Bitcoin price must break this level to extend 6-week winning streak
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1 Monat ago
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Bitcoin price has been showing significant strength as Bitcoin (BTC) rallied by more than 60% in a matter of six weeks, surging from $10,000 to $16,500 and leaving many investors behind.
These investors were waiting for the close of the CME gap at $9,600, which didn’t occur. However, can the markets expect a correction to happen, or is further strength likely for the markets?
Bitcoin posts sixth consecutive green weekly candle
BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows some crucial levels to watch. If Bitcoin’s price wants to continue its upward momentum, the previous resistance zone has to flip for support.
A similar example is shown through the previous breakout at $13,200. This area acted as resistance before the breakout but immediately flipped to become new support. This support/resistance flip warranted further continuation to $16,500.
The $15,500–$15,700 area implies the same critical construction as the previous $13,200 area. Holding the $15,500–$15,700 area means further upward continuation is likely, while a breakdown confirms the bearish divergence that should push the price down. This downward move may even see BTC drop to the $14,000 level.
A correction to $12,000 is still on the table
BTC/USDT 1-week chart. Source: TradingView
The weekly time frame shows a precise resistance level at $12,000, which was broken six weeks ago. The next massive resistance zone is found between $15,750 and $16,500, which was hit last week.
However, is a continuation likely after such a massive surge? One argument is that there are still many untested levels beneath the current spot price where liquidity can be found.
Moreover, the sentiment has flipped from bearish to euphorically bullish as more institutions jump on the Bitcoin bandwagon, so a pullback shouldn’t come as a surprise.
As the chart shows, a correction toward $12,000 could still occur, which used to be a critical level. This level broke after holding for two years. However, a retest of this zone didn’t occur.
Investors and traders should watch this level as a potential entry of interest.
Fear & Greed Index says the market is overheated
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index measures different variables to gauge current market sentiment, which is still 90 out of 100. This level is qualified as “extreme greed.”
This level was only reached once before. This previous one marked the top of the bull run in June 2019.
Of course, it’s not an entirely reliable indicator, and traders and investors shouldn’t blindly anticipate their strategy based on this one metric. Nevertheless, it gives useful insight into the current state of euphoria in the market.
Given that FOMO — fear of missing out — is setting in, a correction would put everyone back on their feet again. As previously stated, such a pullback would actually be very healthy for an overheated market.
Levels to watch on lower time frames
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The four-hour chart shows a clear uptrend since the breakout at $10,000. However, there are some crucial levels to hold to sustain this momentum.
The red box identifies the liquidity above the recent high. To keep climbing higher, an apparent breakthrough in this resistance zone has to occur in which the $16,500 area immediately flips for support. Otherwise, the breakout will most likely become a fakeout and just a tap for liquidity before the market reverses.
As previously discussed, the $15,600–$15,750 area has to hold for more upside, with the next significant area of resistance at around $17,500. If that area fails to hold as support, the next support zone is found at $14,800 to $15,000. A potential bearish support/resistance flip of the $15,600–$15,800 area will likely trigger more downside.
If this happens, the next areas of support will then likely be $13,700 to $13,900 and $12,800 to $13,200.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
If History Rhymes, This Indicator Suggests Bitcoin May See a Parabolic Explosion
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17 Minuten ago
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Dezember 29, 2020
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Bitcoin has seen some mixed price action as of late, with bulls being unable to take control of its trend in the time following its rally up to $28,500
The rejection here was quite intense, and it has yet to show any signs of strength in the time following this occurrence
The fact that bulls have guarded against any deeper drawback is positive because it invalidates the possibility that this recent high is a blow-off top
One trader is now noting that there is an incredibly bullish indicator that is flashing for Bitcoin
He points to the cryptocurrency’s monthly RSI, noting that a monthly close above a specific level that it is nearing is historically followed by parabolic moves higher
In the past, these movements have had an average return of 1,010%, but their size and length seem to diminish with time
Bitcoin and the entire crypto market have declined over the past 12 hours, which appears to be the direct result of the pressure that XRP is placing on the market due to its latest selloff.
Where the market trends in the mid-term likely won’t depend on XRP, which means that this latest round of selling pressure may mark a knee-jerk reaction from investors.
One analyst is noting that Bitcoin’s monthly RSI is flashing an incredibly bullish sign for where BTC trends next.
Bitcoin Struggles to Gain Momentum Following $28,500 Rejection
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading down just over 1% at its current price of $26,700.
The crypto has been trading between the upper-$26,000 region and the lower-$27,000 region throughout the past few days.
It has yet to garner enough buy-side support to break above the heavy resistance laced throughout the lower-$28,000 region. For now, this peak could mark a blow-off top.
Indicator Suggests BTC is About to Go Parabolic
One trader explained in a recent tweet that Bitcoin could be on the cusp of seeing a parabolic move higher in the days and weeks ahead.
He points to the cryptocurrency’s monthly RSI as an indicator for this possibility.
“BTC – Monthly RSI. Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”
Image Courtesy of il Capo of Crypto. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.
The coming few days should shed light on Bitcoin’s trend, as continued weakness could confirm $28,500 as a local high and lead to a deeper retrace.
Featured image from Unsplash.
Charts from TradingView.
‘Bullish year ahead’ — Bitcoin primed for Q1 2021 gains, strength index suggests
Published
38 Minuten ago
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Dezember 29, 2020
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The monthly relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin (BTC) shows the dominant cryptocurrency is primed for another rally.
Is 2021 an ideal time for a Bitcoin rally?
The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold. When the RSI surpasses 75, it signals the asset is overbought, and when it drops below 30, it means the asset is oversold.
A pseudonymous trader known as “Crypto Capo” noted that the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is set to close above 80. Historically, when this has happened, BTC has saw a strong rally afterward.
Although the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is above 80, which is technically oversold, BTC’s RSI tends to become oversold for prolonged periods during a bull cycle.
The monthly RSI of Bitcoin. Source: Crypto Capo
Hence, traders often refer to an oversold RSI on a high time frame chart, like the monthly candle chart, to forecast an extended rally in the short term to medium term. The trader said:
“Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”
However, the trader emphasized that one indicator cannot accurately predict the price cycle of Bitcoin. Crypto Capo explained that the combination of a few indicators could serve as guidance for the future. He wrote:
“You cannot base a prediction on an indicator. What we do is combining several methods to have a guideline for the future, to see what is more likely. But in the end, we adapt to what the price does in the present.”
“Bullish year ahead”
Traders have differing perspectives on where Bitcoin is headed in 2021, but most traders remain overwhelmingly bullish.
Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michael van de Poppe said he anticipates Bitcoin to reach $65,000 to $85,000 by next year’s end. He stated:
“I’ve got to revise my view on the potential level of $BTC at the end of 2021. Through this recent surge, I’m expecting it to be between $65,000-85,000 at the end of 2021. Bullish year ahead.”
Meanwhile, the options market is pricing in a 22% chance of Bitcoin achieving $120,000 by next year, which could also serve as a potential guideline on where BTC is heading in 2021.
In the short-term, however, some traders are cautious in entering leveraged positions. A pseudonymous trader known as “TheBoot” said the ideal scenario is to wait for Bitcoin to consolidate at $25,000 or enter after the next price upsurge. The trader explained:
“No rush to enter leveraged trades on $btc right here imo. Best would be to wait and long low 25k or even mid 24k. Alternatively, wait for the next leg up and then a dip from there.”
Cointelegraph previously reported that whales have been buying Bitcoin more aggressively since Christmas, which could buoy the mid-term bull case for BTC entering into 2021.
Here’s What History Says To Expect From Bitcoin In 2021
Published
3 Stunden ago
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Dezember 29, 2020
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Bitcoin has had an explosive breakout year as a maturing financial asset,. The cryptocurrency is finally being considered by institutional investors for the first time, during a year that will go down in history for unprecedented money printing.
The asset’s hardcoded digital scarcity is a primary driver of its boom and bust cycles, and in the year following each block reward halving, magic happens. With the new year right around the corner, here’s a look back at past crypto market cycles for a glimpse at what to expect from Bitcoin in 2021.
Looking Back At Historical Bitcoin Market Cycles
All markets are cyclical and go through distinct phases of bear and bull trends. These cycles can take place over the course of decades, or a handful of years. In crypto, cycles often move faster than traditional assets due to the always-on, 24/7 market.
But because Bitcoin is just over a decade old, there are only a couple of boom and bust cycles at which to glean any useable data. In technical terms, when Bitcoin breaks its former all-time high, the new bull market is on.
Fundamentally, this occurs every four years following the asset’s block reward halving. This built-in mechanism slashes the supply of BTC in half at a time when demand is beginning to resume.
RELATED READING | NY TIMES BESTSELLING AUTHOR: BITCOIN S2F IS FLAWED, NOT MATHEMATICALLY SOUND
The combined effect of suddenly diminished supply and growing demand throws buying and selling equilibrium so out of balance that price appreciates exponentially.
2020 has acted as the ideal example of the impact each halving can have on the market. Bitcoin went from “a fad” to full-blown FOMO in less than nine months, all because supply and demand is so favorable to positive ROI.
And while 2020 was definitely a breakout year for a bullish Bitcoin, it is next year that will make a new wave of Bitcoin billionaires.
Halving years are marked in blue. In the year following, the cryptocurrency goes full parabolic | Source: BLX on TradingView.com
Move Over 2020, Why 2021 Will Be The Cryptocurrency’s Best Year Yet
Glancing at the chart above and it’s shocking to see just how high Bitcoin has climbed in twelve years. During the twelve years of trading, the cryptocurrency has had three distinct halvings, cutting the reward miners receive from 50 to 25 BTC, then from 25 to 12.5 BTC, to the current 6.25 BTC.
Each time this happens, demand begins to so drastically outweigh the limited supply, the asset goes parabolic and rises exponentially.
RELATED READING | BITCOIN BULL RUN IS OFFICIAL ACCORDING TO MONTHLY RSI, MORE BULLISH THAN 2017
In the two post-halving years on record, the first resulted in well over 6,000% ROI and the second just under 2,000% ROI. What could 2021 bring crypto investors?
Another 2,000-6,000% return isn’t likely simply due to the law of diminishing returns, however, even a 400% increase from current levels would result in a price of $125,000 per BTC.
Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com