Monero
Bitcoin nerves, DeFi defiant, PayPal debut, Coinbase warning: Hodler’s Digest, Nov. 9–15
Coming every Sunday, Hodler’s Digest will help you track every single important news story that happened this week. The best (and worst) quotes, adoption and regulation highlights, leading coins, predictions and much more — a week on Cointelegraph in one link.
Top Stories This Week
Bitcoin price at $16,000 and beyond? Here are the bear and bull cases
We’re undoubtedly in a bull market right now. This week, Bitcoin hit $16,000 for the first time in years.
Even this weekend’s volatility hasn’t been enough to derail BTC’s momentum. Although prices abruptly dropped to $15,670 overnight on Sunday, traders quickly stepped in to defend $16,000.
It is exceptionally rare for Bitcoin to perform this well. The world’s biggest cryptocurrency has only closed above $16,320 on 12 days in its history — just 0.28% of the time.
Naturally, the question now is whether BTC’s strength will remain, given how it’s in touching distance of surpassing the current all-time high of $20,089.
Analysts at IntoTheBlock say there is little resistance between $16,300 and $18,750, indicating that further upside is possible.
However, with “extreme greed” flashing on the Fear & Greed Index, Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe has warned a correction is almost inevitable in the short term.
Fund execs offer $1M bets that Bitcoin’s S2F model won’t come true
PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow model, has doubled down on his assertion that BTC’s best days lie ahead, saying he has “no doubt whatsoever” that Bitcoin prices will have reached $100,000–$288,000 by December 2021.
His model has caused controversy over the years, and now, one hedge fund executive is inviting S2F enthusiasts to put their money where their mouth is.
Eric Wall, the chief investment officer at Arcane Assets, is offering a $1-million bet that Bitcoin won’t have come within 50% of PlanB’s target range by 2025, let alone by next December.
“This is not a joke. I’m willing to lock up the money for it with a 3rd party we both trust, and you must too,” he wrote.
DeFi the odds: Total user numbers up 55% in just six weeks
October was a grim month for many decentralized finance tokens. Faced with heavy losses, some were hastily proclaiming that the DeFi bubble had well and truly burst.
But wait a minute. Data from Dune Analytics shows there has been sustained, sector-wide growth in activity — with user numbers growing 55% since the start of October.
Lending protocol Compound and decentralized exchange dYdX were among DeFi’s strongest gainers, increasing their user bases over the past 30 days by 250% and 50%, respectively.
Also this week, research from IntoTheBlock suggested that institutional money is flowing into DeFi — with Yearn.finance’s YFI among the top beneficiaries. On-chain transactions of $100,000 or higher have increased by 282% over the past week, including almost $134 million worth of activity on Tuesday alone.
PayPal’s crypto trading service goes live in the U.S.
The wait is over. PayPal now allows all eligible customers in the United States to buy, sell and hold Bitcoin, Ether, Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin.
Crypto purchases are limited at $20,000 a week — double the originally announced $10,000 — and customers are set to be informed of the new services within the coming days. No fees are being charged on crypto transactions until the end of the year.
These features are also set to be unveiled globally at the beginning of 2021, and the e-commerce platform’s 26 million merchants will soon be able to accept crypto as a payment method, too.
It’ll be interesting to see whether the rollout will encourage greater levels of crypto adoption among the masses, especially in light of BTC’s recent surge. Google Trends data suggests there has been little retail interest in Bitcoin’s boom of late, indicating that institutional investors have been driving the cryptocurrency up.
EU will decide on digital euro in January 2021, ECB president says
European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde has said that the bank should reach a decision on whether to release a digital euro early next year.
However, she stressed that the ECB is not “racing to be first” in the quest to launch a central bank digital currency.
Hinting that the institution is leaning toward pushing ahead with a central bank digital currency, she added: “My hunch — but this is a decision that will be taken collectively — is that we might well go in that direction.”
And Lagarde also revealed that it will probably take “two, three, four years” for a digital euro to see the light of day.
This week, a Deutsche Bank report warned that this non-urgent approach to CBDCs might not be good enough.
Germany’s largest banking institution said it is confident that CBDCs will replace cash in the future and said the U.S. and Europe could suffer consequences unless it starts catching up now.
“They may find that their companies are forced to adopt the digital currencies and policies of other countries as payment mediums,” Deutsche Bank wrote.
Winners and Losers
At the end of the week, Bitcoin is at $16,036.69, Ether at $455.47 and XRP at $0.27. The total market cap is at $459,967,203,314.
Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers of the week are SushiSwap (94.55%), THORChain (72.34%)and Uniswap (50.27%). The top three altcoin losers of the week are HedgeTrade (-14.86%), The Midas Touch Gold (-13.63%) and Augur (13.35%).
For more info on crypto prices, make sure to read Cointelegraph’s market analysis.
Most Memorable Quotations
“XRP would have been declared as a security if the SEC understood cryptos. This is a classic case of a market being manipulated by a bag-holder.”
Peter Brandt, veteran trader
“There’s a lot of scope for upside. Most of the gains that come are the year after the halvening, and we’re seven months into that year after the halvening, and Bitcoin’s doing what it should do.”
Brian Kelly, BK Asset Management
“This is the death knell of Bitcoin. It was fun whilst it lasted. $3k here we come.”
Crypto Emporium
“Many levels beneath the current price are untested on the weekly timeframe. A healthy way to build up a new cycle is the backtesting of previous resistance levels as new areas of support.”
Michaël van de Poppe, Cointelegraph analyst
“Looking for validation that Bitcoin whales are confident in their assets? The number of addresses holding at least 10,000 $BTC has just matched a 2020 high of 111. Additionally, those with 1,000–9,999 $BTC are now just 6 below the ATH of 2,135 wallets.”
Santiment
“[In January 2021] we will make the decision as to whether or not we go forward with the digital euro. My hunch — but this is a decision that will be taken collectively — is that we might well go in that direction.”
Christine Lagarde, European Central Bank president
“#Apple could generate $100 billion or more in shareholder value if they integrated #Bitcoin into Apple Pay, built a secure crypto wallet into the iPhone, and began buying #BTC with their Treasury Reserves.”
Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy CEO
“I bet $1,000,000 that the S2FX model will be broken less than five years from now. This is not a joke. I’m willing to lock up the money for it with a third party we both trust, and you must too. I define ‘broken’ = it won’t have reached even 50% of its target range.”
Eric Wall, Arcane Assets chief investment officer
“If you have failed to report holding Bitcoin or other virtual currencies on your past returns or filed an incomplete or misleading picture of your cryptocurrency holdings, the time to act to correct this is now.”
The Tax Law Office of David W. Klasing
“People ask if I still believe in my model. To be clear: I have no doubt whatsoever that #bitcoin S2FX is correct and #bitcoin will tap $100K-288K before Dec2021.”
PlanB
Prediction of the Week
Macro factors could bring Bitcoin to $1 trillion market cap, strategic investor says
Lyn Alden believes Bitcoin’s growing network effect, coupled with favorable macroeconomic factors, may bring its market capitalization to $1 trillion in the next few years.
The strategic investor said that the environment generated by the coronavirus pandemic favors Bitcoin.
Central banks have been forced to embark on money-printing sprees to shield their economies of late, while interest rates have been at historic lows.
All of this makes scarce assets that retain their value in an inflationary environment, such as gold and Bitcoin, far more appealing.
Over the coming years, she’s predicting there will be a significant capital spillover from traditional assets into the world’s leading cryptocurrency.
FUD of the Week
U.S. law firm says IRS is coming after Coinbase users who evade taxes
If you’re a Coinbase user in the U.S., listen up.
A boutique Californian tax firm has warned that the IRS is stepping up its efforts against those who fail to comply with tax and reporting requirements.
Klasing Associates said: “If you have failed to report holding Bitcoin or other virtual currencies on your past returns or filed an incomplete or misleading picture of your cryptocurrency holdings, the time to act to correct this is now.”
The accountants added that it will be too late to make amends once an audit or a criminal tax investigation has begun.
The firm’s warning came off the back of Coinbase’s first-ever transparency report, which was released back in October. It said that the hundreds of information requests filed by U.S. bodies such as the IRS should serve as a “major wake-up call” to crypto owners.
“This data makes it clear that the IRS is requesting information from Coinbase for the express purpose of checking it against its own taxpayer data and looking for discrepancies where holdings on Coinbase have not been reported on taxpayers’ returns,” the firm added.
Sam Bankman-Fried believes even ETH 2.0 can’t handle DeFi’s potential growth
Ethereum is about to launch a brand-new blockchain that will substantially increase the number of transactions per second it can handle. But according to Sam Bankman-Fried, even this upgrade won’t be futureproof.
The FTX exchange co-founder has claimed Ethereum 2.0 won’t be able to handle decentralized finance’s continued growth, which has already seen transaction fees go through the roof.
He told the Defiant podcast that Ethereum was holding DeFi back, and the only solution was to start building on other networks.
Bankman-Fried claims to have tested more than 30 blockchains, including Ethereum, before deciding to build his DeFi project Serum on the Solana blockchain due to its speed and infrastructure.
He also predicted that DeFi could one day be used by 1 billion people worldwide and said radical action is needed to ensure that blockchains can cope with such a user base. Setting out what’s needed, the entrepreneur added: “Not just 100 times faster than Ethereum, we need, like, a million times faster than Ethereum.”
Crypto crimes declined in 2020 but DeFi hacks are on the rise, report warns
Cryptocurrency-related crimes have slowed down in 2020… but the decentralized finance sector has become a new hotbed for hacks and thefts, according to CipherTrace.
The blockchain analytics firm said total losses from crypto thefts, hacks and fraud dropped from $4.4 billion in 2019 to $1.8 billion over the first 10 months of 2020.
Although these statistics seem really encouraging on the face of it, they don’t tell the whole story. DeFi hacks were “virtually negligible” in 2019, but now account for 20% of all losses.
“Companies and individuals have rushed DeFi products to market that have not gone through security verification and validation. […] So people are figuring out that there’s a weakness here,” CipherTrace CEO Dave Jevans said.
Best Cointelegraph Features
As Bitcoin price rises, institutions get down with digital assets
Institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to rise as bullish sentiment around BTC prevails.
Simple in practice: Crypto education is key to curbing phishing scams
Even though wallet operators have a large role to play in protecting funds, customers also need to educate themselves to avoid phishing scams.
Silence is not golden: OKEx still quiet as customers seek answers
The way OKEx has handled its nearly month-long withdrawal ban has left many of the company’s loyal customers confused and angry.
December is proving to be another blockbuster month for Bitcoin as the flow of institutional investors injecting funds into Bitcoin continues to increase.
Business intelligence firm MicroStrategy announced that it had raised $650 million worth of convertible bonds at a rate of 0.75% due in 2025. The company now plans to invest the net proceeds in Bitcoin after identifying its “working capital needs and other general corporate purposes.”
When institutional investors show such a large appetite to buy Bitcoin (BTC) near the all-time high, it is no surprise that the corrections have been shallow.
Tyler Winklevoss said in a recent interview with CNBC that institutional investors are worried about the “oncoming inflation and the scourge of inflation with all the money printing and the stimulus from the COVID pandemic lockdowns.” Hence, they have been putting money into Bitcoin.
Today, Bitcoin price surged back above the $19,000 level and it may challenge the psychological $20,000 resistance. If this level is broken out with conviction, it may create FOMO among retail traders as many have not participated in the current rally.
If money from retail investors also starts gushing in, then Bitcoin could pick up momentum and start the next leg of the up-move.
Along with Bitcoin, there are a few altcoins that may participate in the up-move next week. Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies in order to spot the critical support and resistance levels to watch out for.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin closed below the 20-day exponential moving average ($18,435) on Dec. 10 and 11. However, the long tail on the Dec. 11 candlestick shows that the bulls purchased the dip instead of panicking and dumping their positions.
The price rose above the 20-day EMA on Dec. 12 and this could have trapped some aggressive bears who went short in the past few days expecting a sharp fall. This short covering and buying by the bulls pushed the price above the descending channel today.
The price has again reached the $19,500 to $20,000 overhead resistance zone. If the bulls can thrust the price above this zone, the next leg of the uptrend could begin.
Conversely, if the price again turns down sharply from the current levels and plummets below $17,500, it could signal that a short-term top is in place. Such a move could pull the price down to the next support at $16,191.02.
The 20-day EMA has started to turn up and the relative strength index (RSI) has rebounded off the 50 level, which suggests that bulls have the upper hand.
The 4-hour chart shows an ascending triangle formation, which will complete on a breakout and close above the overhead resistance zone. This setup has a target objective of $23,576.
However, the bears are currently attempting to stall the up-move at the $19,500 resistance. If the price turns down from the current levels, the bulls are likely to buy on any dip to the 20-EMA. A strong rebound off this support will improve the prospects of a breakout above $19,500.
This bullish view will be invalidated if the BTC/USD pair turns down from the current levels and breaks below the trend line of the triangle.
A breakdown of a bullish setup traps several aggressive bulls and that could result in panic selling. If that happens, a drop to $16,191.02 may be on the cards.
ETH/USD
Ether (ETH) has broken out of the descending channel, which suggests advantage to the bulls. The price can now move up to the $622.807 to $635.456 overhead resistance zone.
The RSI has bounced off the midpoint and broken out of the downtrend line, which suggests that bulls have the upper hand.
If the bulls can push the price above the resistance zone, the next leg of the uptrend could begin. Although there could be some pit stops in between, the next target is $800.
On the other hand, if the ETH/USD pair turns down from the overhead resistance but does not give much ground, it will be a positive sign and will increase the likelihood of a breakout of the resistance zone.
This bullish view will be invalidated if the price turns down from the current levels and re-enters the channel. Such a move will suggest that the current breakout was a bull trap.
The 4-hour chart shows an ascending triangle formation, which will complete on a breakout and close above $622.807. The moving averages on the verge of a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive territory indicate that bulls have the upper hand.
This positive view will be invalidated if the price turns down from the current levels or the overhead resistance and breaks below the triangle. Such a move could result in a drop to $488.134.
XMR/USD
Monero (XMR) completed an inverse head and shoulders pattern on Dec. 7 but the bears quickly dragged the price back below the neckline on Dec. 9. However, the bulls again purchased the dip to the 20-day EMA ($133) and propelled the price back above $135.50 on Dec. 11. This suggests aggressive buying at lower levels.
The upsloping moving averages and the RSI above 66 suggest advantage to the bulls. The target objective of the breakout from the bullish setup is $167.
However, the bears may have other plans. They are likely to defend the psychological level at $150. If the price turns down from this resistance but rebounds off the $135.50 support, it will suggest that bulls are accumulating at lower levels.
On the contrary, if the price drops below the $135.50 support and the 50-day SMA ($124), it will suggest that the bears are back in the driver’s seat.
The 4-hour chart shows the formation of an ascending triangle pattern that completed on a breakout and close above $142.50. However, the XMR/USD pair has not picked up momentum and the price is stuck inside the $142.50 to $150 range.
If the bulls can thrust the price above $150, the uptrend could resume with the next target at $162.50. The upsloping moving averages and the RSI in the positive zone suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
XEM/USD
NEM (XEM) soared on Dec. 12 and the price reached the $0.27688 overhead resistance today. The bears are currently attempting to stall the up-move at this resistance.
However, if the bulls do not give up much ground from the current levels, it will suggest that traders are not booking profits in a hurry. That could keep the price range-bound near the overhead resistance.
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($0.209) and the RSI near the overhead resistance suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If the bulls can propel the price above $0.27688, the XEM/USD pair could move up to $0.3564607.
The bears are aggressively defending the overhead resistance. If the price rebounds off the 20-EMA, it will enhance the prospects of a breakout of $0.27688. The upsloping 20-EMA and the RSI in the positive zone suggest bulls have the upper hand.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks below the moving averages, a drop to the trendline is possible. A break below this support will suggest that the bulls have lost their grip.
AAVE/USD
AAVE is trading inside an ascending channel. The price turned down from the $95 overhead resistance on Dec. 8, but the positive sign is that the bulls have purchased the dip to the 20-day EMA ($77).
The RSI has once again bounced off the midpoint and the 20-day EMA has started to turn up. This suggests that the correction may be over and the bulls are back in control. The first target on the upside is a retest of the $95.
If the bulls can push the price above $95, the next leg of the up-move could begin. The $100 psychological level may act as a resistance but if the bulls can drive the price through it, the AAVE/USD pair could rise to the resistance line of the channel at $112.
This bullish view will be invalidated if the price turns down from the current levels and plummets below the support line of the channel. Such a move will suggest that the trend has turned in favor of the bears.
The price turned up from $70.564, just above the support line of the ascending channel but the bears are attempting to stall the relief rally at $86.14.
If the bulls can push the price above this resistance, the pair could rise to $95. A break above $95 could start the next leg of the uptrend.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from $86.14, the pair may form the right shoulder of a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern. This view will be negated if the price dips below the $70.50 support.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Today was a relatively uneventful day for Bitcoin (BTC) as the price continues to consolidate into a tighter range.
As mentioned by Cointelegraph contributor Rakesh Upadhyay, Bitcoin price spent the weekend consolidating within a bull pennant and the breakout to $19,418 was quickly stamped out by overhead resistance.
After retouching the pennant trendline, the price gave way, falling below the 20-MA on the 4-hour time frame and briefly losing the $19,000 mark.
Generally, most traders seem to agree that after a raging 93% rally from $10,300 to $19,888, a period of consolidation is necessary. Cointelegraph analyst Micheal van de Poppe said:
“On the higher timeframe, Bitcoin is still acting as it was last week. We are still acting in the all-time high resistance zone. I still have my eyes on $16K, which we bounced from, and $14K as these areas still could be retested as support. Holding $19K is important and if we have a daily close below $18.9K I think we’ll fall through.”
On the daily and 4-hour timeframe traders will note that the price is still notching lower highs and higher lows, a sign that the price range is beginning to narrow.
Currently the price is still holding within the pennant trendline as support but a breakthrough the structure will require a high volume move as there is persistent overhead resistance at $19,500.
As mentioned in previous analysis, a drop below the $18,800 level will see BTC search for support at $17,900, and below that the $16,000 to $15,750 range.
For the short term, risk-averse traders are likely to keep a close eye on the 4-hour chart to see if the price can again find support above the 20-MA in order to burst through the pennant. It is imporant to note that this move will require signifanct volume to avoid rejection in the $19,400-$19,500 resistance zone.
Typically, during Bitcoin’s consolidation phases altcoins pump higher but that has not been the case this time.
While a selection of DeFi tokens and other obscure altcoins have moved higher, the majority of the top-20 coins are in the red today.
This is possibly due to the fact that investors are reluctant to shift funds into altcoins while the Bitcoin price is in such an indecisive position.
Experienced crypto investors know that a strong bullish breakout from BTC could result in altcoin-to-BTC pairs being crushed, whereas a bearish breakdown in BTC price tends to result in BTC and USD altcoin pairs receiving an equally catastrophic pummeling.
A few standouts of the day are, AAVE with a 8.54% gain, Monero (XMR) which moved 5.19% higher and Waves (WAVES) which has rallied 6.23%.
According to CoinMarketCap, the overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $566.5 billion and Bitcoin’s dominance index currently at 62.6%.
If History Rhymes, This Indicator Suggests Bitcoin May See a Parabolic Explosion
‘Bullish year ahead’ — Bitcoin primed for Q1 2021 gains, strength index suggests
The new ‘Bank of England’ is ‘no bank at all’
-
Bitcoin4 Monaten agoBitcoin and cryptocurrency are no hedge for inflation
-
Regulation3 Monaten agoCongress weighs crypto payments and fintech lending in hearing today
-
Bitcoin3 Monaten agoMicroStrategy CEO seems to embrace Bitcoin maximalism
-
Altcoin3 Monaten agoDfinance: Layer 2 Blockchain Network
-
Cryptocurrency4 Monaten agoBank of England is Planing to Adopt Digital Currency
-
Monero9 Monaten agoSophisticated Mining Botnet Identified After 2 Years
-
Market4 Monaten ago
The request could not be satisfied
-
Blockchain3 Monaten agoThe US is number one…in blockchain patents
