Did Ethereum just bottom vs. Bitcoin? This is the last big hurdle before $600
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1 Monat ago
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All eyes have been on Bitcoin price in recent weeks as the world’s biggest cryptocurrency rallied by more than 60% in a matter of weeks.
However, the focus may soon shift to Ethereum’s Ether (ETH) as it approaches the final resistance zone before a big potential breakout. This is not only the case with the U.S. dollar pair but also with the Bitcoin (BTC) pair, as the latter may have just reached its cycle low.
Could this mean that there’s an alt season on the horizon? The signals are certainly getting stronger by the day. Let’s take a looks at the charts.
ETH/USD must break resistance at $450 to break out
ETH/USDT 1-week chart. Source: TradingView
The weekly chart of Ether is fighting the final massive resistance zone before $600, with $800 on the horizon thereafter.
This resistance zone was rejected heavily in the summer, after which a retest of the $300 area occurred. This support level has held, which means that a retest of this resistance area is now on the table.
As stated, Ether’s price made a new higher high, after which the $310 support/resistance flip warranted a higher low. This indicates a bullish uptrend, where further continuation to $800 may just be a matter of time.
ETH/BTC finds the bottom?
ETH/BTC 1-week chart. Source: TradingView
The weekly chart for ETH/BTC, however, shows a clear rejection at the 0.04 sats resistance. This rejection marks the high of the current range. Through this mark, a retest of the 0.026 sats area was the likely outcome.
Therefore, traders should have anticipated such a retest because such levels are often retested before confirmation of a breakout. And because quarter four isn’t the best period for altcoins, Ether might be close to finding a bottom in the BTC pair.
In that regard, the vertical lines mark the bottom of previous retraces, which all bottomed out in December.
In other words, the retrace may be coming to an end if history repeats itself once more, which means the next alt season could occur in the first quarter of 2021 and bring Ether closer to $800.
Bitcoin dominance is rising
BTC Dominance 1-week chart. Source: TradingView
The weekly Bitcoin dominance chart has been showing a clear rally in the past few months. Several arguments can be made for this surge.
One of them is the historical and cyclical pattern, during which altcoins tend to underperform in the fourth quarter of the year.
However, the resistance zone around 66% to 68% is unlikely to break further up, as the market is currently seeing a support/resistance flip here. The Bitcoin dominance was already rejected once at this resistance zone.
If history repeats, a drop toward 56% to 57% is very likely to occur for Bitcoin dominance, which would be a very bullish sign for altcoin traders.
Buy the dip if ETH drops to $350?
ETH/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
However, traders shouldn’t become too bullish at resistance, which is where Ether is at right now. A correction is likely, given that the Fear & Greed Index is currently showing “extreme greed,” comparable to the levels seen at the peak high of June 2019.
If such a correction occurs, levels around $320 to $340 may be a great opportunity to enter an ETH position.
If Ether establishes support at that range and starts to attack the resistance at $460 to $480 again, a massive breakout and impulse wave toward $800 would be a very likely outcome.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin price rally cools down as Polkadot gains 34% in first week of ‘altseason’
Published
10 Stunden ago
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Dezember 29, 2020
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Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $26,000 on Dec. 29 as fresh fallout from Ripple’s threatened U.S. lawsuit was felt throughout crypto markets.
Cryptocurrency market overview. Source: Coin360
BTC price dips as Coinbase halts XRP trading
Data from Cointelegraph Markets, Coin360 and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting lows of $25,830 during Tuesday trading.
$27,000 support failed to hold overnight, sparking a retest of lower levels which now center on $26,000. At the weekend, Bitcoin hit all-time highs of $28,400 before swiftly reversing.
The latest losses come as XRP, the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, hits $0.23 thanks to major U.S. exchange Coinbase opting to suspend trading from next month. The reason is a lawsuit from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which threatens to classify XRP as an unlicensed security and make trading it all but impossible.
“There is going to be a rangebound construction, after which 2021 will most likely break out again,” Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe summarized about Bitcoin’s short-term perspectives in a video update on Monday.
Analyst braced for altseason
Van de Poppe is eyeing altcoins as next in line to see major gains. XRP notwithstanding, the market is already showing signs of life, with Ether (ETH) climbing above $700 for the first time since May 2018 this week.
Another winner on Tuesday was Polkadot (DOT), now the seventh-largest token by market cap, which saw a 22.5% daily rise, capping weekly performance of nearly 34%.
For Van de Poppe, the next “impulse wave” on Bitcoin in 2021 should take the market to $40,000 or $50,000, but “until then, altcoins will most likely do well.”
He additionally pointed to a likely top in Bitcoin market cap dominance, which at almost 70% should soon give way to altcoin presence. December tends to see BTC dominance peaks, with 2017, the time of Bitcoin’s first attempt to crack $20,000, a notable comparison.
Dynamic Set Dollar faces “massive test” as stablecoin falls as low as $.27
Published
2 Tagen ago
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Dezember 28, 2020
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While wild price action on Bitcoin and Ethereum have claimed the attention of most traders over the Christmas weekend, a select sect of crypto traders are following an experiment playing out in real-time that may have implications for the future of stablecoins: the fate of Dynamic Set Dollar.
Dynamic Set Dollar and its DSD token is an algorithmic stablecoin project designed to — eventually — track the United States Dollar on a 1-1 ratio with DSD. During expansionary cycles, such as one that led DSD as high as $3 per token last week, users are rewarded with freshly-printed “rebased” tokens for providing liquidity.
According to Avalanche blockchain platform founder Emin Gün Sirer, however, developers of protocols like DSD face a much tricker task during price dumps like the one DSD is currently experiencing: incentivizing users to adjust the amount of tokens in circulation. In DSD’s case, holders can burn their tokens at any time for “coupons” which they can redeem at any point within 30 days so long as DSD is above $1 per token — hypothetically enabling them to reap significant profit.
“These mechanisms rely on whales who will jump in and out of the coin in order to stabilize its price around the intended target,” said Sirer in an interview with Cointelegraph. “And they implicitly assume that the whales share the exact same worldview as the coin’s designers: that the stablecoin should be worth $1. But if the whales do not share this view themselves, […] the coins can fail and break their intended peg.”
In a Twitter thread on Saturday, Sirer noted that this disconnect between game theoretics and developer intentions can lead participants in a protocol to identifying a Schelling point/price peg, but not the one developers had in mind:
To use technical jargon, there may indeed be a Schelling point, but that point may reside somewhere other than the designer’s intended $1. Let me illustrate.
These dicey dynamics have led other observers, such as Ari Paul, the chief investment officer at BlockTower Capital, to conclude that the project is indistinguishable from a “pump and dump.” Decentralized finance (DeFi) maven Tyler Reynolds, however, believes that if DSD pulls through, it could mean that it’s established itself as “the next big decentralized stablecoin.”
These just look like pump and dumps to me♂️. Not necessarily by design, or the fault of the team, but how many Ample’s do we need? Those in early and out early make a ton of money. By the time people buy off of influencer tweets, they’re probably losing 60%+ within a month.
For Sirer, these kinds of uncertainties are to be expected — and traders need to take them into account.
“Because the science behind these experiments is not yet well-established, there is considerable risk and traders need to carry out their own research,” he said. “Personally, I look for three critical components: uses for the stable coin beyond just speculation; an incentive mechanism that offers realistic, modest yields during periods of stability; and a dedicated, well-capitalized, and competent team behind the coin.”
So far, the market seems to think Dynamic Set Dollar clears the bar. After hitting a low of $.27 earlier today, DSD has been climbing steadily and sits at $.63 at press time. Moreover, intrepid block explorers have noticed significant on-chain volumes indicating that whales are indeed buying and burning DSD for coupons:
789k $DSD spent on coupons what a chadhttps://t.co/aVJan57lgt
Still, Sirer warms that even if DSD recovers, it could be subject to future gut-punch dumps.
“Algorithmic stablecoins all incorporate feedback loops designed to dampen oscillations around the targeted peg value,” he said. “They seem to do best when they are trading close to the target peg, and not so well when they diverge. A coin that veers into dangerous territory and then recovers might very well be subject to similar oscillations in the future.”
Aside from price action and traders’ fortunes, however, Sirer says these experiments are also key to pushing DeFi forward. Sirer points to MakerDAO, Balancer, DyDx and Uniswap as previous algorithmic experiments that have become “genuinely useful instruments that provide critical functionality.”
And in the end, as the science gets better, projects like DSD will eventually achieve long-term viability, he concluded.