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Troubles for Bitcoin as Hedge Funds Bet Against Stock Market Winners

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Bitcoin faces the prospects of undergoing broader downside corrections as hedge funds rush to short stocks that surged impressively during the coronavirus pandemic.

According to the Financial Times, some fund managers have increased their bets against the shares linked to technology, home gym equipment, grocery retail, and healthcare. Tim Campbell of Singapore-based hedge fund Longlead Capital Partners, for instance, called these stocks “the COVID over-earners.”

The co-founder/chief investment officer noted that the current earnings trajectory of some pandemic winners appears unsustainable in the long-run. He predicted that they would return to the pre-coronavirus growth rate at some point.

Bitcoin and its positive correlation with the S&P 500, the Dow Jones, and the Nasdaq Composite during the pandemic. Source: DXY on TradingView.com

Analysts have already argued that estimating the actual value of stock market gainers seems complicated, especially amid an environment of ultra-low interest rates and massive central bank and government stimulus that have supported even the worst-looking stocks during the pandemic.

Andrew Sheets, the chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley, noted that technology – the year’s best performing sector – is at the forefront of facing the most significant declines. He told FT:

“If we’re successful in getting a vaccine and the market thinks 2021 looks more normal, investors may think ‘let me sell companies where it’s as good as it gets now and buy companies with more cyclical earnings’.”

Bitcoin

Bitcoin and the US stock market surged and corrected hand-in-hand amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Analysts noted that the Federal Reserve’s near-zero interest rates, coupled with its infinite bond-buying program, trimmed yields of the US government bonds. As a result, investors’ appetite for riskier assets increased, which led them to cryptocurrencies and equities.

Moreover, the US Congress’s decision to pass a $2 trillion stimulus aid stressed the US dollar. That further prompted investors to seek havens elsewhere, primarily benefiting Bitcoin. It rose by more than 200 percent during the greenback’s decline.

A potential drop across the US stock market risks putting Bitcoin on a similar downside trail. Long-term crypto investor Gordon Gekko called it a “second wave effect” – wherein investors dump their most profitable assets to offset losses elsewhere.

It has happened in March 2020.

When the stock market showed signs of plunging harder than usual, investors de-risked their portfolios by shorting the most profitable assets for cash. As a result, gold and Bitcoin – two of the best-performing assets before the crash – plunged alongside the S&P 500, the Dow Jones, and the Nasdaq Composite.

Silver Shining

Fund managers holding serious bets against the booming stock market also face the risk of losing their capital. It is because of the hopes that Congress would pass the second coronavirus relief bill by the November 3 US presidential election.

The package, which may fare between $1.6 trillion to $2.3 trillion, would reduce the appeal of holding cash further. As a result, investors would inject more money into the stock and commodity markets based on the so-called “There-Is-No-Alternative” factor.

Bitcoin could benefit from the sentiment, as well.





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Bitcoin

‘Bullish year ahead’ — Bitcoin primed for Q1 2021 gains, strength index suggests

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The monthly relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin (BTC) shows the dominant cryptocurrency is primed for another rally.

Is 2021 an ideal time for a Bitcoin rally?

The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold. When the RSI surpasses 75, it signals the asset is overbought, and when it drops below 30, it means the asset is oversold.

A pseudonymous trader known as “Crypto Capo” noted that the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is set to close above 80. Historically, when this has happened, BTC has saw a strong rally afterward.

Although the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is above 80, which is technically oversold, BTC’s RSI tends to become oversold for prolonged periods during a bull cycle.

The monthly RSI of Bitcoin. Source: Crypto Capo

Hence, traders often refer to an oversold RSI on a high time frame chart, like the monthly candle chart, to forecast an extended rally in the short term to medium term. The trader said:

“Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”

However, the trader emphasized that one indicator cannot accurately predict the price cycle of Bitcoin. Crypto Capo explained that the combination of a few indicators could serve as guidance for the future. He wrote:

“You cannot base a prediction on an indicator. What we do is combining several methods to have a guideline for the future, to see what is more likely. But in the end, we adapt to what the price does in the present.”

“Bullish year ahead”

Traders have differing perspectives on where Bitcoin is headed in 2021, but most traders remain overwhelmingly bullish.

Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michael van de Poppe said he anticipates Bitcoin to reach $65,000 to $85,000 by next year’s end. He stated:

“I’ve got to revise my view on the potential level of $BTC at the end of 2021. Through this recent surge, I’m expecting it to be between $65,000-85,000 at the end of 2021. Bullish year ahead.”

Meanwhile, the options market is pricing in a 22% chance of Bitcoin achieving $120,000 by next year, which could also serve as a potential guideline on where BTC is heading in 2021.

In the short-term, however, some traders are cautious in entering leveraged positions. A pseudonymous trader known as “TheBoot” said the ideal scenario is to wait for Bitcoin to consolidate at $25,000 or enter after the next price upsurge. The trader explained:

“No rush to enter leveraged trades on $btc right here imo. Best would be to wait and long low 25k or even mid 24k. Alternatively, wait for the next leg up and then a dip from there.”

Cointelegraph previously reported that whales have been buying Bitcoin more aggressively since Christmas, which could buoy the mid-term bull case for BTC entering into 2021.