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Why a “Blue Wave” Biden Win Could Be the Best Scenario for Bitcoin

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In a new note to investors, Goldman Sachs projects “low odds” that the dollar will close the year on a high note, chiefly due to a potential “blue wave” win where Biden sweeps the vote. These poor conditions for the greenback, however, is a best-case scenario for Bitcoin, which could benefit enormously if Democrats take office.

How a Democratic Victory & Joe Biden Win Could Positively Impact Bitcoin

2020 is unarguably the most challenging year of modern times. Capping off what has been a year of fear, uncertainty, money printing, protest, and more, is the United States’ most pivotal election in years.

Biden is currently leading Trump in the polls, and markets could soon begin to price in the ever-increasing chances of a Democrat victory in the White House. Policy change due to Dems taking over may not bode well for stocks, but it could benefit Bitcoin for several key reasons.

RELATED READING | WHY THE UPCOMING US ELECTION IS BITCOIN’S BIGGEST RISK

In the past, the uncertainty leading into the campaign season and the election has kept Bitcoin’s price from retesting all-time highs. It wasn’t until the month the current President Donal Trump took office that sent Bitcoin soaring through $1,000 to a peak of $20,000 a year later.

BTCUSD Monthly New All-Time High After Presidential Election Conclusion Example | Source: TradingView

But a Biden may be even more beneficial to the future of Bitcoin than the boost the crypto asset saw the last time the dust settled on the US election. For one, democratic policy is more fostering toward technological innovation, whereas the Trump administration has recently taken a hard stance against cryptocurrencies.

However, the most critical reason has a lot more to do with green, and we don’t mean their environmental policies.

Goldman Sachs: “Low Odds” The Dollar Rebounds In 2020, Risk Of Return To 2018 Low

In a recent note to clients, Goldman Sachs tells a woeful story of a weakening dollar that has “low odds” of any positive outcome by year’s end. Co-Head of Global FX, Rates and EM Strategy Zach Pandl recommended taking short positions against the dollar across two different baskets of competing currencies.

The dollar is expected to decline even further if Biden succeeds, which is now projected at a 60% chance based on the latest poll information. “In our view, a ‘blue wave’ U.S. election and favorable news on the vaccine timeline could return the trade-weighted Dollar and DXY index to their 2018 lows,” Pandl concluded.

dollar dxy bitcoin biden blue wave

DXY Correlation Over BTCUSD Monthly Price Chart | Source: TradingView

The 2018 low Pandl points to was also just after Bitcoin’s 2017 peak, and during peak altcoin season when speculation sent the prices of other top crypto assets like Ethereum and XRP to all-time highs.

RELATED READING | DOLLAR INDEX FRACTAL SUGGESTS AN INCREDIBLE ALTCOIN SEASON IS ON THE HORIZON

If Biden wins, and as Pandl suggests, a vaccine is on track for sooner than later, the safe haven of the dollar won’t be as attractive, and it could lead to enormous growth in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies due to the dollar’s weakness.

Featured image from Deposit Photos, Chats from TradingView



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The next decade of sustainable crypto innovation begins today

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Since the creation of the first cryptocurrency over a decade ago, many have often been skeptical of their legitimacy, with some even dismissing them as a fraud. But in 2020, this paradigm seemed to have shifted. What has emerged is a shared recognition that Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets are here to stay and that they will play a key role in the future of global finance. 

This is not some far-fetched vision reserved to crypto-anarchists — financial actors that were traditionally wary of cryptocurrencies are now expressing confidence in their disruptive potential. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, for instance, have recently reversed their initial opposition to cryptocurrencies, becoming some of the latest to offer new banking services and offerings for the digital assets market.

Related: Will PayPal’s crypto integration bring crypto to the masses? Experts answer

As optimism and appreciation for the long term potential of cryptocurrencies continue to grow, so will the opportunities for revenue expansion among players within the ecosystem. Bitcoin miners, for instance, saw their topline figures surge by close to 50% on a month-on-month basis in November, as Bitcoin prices rallied more than 60% to above $18,000 over the same time period. Yet, in a highly competitive environment, success has largely been confined to a few industry leaders while remaining elusive to many.

For miners, gaining access to highly advanced mining equipment — one that boasts the highest level of power and cost efficiencies, and the fastest processing speeds — remains the single most critical factor to securing a competitive edge.

Related: Cryptocurrency mining profitability in 2020: Is it possible?

The evolution

The crypto mining industry has undergone a succession of substantial transformations to arrive at today’s advanced technical state. In its early days, mining was done using simple computers without any complex or high-powered devices. General-purpose central processing units, or CPUs, were all it took to produce Bitcoin. This led to a rapid expansion of the Bitcoin network, as the allure of easy money prompted an influx of new entrants — so much so that these first-generation miners were unable to keep pace with demand, rendering them obsolete in just a year’s time.

Graphics processing units were introduced next and made mining Bitcoin more efficient and profitable. Combining several GPUs became a common sight, as miners sought to further increase their mining performance and capabilities while maximizing gains. Despite these advancements, second-generation miners did not stand the test of time due to their high energy consumption and lack of long-term efficacy.

In 2011, field-programmed gate arrays, or FPGAs, emerged as the next logical step of progression. They were fast, highly energy-efficient, offered better performance and easier cooling than their predecessors. Nonetheless, FPGA miners were short-lived and eventually replaced by ASICs, which, until today, remain the dominant technology for the Bitcoin mining industry. Designed, built and optimized for the sole purpose of mining, ASICs are recognized for their superior harmonization of power consumption, performance and cost — around a million times more energy efficient and 50 million times faster in mining Bitcoin than the CPUs used in 2009.

The road ahead

Indeed, crypto mining has come a long way. Aside from performance-related developments, there have also been notable improvements to the environmental aspect of the technology, such as higher energy efficiency and faster hash rates. With a growing emphasis on sustainability, this is a trend likely to continue as chip design providers look to develop innovative solutions to cater to this evolving demand.

Two main developmental areas come to mind. First, the reengineering of current mining hardware to radically utilize less energy; and, second, a reprogramming of current mining chips to allow the use of hybrid energy for optimal cost performance.

Reengineering of the current mining hardware. Already, there are several concepts out in the market that are being researched and rigorously put to test — one of them being the use of photonic chips to perform computing. In theory, the technology appears promising, with two to three orders of magnitude better energy efficiency over current electronic processors. Yet, in reality, it remains inconclusive as to whether the power savings are realizable, particularly as Bitcoin scales. Until then, ASICs and their ongoing enhancements will continue to dominate the crypto mining space and lead the charge on energy efficiency in crypto mining.

Reprogramming of the current mining chips. Against common belief, the crypto mining industry is a relatively green one. As of December 2019, Bitcoin was powered by over 70% of renewable electricity. While the benefits of using renewables are undisputed, the truth is that renewables are an intermittent source of energy and are not always reliable for Bitcoin miners, who have a constant energy requirement. Fossil fuel-based power, on the contrary, serves generally as a more steady source of energy. To strike a balance between the sustainability of the industry and sustainability more broadly, a hybrid model can be adopted, whereby renewables are used predominantly as an energy source, with fossil fuel-based power setting in during production shortages. This entails redesigning and reprogramming current mining chips to enable greater ease of toggling between the two variants of energy sources, with no disruption to the mining processes.

As cryptocurrencies continue to rise in prominence, so will the influx of competition from new providers wanting a slice of the pie. Healthy competition can be positive in that it can lead to more innovation that brings greater efficiencies and maturity to the industry. To fully capitalize on the growth of the nascent cryptocurrency market, however, incumbent chip designers will need to invest further into research and development, particularly in areas of energy optimization and power performance.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Nangeng Zhang, also known as NG, is the founder, chairman and CEO of Canaan Inc., a leading provider of supercomputing solutions. While specializing in the field of supercomputing, NG explored the potential of application-specific integrated circuit design, consequently launching the world’s first digital cryptocurrency miner based on ASIC chips and catalyzing the era of ASIC mining.