of greatest inventions.



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Taylor Monahan: The Year the Narrative Became the Truth

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The year 2020, as told by the Crypto Believers, will most certainly go down in history as the year the curtain was finally pulled back.

For so long we sounded the alarm about the threat of centralized entities. For so long we warned of the unsustainable monetary policy of the United States Federal Reserve. And then, suddenly, a global pandemic begets “money printer go BRRR” begets endless inaction by those who claim to be our leaders. Finally, those outside our bubble began to question what they once knew.

This post is part of CoinDesk’s 2020 Year in Review – a collection of op-eds, essays and interviews about the year in crypto and beyond. Taylor Monahan is the founder and CEO of MyCrypto, a simple dashboard for managing all your Ethereum-based assets.

There were signs of a new, shared realization as non-believers began to quip, “If we can just print money, I shouldn’t have to pay taxes” and, “This is unsustainable. We’re screwing ourselves.” There were also signs they began to see how much absurdity dominates our lives. Discrimination didn’t end in 1863 or in 1964 or in 2019. We have never had “the lowest Fatality (Mortality) Rate in the World.” The stock market is not the economy. Their truth is not true.

Moreso, the truth seemed to be whatever those in power wanted it to be. Or rather, the truth is whatever we, those not in power, believe it to be. So long as enough people believe it to be true, it is true.

Our new reality manifested in everything from increased anxiety and depression as the world remained in a state of locked-down uncertainty, to debates about masks and potential COVID-19 treatments, to the Black Lives Matter movement coming back with a vengeance. 

One of the least-complex manifestations of the power of shared belief was the curious case of Hertz’s stock price pumping 900% in the weeks following its bankruptcy filing. It left otherwise rational, mature, market-minded adults (and Hertz itself) bewildered. As far as anyone has been able to sort out, after a lifetime of believing The Adults knew what they were doing The Kids realized the truth and took action on the not-so-secret secret that you don’t win the market by betting on the future – you win when you bet on what other people think will happen in the future. The Kids also happen to know, more than any other generation, that technology is the key to changing what other people think.

(Wikimedia)

The Hertz moment

I actually completely missed the Hertz situation when it first made headlines. I’m sure I saw the articles as I doomscrolled through another day of lockdown. But, as the story is so familiar, I didn’t even bother registering it to my memory. Crypto has been pumping and dumping and re-pumping and re-dumping empty shells of coins for years.

Hertz was especially uninteresting as it followed the classic pump-and-dump scheme, like what might be found on bitcointalk.org in 2013. Today’s decentralized finance (DeFi) token schemes are wrapped up in automated market makers, interoperability and yields, often making it hard to discern whether the shared delusions of the players are giving the tokens value, or if the perceived value of the tokens are creating the shared delusion. To complicate things, there is a third, meta layer: The players are aware they are playing a game and can predict the cycle of their shared delusion. The whole thing is a grotesque ouroboros – all simultaneously feeding itself, and feeding off itself, and birthing itself in some eternal, cyclical, scammy mindf**k.

See also: Taylor Monahan – As We Hunger for Viability, Let’s Stay True to Our Values

Well, maybe not “eternal.” The folks who “ape’d into” the DeFi things this summer had such a finite view, usually minutes or hours rather than months or years. It’s hard to grok how any DeFi thing could survive once the heavily subsidized reward period wore off. Especially if two or three or 10 freshly subsidized DeFi things had launched since. Yet they somehow did … sorta.

It’s even harder to understand how this became a dominating force of 2020 considering the intense individualism and selfishness that it both fuel, and is fueled by. We’ve managed to build thousands of “every man for himself” sub-networks on a sprawling, decentralized, cooperative, consensus network. Luckily, or perhaps unluckily if we value our humanity, decentralized consensus networks don’t care about the morality of the things running on it.

And, as much as they continue to fight me on it, I remain convinced that these half-baked farming games are unsustainable in the same way initial coin offerings (ICOs) are unsustainable, in the same way hacked smart contracts are catastrophic, in the same way the money printer cannot go BRRRRRR forever and in the same way the serpent cannot devour itself in perpetuity. 

Better system?

Bitcoin has seemingly solidified its place as an alternative, though still slightly experimental, store of value. I would talk more on this but literally everyone is talking about it and I have nothing original to add. I will admit I was wrong in 2015 and 2016 and 2017 when I said the digital gold narrative will never be more valuable than the digital cash one. Any narrative that becomes truth is more valuable than the narrative that fades from memory.

I do wonder what will ultimately become of our historically most persistent narrative, that we are creating a better world. Have we made real progress on banking the unbanked, unbanking the banked, breaking down borders and removing power from repressive regimes and corrupt cabals?

For me, crypto is a worthwhile endeavor because it can provide a viable alternative to the existing systems. Crypto can give people the gift of choice. And with that choice we can opt into the systems that benefit us and opt out of the ones that oppress us.

I wonder if this system will ever be a ‘better system’ or just ‘a system that better serves me?’

CoinDesk’s Year in Review 2020

Between the diminishing returns on truth, the ever-increasing individualism, and our submissiveness to life’s cycles, I wonder if this system will ever be a “better system” or just “a system that better serves me?”

This is important. In one, we aim to remove the system’s very ability to have a 1%. We attempt to break the cycle of oppression. We create systems to humanize any and all participants and prevent ourselves, the early adopters, the influencers and the Believers, from gaining power on the backs of others.

In the other, we simply shift the power from the oppressors of today to the oppressors of tomorrow. The oppressed devour the oppressors. The oppressors are reborn as the oppressed. The cycle continues. And then, one day, some kids show up and it is the Crypto Believers who this time must shout, “Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.”





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