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Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: All Eyes on US Election, Stimulus, Tech Earnings

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Bitcoin market sentiment fared an extremely bullish setting last week as traders/investors assessed the foray of big firms into the digital currency sector, including PayPal.

The BTC/USD exchange rate began the 7-day timeframe with a decent jump – and it spent the rest of the time trading upward. That was despite the uncertainty surrounding the next US fiscal stimulus and the presidential election on November 3. Bitcoin remained the best-performing safe-haven asset after closing the week about 13 percent higher.

Another Good Start for Bitcoin

Opening Monday, BTC/USD rose 0.5 percent to trade further above $13,000, a psychological support level that traders believe will provide a firm footing for the next bull run.

Bitcoin starts the new week in green. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The fundamentals are so far supporting the rosy technical picture. This week is looking to be a busy one, with the US election and fiscal stimulus talks promising to influence the global market outlook, including that of Bitcoin.

Analysts expect the Democratic nominee Joe Biden to beat the sitting President Donald Trump, a Republican. They add that a Democratic majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives would pave the way for a bigger coronavirus relief package – of more than $2 trillion.

A section of economists also sees the stimulus as inevitable. So no matter who wins the election, the market should expect at least an aid worth $2 trillion.

Both the scenarios intend to leave the US dollar weaker, thereby raising demand for other safe-havens in both the local and foreign markets. Bitcoin serves as one of the hedging alternatives to investors. Therefore, the cryptocurrency’s connoisseurs see it trading upward post the US election.

Tech Earnings Season

Meanwhile, Bitcoin would at least hold its gains above $13,000 as significant tech players release their third-quarter earnings.

The sector has outperformed its peers largely in 2020, helped by demand for online technologies during the coronavirus-led lockdown. It now covers more than 80 percent of the total gains logged by the S&P 500 index, somewhat becoming a flagbearer of Wall Street’s impeccable performance in a recession year.

This week, the likes of Facebook, Alphabet (Google), and Apple would unveil whether or not their recent stock rallies have strong revenues as a base. Strategists note that investors would even ignore a poor financial report, given the firms’ strong growth prospects in the next 12 months.

A sustainable rally in the US stocks would reduce investors’ appetite for cash. In turn, it would mean lower selling pressure across other safe-havens, including Bitcoin.

Other takeaways:

  • The European Central Bank will release its forward guidance on Thursday. With a resurgence in the coronavirus infections in Germany, France, and other parts of the eurozone, the market expects more financial aid from the bank. Should it come, Bitcoin expects to grow higher against the euro.
  • The US dollar is likely to post seesaw price moves that may influence Bitcoin price movements on an intraday basis. Long-term weakness in the greenback is anticipated.



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Bitcoin

‘Bullish year ahead’ — Bitcoin primed for Q1 2021 gains, strength index suggests

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The monthly relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin (BTC) shows the dominant cryptocurrency is primed for another rally.

Is 2021 an ideal time for a Bitcoin rally?

The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold. When the RSI surpasses 75, it signals the asset is overbought, and when it drops below 30, it means the asset is oversold.

A pseudonymous trader known as “Crypto Capo” noted that the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is set to close above 80. Historically, when this has happened, BTC has saw a strong rally afterward.

Although the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is above 80, which is technically oversold, BTC’s RSI tends to become oversold for prolonged periods during a bull cycle.

The monthly RSI of Bitcoin. Source: Crypto Capo

Hence, traders often refer to an oversold RSI on a high time frame chart, like the monthly candle chart, to forecast an extended rally in the short term to medium term. The trader said:

“Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”

However, the trader emphasized that one indicator cannot accurately predict the price cycle of Bitcoin. Crypto Capo explained that the combination of a few indicators could serve as guidance for the future. He wrote:

“You cannot base a prediction on an indicator. What we do is combining several methods to have a guideline for the future, to see what is more likely. But in the end, we adapt to what the price does in the present.”

“Bullish year ahead”

Traders have differing perspectives on where Bitcoin is headed in 2021, but most traders remain overwhelmingly bullish.

Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michael van de Poppe said he anticipates Bitcoin to reach $65,000 to $85,000 by next year’s end. He stated:

“I’ve got to revise my view on the potential level of $BTC at the end of 2021. Through this recent surge, I’m expecting it to be between $65,000-85,000 at the end of 2021. Bullish year ahead.”

Meanwhile, the options market is pricing in a 22% chance of Bitcoin achieving $120,000 by next year, which could also serve as a potential guideline on where BTC is heading in 2021.

In the short-term, however, some traders are cautious in entering leveraged positions. A pseudonymous trader known as “TheBoot” said the ideal scenario is to wait for Bitcoin to consolidate at $25,000 or enter after the next price upsurge. The trader explained:

“No rush to enter leveraged trades on $btc right here imo. Best would be to wait and long low 25k or even mid 24k. Alternatively, wait for the next leg up and then a dip from there.”

Cointelegraph previously reported that whales have been buying Bitcoin more aggressively since Christmas, which could buoy the mid-term bull case for BTC entering into 2021.