Monero
BTC, XRP, ADA, XMR, ATOM
In the past three years the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has shot down several applications for a Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund. This dashed hopes of many investors who believed Bitcoin price would rally higher if an EFT was approved.
Although investors no longer pin BTC’s future on the existence of an ETF, regulators could eventually adjust their anti-crypto stance in the future.
In an interview with Cointelegraph, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce said that the regulator will have to become accommodative to innovation as several people from both the crypto space and traditional financial institutions seek their guidance.
Bloomberg’s latest crypto newsletter predicts that a Bitcoin ETF could see the light of the day if Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is elected as the next U.S. President. The author believes that a change in guard may bring regulatory clarity that could attract investments into digital assets.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360
However, even if President Donald Trump is re-elected, Bloomberg expects Bitcoin to extend its uptrend through his second term as the digital asset will be buoyed by the rising debt-to-GDP, quantitative easing, and Bitcoin hash rate.
Even if Bitcoin only rallies at half the speed of its 1,400% gain from 2016 to 2020, it would rally to $80,000 by 2024.
The long-term forecasts are encouraging and so are the short-term charts. Let’s analyze the top-5 cryptocurrencies that may outperform in the short-term.
BTC/USD
The breakout of the symmetrical triangle on Oct. 8 attracted buyers who pushed the price above the overhead resistance at $11,178 on Oct. 10. However, the bears have not yet given up completely as they sold the rally to $11,482.44 on Sep. 10.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls used the dip to buy and did not allow the price to break below $11,178. This suggests that the sentiment has changed from sell on rallies to buy on dips.
The moving averages on the verge of a bullish crossover and the relative strength index above 64 indicate that the advantage is currently with the bulls.
If the buyers can push the price above the overhead resistance at $11,500, the next stop for the BTC/USD pair could be $12,000 and then $12,460.
This bullish view will be invalidated if the pair turns down from the current levels and breaks below the 20-day exponential moving average ($10,853). Such a move will suggest that the current breakout was a bull trap.
BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The trend on the 4-hour chart has turned bullish with both moving averages sloping up and the RSI in the overbought territory. The buyers will again attempt to push the price above $11,500 and if they succeed momentum is likely to pick up.
However, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance, it could consolidate in a tight range of $11,468.98–$11,178 for some time. A break below $11,178 will be a sign of short-term weakness.
XRP/USD
The bears defended the $0.26 overhead resistance on Oct. 10, but they could not sustain the selling pressure today. This shows that the bulls are buying on every minor dip and are currently attempting to push XRP above $0.26.
XRP/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
A breakout and close (UTC time) above $0.26 will complete an inverse head and shoulders setup that has a pattern target of $0.300288. The moving averages on the verge of a bullish crossover and the RSI close to 60 suggest advantage to the bulls.
Contrary to this assumption, if the XRP/USD pair turns down from the current levels and breaks below the 20-day EMA ($0.246), it will show that the bears are aggressively shorting on rallies to $0.26.
XRP/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The bears are attempting to defend the $0.26 resistance but they have not been able to sink the price below the 20-EMA. This suggests that the bulls are accumulating on dips.
The upsloping moving averages and the RSI near 60 suggest that bulls have the upper hand in the short-term.
A break below the 20-EMA will be the first sign of weakness and the advantage will turn in favor of the bears if they can sink the price below the $0.24 support.
Conversely, if the bulls can push the price above $0.26, a new uptrend is likely. The pair could face resistance at $0.266 and then at $0.28 but the trend will remain bullish as long as the price remains above the neckline.
ADA/USD
The failure of the bears to sustain Cardano (ADA) below $0.90, between Oct. 7 to 9, attracted aggressive buying by the bulls who then pushed the price above the moving averages.
ADA/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The moving averages on the verge of a bullish crossover and the RSI near 62 suggest that the buyers have the upper hand. If they can propel the price above the neckline, it will complete a reversal setup that has a pattern target of $0.1331.
This bullish view will be invalidated if the ADA/USD pair turns down from the current levels and breaks below the moving averages. Such a move will suggest that the breakout above $0.104044 was a bull trap.
ADA/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The rebound off the immediate support at $0.1040440 suggests that the sentiment has turned positive as the bulls are viewing dips as a buying opportunity.
However, unless the bulls drive the price above the neckline, the bears will again try to sink the pair back below $0.1040440 and the 20-EMA. If they succeed, the pair could drop to the 50-simple moving average and below it to $0.90.
Conversely, if the pair rebounds off the 20-EMA, it will indicate strength and increase the possibility of a break above the neckline.
XMR/USD
Monero (XMR) is in an uptrend with both moving averages sloping up and the RSI in the overbought zone. The bulls will now try to extend the up-move to $140 and above it to $150.
XMR/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
In a strong uptrend, the corrections usually last for one to three days and the bulls view the dips to the 20-day EMA ($105.96) as a buying opportunity because it gives a low-risk entry point with a good risk to reward ratio.
However, if the XMR/USD pair turns down from the current levels and drops back below $121.427, the bears will try to drag the price to the 20-day EMA. A break below this support will be the first sign of weakness.
XMR/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The ascending triangle pattern completed on a breakout and close (UTC time) above $113.211. This bullish setup has a pattern target of $132.739. The buyers are currently attempting to sustain the price above $121.427.
If they succeed, it will suggest that $121.427 will now act as a strong support. Even if the price dips back below this level, the bulls will again try to buy the dip to the 20-EMA.
If the pair rebounds off this support, it will indicate strength and increase the possibility of a resumption of the uptrend.
ATOM/USD
Cosmos (ATOM) broke out and closed (UTC time) above the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern on Oct. 10. This breakout has seen further buying today and the bulls have pushed the price above the $5.877 resistance.
ATOM/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The ATOM/USD pair could now start a rally that may reach $7.40 and then $8.877. The 20-day EMA ($5.17) has started to turn up and the RSI has risen into the positive territory, which suggests a possible change in trend.
Contrary to this assumption, if the pair turns down from the current levels, the bears will try to sink the price back below the neckline and the 20-day EMA.
If that happens, it will indicate that the current breakout was a fake one. The trend will turn in favor of the bears if the pair drops below the right shoulder at $4.549.
ATOM/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls have pushed the price above the overhead resistance at $5.877 that could start a new uptrend. The upsloping moving averages and the RSI is in the positive territory suggest advantage to the bulls.
This positive view will be invalidated if the bulls fail to defend the breakout level during the next retest. If the price becomes pinned below the neckline this will be a sign of weakness.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
December is proving to be another blockbuster month for Bitcoin as the flow of institutional investors injecting funds into Bitcoin continues to increase.
Business intelligence firm MicroStrategy announced that it had raised $650 million worth of convertible bonds at a rate of 0.75% due in 2025. The company now plans to invest the net proceeds in Bitcoin after identifying its “working capital needs and other general corporate purposes.”
When institutional investors show such a large appetite to buy Bitcoin (BTC) near the all-time high, it is no surprise that the corrections have been shallow.
Tyler Winklevoss said in a recent interview with CNBC that institutional investors are worried about the “oncoming inflation and the scourge of inflation with all the money printing and the stimulus from the COVID pandemic lockdowns.” Hence, they have been putting money into Bitcoin.
Today, Bitcoin price surged back above the $19,000 level and it may challenge the psychological $20,000 resistance. If this level is broken out with conviction, it may create FOMO among retail traders as many have not participated in the current rally.
If money from retail investors also starts gushing in, then Bitcoin could pick up momentum and start the next leg of the up-move.
Along with Bitcoin, there are a few altcoins that may participate in the up-move next week. Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies in order to spot the critical support and resistance levels to watch out for.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin closed below the 20-day exponential moving average ($18,435) on Dec. 10 and 11. However, the long tail on the Dec. 11 candlestick shows that the bulls purchased the dip instead of panicking and dumping their positions.
The price rose above the 20-day EMA on Dec. 12 and this could have trapped some aggressive bears who went short in the past few days expecting a sharp fall. This short covering and buying by the bulls pushed the price above the descending channel today.
The price has again reached the $19,500 to $20,000 overhead resistance zone. If the bulls can thrust the price above this zone, the next leg of the uptrend could begin.
Conversely, if the price again turns down sharply from the current levels and plummets below $17,500, it could signal that a short-term top is in place. Such a move could pull the price down to the next support at $16,191.02.
The 20-day EMA has started to turn up and the relative strength index (RSI) has rebounded off the 50 level, which suggests that bulls have the upper hand.
The 4-hour chart shows an ascending triangle formation, which will complete on a breakout and close above the overhead resistance zone. This setup has a target objective of $23,576.
However, the bears are currently attempting to stall the up-move at the $19,500 resistance. If the price turns down from the current levels, the bulls are likely to buy on any dip to the 20-EMA. A strong rebound off this support will improve the prospects of a breakout above $19,500.
This bullish view will be invalidated if the BTC/USD pair turns down from the current levels and breaks below the trend line of the triangle.
A breakdown of a bullish setup traps several aggressive bulls and that could result in panic selling. If that happens, a drop to $16,191.02 may be on the cards.
ETH/USD
Ether (ETH) has broken out of the descending channel, which suggests advantage to the bulls. The price can now move up to the $622.807 to $635.456 overhead resistance zone.
The RSI has bounced off the midpoint and broken out of the downtrend line, which suggests that bulls have the upper hand.
If the bulls can push the price above the resistance zone, the next leg of the uptrend could begin. Although there could be some pit stops in between, the next target is $800.
On the other hand, if the ETH/USD pair turns down from the overhead resistance but does not give much ground, it will be a positive sign and will increase the likelihood of a breakout of the resistance zone.
This bullish view will be invalidated if the price turns down from the current levels and re-enters the channel. Such a move will suggest that the current breakout was a bull trap.
The 4-hour chart shows an ascending triangle formation, which will complete on a breakout and close above $622.807. The moving averages on the verge of a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive territory indicate that bulls have the upper hand.
This positive view will be invalidated if the price turns down from the current levels or the overhead resistance and breaks below the triangle. Such a move could result in a drop to $488.134.
XMR/USD
Monero (XMR) completed an inverse head and shoulders pattern on Dec. 7 but the bears quickly dragged the price back below the neckline on Dec. 9. However, the bulls again purchased the dip to the 20-day EMA ($133) and propelled the price back above $135.50 on Dec. 11. This suggests aggressive buying at lower levels.
The upsloping moving averages and the RSI above 66 suggest advantage to the bulls. The target objective of the breakout from the bullish setup is $167.
However, the bears may have other plans. They are likely to defend the psychological level at $150. If the price turns down from this resistance but rebounds off the $135.50 support, it will suggest that bulls are accumulating at lower levels.
On the contrary, if the price drops below the $135.50 support and the 50-day SMA ($124), it will suggest that the bears are back in the driver’s seat.
The 4-hour chart shows the formation of an ascending triangle pattern that completed on a breakout and close above $142.50. However, the XMR/USD pair has not picked up momentum and the price is stuck inside the $142.50 to $150 range.
If the bulls can thrust the price above $150, the uptrend could resume with the next target at $162.50. The upsloping moving averages and the RSI in the positive zone suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
XEM/USD
NEM (XEM) soared on Dec. 12 and the price reached the $0.27688 overhead resistance today. The bears are currently attempting to stall the up-move at this resistance.
However, if the bulls do not give up much ground from the current levels, it will suggest that traders are not booking profits in a hurry. That could keep the price range-bound near the overhead resistance.
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($0.209) and the RSI near the overhead resistance suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If the bulls can propel the price above $0.27688, the XEM/USD pair could move up to $0.3564607.
The bears are aggressively defending the overhead resistance. If the price rebounds off the 20-EMA, it will enhance the prospects of a breakout of $0.27688. The upsloping 20-EMA and the RSI in the positive zone suggest bulls have the upper hand.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks below the moving averages, a drop to the trendline is possible. A break below this support will suggest that the bulls have lost their grip.
AAVE/USD
AAVE is trading inside an ascending channel. The price turned down from the $95 overhead resistance on Dec. 8, but the positive sign is that the bulls have purchased the dip to the 20-day EMA ($77).
The RSI has once again bounced off the midpoint and the 20-day EMA has started to turn up. This suggests that the correction may be over and the bulls are back in control. The first target on the upside is a retest of the $95.
If the bulls can push the price above $95, the next leg of the up-move could begin. The $100 psychological level may act as a resistance but if the bulls can drive the price through it, the AAVE/USD pair could rise to the resistance line of the channel at $112.
This bullish view will be invalidated if the price turns down from the current levels and plummets below the support line of the channel. Such a move will suggest that the trend has turned in favor of the bears.
The price turned up from $70.564, just above the support line of the ascending channel but the bears are attempting to stall the relief rally at $86.14.
If the bulls can push the price above this resistance, the pair could rise to $95. A break above $95 could start the next leg of the uptrend.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from $86.14, the pair may form the right shoulder of a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern. This view will be negated if the price dips below the $70.50 support.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Today was a relatively uneventful day for Bitcoin (BTC) as the price continues to consolidate into a tighter range.
As mentioned by Cointelegraph contributor Rakesh Upadhyay, Bitcoin price spent the weekend consolidating within a bull pennant and the breakout to $19,418 was quickly stamped out by overhead resistance.
After retouching the pennant trendline, the price gave way, falling below the 20-MA on the 4-hour time frame and briefly losing the $19,000 mark.
Generally, most traders seem to agree that after a raging 93% rally from $10,300 to $19,888, a period of consolidation is necessary. Cointelegraph analyst Micheal van de Poppe said:
“On the higher timeframe, Bitcoin is still acting as it was last week. We are still acting in the all-time high resistance zone. I still have my eyes on $16K, which we bounced from, and $14K as these areas still could be retested as support. Holding $19K is important and if we have a daily close below $18.9K I think we’ll fall through.”
On the daily and 4-hour timeframe traders will note that the price is still notching lower highs and higher lows, a sign that the price range is beginning to narrow.
Currently the price is still holding within the pennant trendline as support but a breakthrough the structure will require a high volume move as there is persistent overhead resistance at $19,500.
As mentioned in previous analysis, a drop below the $18,800 level will see BTC search for support at $17,900, and below that the $16,000 to $15,750 range.
For the short term, risk-averse traders are likely to keep a close eye on the 4-hour chart to see if the price can again find support above the 20-MA in order to burst through the pennant. It is imporant to note that this move will require signifanct volume to avoid rejection in the $19,400-$19,500 resistance zone.
Typically, during Bitcoin’s consolidation phases altcoins pump higher but that has not been the case this time.
While a selection of DeFi tokens and other obscure altcoins have moved higher, the majority of the top-20 coins are in the red today.
This is possibly due to the fact that investors are reluctant to shift funds into altcoins while the Bitcoin price is in such an indecisive position.
Experienced crypto investors know that a strong bullish breakout from BTC could result in altcoin-to-BTC pairs being crushed, whereas a bearish breakdown in BTC price tends to result in BTC and USD altcoin pairs receiving an equally catastrophic pummeling.
A few standouts of the day are, AAVE with a 8.54% gain, Monero (XMR) which moved 5.19% higher and Waves (WAVES) which has rallied 6.23%.
According to CoinMarketCap, the overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $566.5 billion and Bitcoin’s dominance index currently at 62.6%.
The next decade of sustainable crypto innovation begins today
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