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Market Wrap: Bitcoin Slips to $12.8K; Ether Options Traders Prefer Calls

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Major markets are in the red today, including bitcoin. Ether options traders have favored calls over the past month.

  • Bitcoin trading around $13,184 as of 20:00 UTC (4 p.m. ET). Slipping 3.6% over the previous 24 hours.
  • Bitcoin’s 24-hour range: $12,894-$13,831
  • BTC below its 10-day and 50-day moving averages, a bearish signal for market technicians.

Bitcoin trading on Bitstamp since Oct. 26.
Source: TradingView

The price of bitcoin slipped Wednesday, going as low as $12,894 around 14:00 UTC (10 a.m. ET), according to CoinDesk 20 data. Prices have picked up a bit since then, at $13,184 as of press time. 

Read More: Bitcoin Price Slips Below $13K as Stocks Slide

Katie Stockton, a technical analyst for research firm Fairlead Strategies, said Wednesday was a “risk-off” day where investors were shedding what they consider higher-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is seeing a retracement of its strong up move as risk assets trade off sharply,” Stockton told CoinDesk. Risk assets, which include global equities, slipped Wednesday.

Bitcoin’s strong move up Tuesday approached 2019’s high before losing steam. Stockton said that despite Wednesday’s respite, bitcoin still has a strong chance to pass 2019’s price zenith. “The recent breakout above the August high lends a bullish intermediate-term bias,” she added. “Uncertainty is taking its toll on the markets, but we think it will be short-lived.”

btcsince2019oct28

Daily bitcoin trading on Bitstamp since 2019.
Source: TradingView

Neil Van Huis, director of institutional trading at liquidity provider Blockfills, noted bitcoin’s mining hashrate has dropped to levels not seen since June. Older, inefficient machines are being turned off, which he sees as a huge opportunity to invest in newer mining rigs at these price levels.

btchashrateoct28

Bitcoin mining daily average hashrate. Dotted line at left is May 12 halving.
Source: Glassnode

“This is good for mining companies,” Van Huis said. “It also comes at a time when prices are rising. With that comes more investment into the space like JPMorgan and PayPal. That should, in my opinion, keep prices bullish, especially now that we cleared that $12,000-$12,500 hurdle for a bit.” 

Read More: JPMorgan’s ‘JPM Coin’ Is Live, Execs Say

In the futures market, Denis Vinokourov, head of research at digital asset prime broker Bequant, noted the rise of institutional interest on CME, which surpassed $800 million in open interest Tuesday. “Futures contracts trading at a premium to spot prices even as the October CME expiry is fast approaching this Friday,” he said.

skew_btc_futures__aggregated_open_interest-21

Bitcoin futures on CME the past month.
Source: Skew

Guy Hirsch, U.S. managing director at multi-asset brokerage eToro, said unpredictable global market fundamentals are actually a good thing for bitcoin. “The election outcome might produce a shift from a pro-business administration into an administration that is much more skeptical about free markets” just as COVID-19 cases hit record levels, he added. “[W]e could be in for a long winter that may see bitcoin potentially challenge its previous record high set back in 2017,” Hirsch told CoinDesk.

Ether options skew towards calls

Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, was up in Wednesday trading around $384 and slipping 5.6% in 24 hours as of 20:00 UTC (4:00 p.m. ET). 

The ether options market has been more favorable towards calls than puts recently. Derivatives exchange Deribit, which is by far the largest ether options venue, has seen 55% calls versus 44% puts the past month, according to data aggregator Genesis Volatility. 

Calls are bullish bets in the direction of the underlying assets (in this case, ether) while puts are bearish bets.

putcalleth

Put-call ratio on derivatives exchange Deribit the past month.
Source: Genesis Volatility

Greg Magadini, Genesis Volatility’s CEO, doesn’t see this data as necessarily providing clear direction on ether’s price, but does indicate where liquidity is pooling. 

“Seeing more activity on the call side indicates that the call legs have the most liquidity and active participation,” Magadini said. “This is useful for traders to know when structuring less liquid multi-legged trades.”

Other markets

Digital assets on the CoinDesk 20 are mostly red Wednesday. One notable winner as of 20:00 UTC (4:00 p.m. ET):

Read More: Hxro, FTX Target Retail Crypto Traders With Simplified Options Product

  • Oil was down 4.3%. Price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude: $37.26.
  • Gold was in the red 1.6% and at $1,877 as of press time.
  • U.S. Treasury bond yields were mixed, almost flat on Wednesday. Yields, which move in the opposite direction as price, were up most on the 10-year bond, jumping to 0.773 and climbing 0.44%.
https://www.coindesk.com/coindesk20

The CoinDesk 20: The Assets That Matter Most to the Market



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Altcoin Rally Dimming Bitcoin’s Shine, Polkadot Gains 34% in One Week

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Polkadot (DOT) saw daily gains of 22.5% wrapping up an impressive week with an almost 34% rise in its value.

Bitcoin bullish run looks to have come to a halt amidst an altcoin rally which has seen relatively lower coins put up impressive performances in the past few weeks. Bitcoin dominance is gradually fading as many experts believe the biggest digital coin is backing down as some top altcoin are showing strong “moves” or signals. 

Bitcoin hit an all-time high over the weekend, the third time its price has done so in just over 2 months. The price of the biggest digital coin touched $28,400 on December 27, before a lightning drop took it to $27,000 just hours of that incredible feat. 

Bitcoin failed to hold onto the $27,000 mark as its price further dropped to $26,000 a day after and is now testing lower levels centered on $26,000 as immediate support. Reports from crypto exchanges revealed BTC/USD trading at lows of $25,830 during the early hours of December 29. 

While Bitcoin has seen red over a couple of days, some altcoins are putting up impressive numbers, giving off signals of a strong altcoin rally. Despite XRP’s current issues, the altcoin market is showing glimpses of its glory days as some digital coins are poised to see major gains over the next couple of weeks. Ethereum (ETH) is at the forefront of the rally, with its price climbing above $700 for the first time since May 2018. 

Polkadot (DOT) also saw daily gains of 22.5% wrapping up an impressive week with an almost 34% rise in its value. The coin is now the seventh-largest token by market cap. Kusama (KSM), a cousin of Polkadot, also saw its price gain 46% last week, pushing its price from $43.1 to $63. The digital token is currently trading at $56 but experts are adamant a breakout above $65 is possible as the token has rebounded off the 20-day exponential moving average ($50.90)

Speaking on the possibility of a long term altcoin rally, analyst Van de Poppe stated that altcoins are next in line to see greens. He added that the next “impulse wave” on Bitcoin next year should be able to take the market to $40,000 or $50,000, but until then, the possibility of a continuance altcoin rally is very much likely.

Although many factors could be in play with regards to the latest Bitcoin price dip, it’s recent fallout with Ripple’s XRP leads the way. Ripple was hit with a lawsuit from the United States Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) and subsequently suffered drops that left its price in a pit. XRP, the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is now trading at $0.20 as news broke that Coinbase, a major US cryptocurrency exchange has decided to suspend its trading from next month.

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Crypto fanatic, writer and researcher. Thinks that Blockchain is second to a digital camera on the list of greatest inventions.



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Taylor Monahan: The Year the Narrative Became the Truth

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The year 2020, as told by the Crypto Believers, will most certainly go down in history as the year the curtain was finally pulled back.

For so long we sounded the alarm about the threat of centralized entities. For so long we warned of the unsustainable monetary policy of the United States Federal Reserve. And then, suddenly, a global pandemic begets “money printer go BRRR” begets endless inaction by those who claim to be our leaders. Finally, those outside our bubble began to question what they once knew.

This post is part of CoinDesk’s 2020 Year in Review – a collection of op-eds, essays and interviews about the year in crypto and beyond. Taylor Monahan is the founder and CEO of MyCrypto, a simple dashboard for managing all your Ethereum-based assets.

There were signs of a new, shared realization as non-believers began to quip, “If we can just print money, I shouldn’t have to pay taxes” and, “This is unsustainable. We’re screwing ourselves.” There were also signs they began to see how much absurdity dominates our lives. Discrimination didn’t end in 1863 or in 1964 or in 2019. We have never had “the lowest Fatality (Mortality) Rate in the World.” The stock market is not the economy. Their truth is not true.

Moreso, the truth seemed to be whatever those in power wanted it to be. Or rather, the truth is whatever we, those not in power, believe it to be. So long as enough people believe it to be true, it is true.

Our new reality manifested in everything from increased anxiety and depression as the world remained in a state of locked-down uncertainty, to debates about masks and potential COVID-19 treatments, to the Black Lives Matter movement coming back with a vengeance. 

One of the least-complex manifestations of the power of shared belief was the curious case of Hertz’s stock price pumping 900% in the weeks following its bankruptcy filing. It left otherwise rational, mature, market-minded adults (and Hertz itself) bewildered. As far as anyone has been able to sort out, after a lifetime of believing The Adults knew what they were doing The Kids realized the truth and took action on the not-so-secret secret that you don’t win the market by betting on the future – you win when you bet on what other people think will happen in the future. The Kids also happen to know, more than any other generation, that technology is the key to changing what other people think.

(Wikimedia)

The Hertz moment

I actually completely missed the Hertz situation when it first made headlines. I’m sure I saw the articles as I doomscrolled through another day of lockdown. But, as the story is so familiar, I didn’t even bother registering it to my memory. Crypto has been pumping and dumping and re-pumping and re-dumping empty shells of coins for years.

Hertz was especially uninteresting as it followed the classic pump-and-dump scheme, like what might be found on bitcointalk.org in 2013. Today’s decentralized finance (DeFi) token schemes are wrapped up in automated market makers, interoperability and yields, often making it hard to discern whether the shared delusions of the players are giving the tokens value, or if the perceived value of the tokens are creating the shared delusion. To complicate things, there is a third, meta layer: The players are aware they are playing a game and can predict the cycle of their shared delusion. The whole thing is a grotesque ouroboros – all simultaneously feeding itself, and feeding off itself, and birthing itself in some eternal, cyclical, scammy mindf**k.

See also: Taylor Monahan – As We Hunger for Viability, Let’s Stay True to Our Values

Well, maybe not “eternal.” The folks who “ape’d into” the DeFi things this summer had such a finite view, usually minutes or hours rather than months or years. It’s hard to grok how any DeFi thing could survive once the heavily subsidized reward period wore off. Especially if two or three or 10 freshly subsidized DeFi things had launched since. Yet they somehow did … sorta.

It’s even harder to understand how this became a dominating force of 2020 considering the intense individualism and selfishness that it both fuel, and is fueled by. We’ve managed to build thousands of “every man for himself” sub-networks on a sprawling, decentralized, cooperative, consensus network. Luckily, or perhaps unluckily if we value our humanity, decentralized consensus networks don’t care about the morality of the things running on it.

And, as much as they continue to fight me on it, I remain convinced that these half-baked farming games are unsustainable in the same way initial coin offerings (ICOs) are unsustainable, in the same way hacked smart contracts are catastrophic, in the same way the money printer cannot go BRRRRRR forever and in the same way the serpent cannot devour itself in perpetuity. 

Better system?

Bitcoin has seemingly solidified its place as an alternative, though still slightly experimental, store of value. I would talk more on this but literally everyone is talking about it and I have nothing original to add. I will admit I was wrong in 2015 and 2016 and 2017 when I said the digital gold narrative will never be more valuable than the digital cash one. Any narrative that becomes truth is more valuable than the narrative that fades from memory.

I do wonder what will ultimately become of our historically most persistent narrative, that we are creating a better world. Have we made real progress on banking the unbanked, unbanking the banked, breaking down borders and removing power from repressive regimes and corrupt cabals?

For me, crypto is a worthwhile endeavor because it can provide a viable alternative to the existing systems. Crypto can give people the gift of choice. And with that choice we can opt into the systems that benefit us and opt out of the ones that oppress us.

I wonder if this system will ever be a ‘better system’ or just ‘a system that better serves me?’

CoinDesk’s Year in Review 2020

Between the diminishing returns on truth, the ever-increasing individualism, and our submissiveness to life’s cycles, I wonder if this system will ever be a “better system” or just “a system that better serves me?”

This is important. In one, we aim to remove the system’s very ability to have a 1%. We attempt to break the cycle of oppression. We create systems to humanize any and all participants and prevent ourselves, the early adopters, the influencers and the Believers, from gaining power on the backs of others.

In the other, we simply shift the power from the oppressors of today to the oppressors of tomorrow. The oppressed devour the oppressors. The oppressors are reborn as the oppressed. The cycle continues. And then, one day, some kids show up and it is the Crypto Believers who this time must shout, “Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.”





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House Approves $2,000 Direct Payments in COVID-19 Stimulus Payouts, Looks to Senate to Vote

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There is a possibility that the Senate Republicans may want to hold onto their conservative approach in increased spending citing longer-term consequences.

The United States House of Representatives passed the votes to support the issuance of $2,000 in stimulus checks to American households or beneficiaries, with expectations from the Senate to also sign off on the higher payments. According to a report from Newsweek, the vote from the House came a day after President Donald Trump signed off the COVID-19 stimulus bill with a $600 direct payment to Americans and his unusual demand to raise the payments calling the initial proposal a “Disgrace.”

The second batch of the COVID-19 relief funds which has been marred by months of negotiation impasse over differences in the budget from both the Republicans and the Democrats in the House and Senate respectively finally saw the consent of the lawmakers and the president who recognized the need to support American families during this holidays season. The President’s proposal to boost the payments has been well received by the Democrats and marked by a 275-134 vote in the House, beating the two-third majority required to pass the bill.

Speaking ahead of the House signing off on the deal, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi noted that “the president of the United States has put this forth as something that he wants to see and part of his signing the legislation yesterday. I hope that view will be shared by the Republicans in the Senate, because we will pass this bill today.” “Republicans have a choice: vote for this legislation or vote to deny the American people the bigger paychecks this need. To reject this would be in denial of the economic challenges that people are facing and it would deny them, again, the relief they need,” added she.

Will the Senate Object to the House Ratified Higher COVID-19 Payments?

From the longer-term dispositions of the Republican-controlled Senate as seen in the months of negotiations for this new paycheck, many believe that there is a possibility that the Senate Republicans may want to hold onto their conservative approach in increased spending citing longer-term consequences.

However, many expect that a move in opposition to the higher payments will be a direct affront to the American people who needed these funds more than ever, and also to the president who is in his last days in office, barring any new developments in his attempts to overturn the results of the November 3rd Presidential elections.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., however, has noted he would force the chamber to take up the measure Tuesday but only one senator would need to object to block the bill from passing.

“Following the strong bipartisan vote in the House, tomorrow I will move to pass the legislation in the Senate to quickly deliver Americans with $2,000 emergency checks,” Schumer said in a statement Monday. “Every Senate Democrat is for this much-needed increase in emergency financial relief, which can be approved tomorrow if no Republican blocks it – there is no good reason for Senate Republicans to stand in the way.”

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Benjamin Godfrey is a blockchain enthusiast and journalists who relish writing about the real life applications of blockchain technology and innovations to drive general acceptance and worldwide integration of the emerging technology. His desires to educate people about cryptocurrencies inspires his contributions to renowned blockchain based media and sites. Benjamin Godfrey is a lover of sports and agriculture.



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