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Bitcoin Indicator Suggests Bull Market Is Still in Early Phase

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Bitcoin has plenty of scope to extend its current rally, a price indicator suggests, even as the cryptocurrency is fast closing on the record high near $20,000 set three years ago.

With prices rising by 80% to levels above $18,000 in the past six weeks, the cryptocurrency’s Mayer Multiple – the ratio of price to the 200-day moving average – has risen to a 16-month high of 1.67. However, the metric is still well short of the 2.4 threshold that has historically signaled the final leg of the bull markets.

The Mayer Multiple flashed similar values around bitcoin‘s second mining reward halving in July 2016. Back then, bitcoin was trading at $650 and went on to hit highs near $20,000 in December 2017.

The ratio rose above 2.4 on Dec. 1, 2017, following which bitcoin doubled in value to $20,000 in just two weeks before falling back to $12,000 on Dec. 22. Similar price action was observed in April and November 2013 after the ratio rose above 2.4. Bitcoin also topped out at $13,880 at the end of June 2019 with the ratio rising above 2.4.

With the Mayer indicator currently hovering at 1.67, bitcoin appears to be in the early stages of the bull market, with plenty of room to extend the rally from the low of $3,867 seen since mid-March.

According to Nischal Shetty, CEO of Mumbai-based crypto exchange WazirX, bitcoin is replicating price moves seen following previous halvings – four-yearly reductions in the rewards for miners. The cryptocurrency underwent its third halving on May 11, when prices were around $8,600.

While the recent sharp rise from $10,000 looks similar to the surge from $6,000 to $20,000 seen in November-December 2017, this time may be different. Institutions appear to have been the primary drivers of the latest rally, while the one seen three years ago was driven by speculative frenzy and panic buying by retail investors.

Google Trends, a barometer used to gauge retail interest in trending topics, is currently returning a value of 13 for the worldwide search query “bitcoin price.” That’s significantly lower than the value of 93 observed in early December 2017.

That’s a likely sign that FOMO is yet to take hold of the market. Retail investors are usually the last to join a rally. As such, increased retail participation is widely considered a sign of an asset nearing a major top. 

The Google search data appears to validate the Mayer Multiple’s signal that the market is not yet “euphoric” and that the ongoing rally has legs.

WazirX’s Shetty expects retail investors to jump in once prices rise above $20,000.

At press time, bitcoin is changing hands near $18,030, representing a 150% year-to-date gain, according to The CoinDesk 20.

Disclosure: The author holds small position in bitcoin and litecoin.



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Grayscale’s AUM Hits $19B, Up from $16.4B Announced Week Ago

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While it may be too early to project the possible performance of Grayscale in 2021, the spate of patronage the company recorded in the last two quarters of 2020 looks quite inspiring.

In what confirms the continued embrace of Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins by institutional investors and the big-money clients, Grayscale’s total Assets Under Management (AUM) has been reported to top $19 billion, a significant uplift from the $16.4 billion reported a week ago. According to a report by CoinDesk, Grayscale hit this AUM milestone on December 28, and Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust holds by far the largest chunk of the total assets at $16.3 billion.

The recent rally of Bitcoin to new highs as recorded in the past days started as a chain reaction that took its precedent months ago when Wall Street firms and institutional investors began betting big on Bitcoin. The investment made by the likes of MicroStrategy Incorporated (NASDAQ: MSTR), Square Inc (NYSE: SQ), and PayPal Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: PYPL) did not just help put Bitcoin in the limelight through mainstream media, it also prompted the embrace of the digital assets by other firms.

With this chain reaction, the price of Bitcoin continued to soar in response to boosted demand for the coin, and institutions like Grayscale that serves institutional investors benefited from this new demand, and hence, the continued increase in the firm’s AUM. Besides BTC, Grayscale’s Ethereum (ETH) AUM is now worth $2.1 billion, while the bulk of smaller holdings in Litecoin (LTC), XRP, and ZCash amongst others helped Grayscale’s total AUM to reach the new milestone.

Grayscale’s AUM May See More Boost in 2021

While it may be too early to project the possible performance of Grayscale in the coming year 2021, the spate of patronage the company recorded in the last two quarters of 2020 makes the case for improved performance provided the tempo is sustained.

Just as has been noted earlier, the continued embrace of cryptocurrency assets by highly liquid companies will continue to have a positive reaction on the price of Bitcoin, and by extension, this will even make more people pick interest in BTC. As a relatively young asset class, Bitcoin and altcoins have tremendous room to grow as the adoption rate is still not optimized owing to certain regulatory provisions in most countries, Grayscale and other hedge funds have enough room to compete for new clients entering the space.

With Grayscale been among the institutions at the forefront of helping to drive the acceptance of BTC, ETH, and other digital currencies, enjoying the dividends of its works through impressed AUM figures does not come as much of a surprise.

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Benjamin Godfrey is a blockchain enthusiast and journalists who relish writing about the real life applications of blockchain technology and innovations to drive general acceptance and worldwide integration of the emerging technology. His desires to educate people about cryptocurrencies inspires his contributions to renowned blockchain based media and sites. Benjamin Godfrey is a lover of sports and agriculture.





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eToro Said to Be in Talks With Goldman About Possible $5B IPO: Report

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The crypto trading/investment management platform is also considering the possibility of a merger with a special purpose acquisition company.



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Altcoin Rally Dimming Bitcoin’s Shine, Polkadot Gains 34% in One Week

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Polkadot (DOT) saw daily gains of 22.5% wrapping up an impressive week with an almost 34% rise in its value.

Bitcoin bullish run looks to have come to a halt amidst an altcoin rally which has seen relatively lower coins put up impressive performances in the past few weeks. Bitcoin dominance is gradually fading as many experts believe the biggest digital coin is backing down as some top altcoin are showing strong “moves” or signals. 

Bitcoin hit an all-time high over the weekend, the third time its price has done so in just over 2 months. The price of the biggest digital coin touched $28,400 on December 27, before a lightning drop took it to $27,000 just hours of that incredible feat. 

Bitcoin failed to hold onto the $27,000 mark as its price further dropped to $26,000 a day after and is now testing lower levels centered on $26,000 as immediate support. Reports from crypto exchanges revealed BTC/USD trading at lows of $25,830 during the early hours of December 29. 

While Bitcoin has seen red over a couple of days, some altcoins are putting up impressive numbers, giving off signals of a strong altcoin rally. Despite XRP’s current issues, the altcoin market is showing glimpses of its glory days as some digital coins are poised to see major gains over the next couple of weeks. Ethereum (ETH) is at the forefront of the rally, with its price climbing above $700 for the first time since May 2018. 

Polkadot (DOT) also saw daily gains of 22.5% wrapping up an impressive week with an almost 34% rise in its value. The coin is now the seventh-largest token by market cap. Kusama (KSM), a cousin of Polkadot, also saw its price gain 46% last week, pushing its price from $43.1 to $63. The digital token is currently trading at $56 but experts are adamant a breakout above $65 is possible as the token has rebounded off the 20-day exponential moving average ($50.90)

Speaking on the possibility of a long term altcoin rally, analyst Van de Poppe stated that altcoins are next in line to see greens. He added that the next “impulse wave” on Bitcoin next year should be able to take the market to $40,000 or $50,000, but until then, the possibility of a continuance altcoin rally is very much likely.

Although many factors could be in play with regards to the latest Bitcoin price dip, it’s recent fallout with Ripple’s XRP leads the way. Ripple was hit with a lawsuit from the United States Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) and subsequently suffered drops that left its price in a pit. XRP, the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is now trading at $0.20 as news broke that Coinbase, a major US cryptocurrency exchange has decided to suspend its trading from next month.

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Crypto fanatic, writer and researcher. Thinks that Blockchain is second to a digital camera on the list of greatest inventions.



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