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First Mover: What China Crackdown Means for $18K Bitcoin as Dimon Passes on Tea

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Bitcoin was flat to slightly lower after briefly climbing Wednesday above $18,000 for the first time since December 2017. 

“There is a tsunami of buying power up against reluctant sellers,” Charlie Morris, CEO of the cryptocurrency fund manager ByteTree, wrote in a note to clients. “These buyers are putting real money behind Bitcoin, not the old dribs and drabs normally seen from retail investors.”

In traditional markets, European shares fell and U.S. stock futures pointed to a lower open amid concerns over new coronavirus-related restrictions and lockdowns. Gold weakened 0.5% to $1,863 an ounce. 

Market Moves

Bitcoin’s breathtaking rally for the past couple of months has been attributed to all sorts of grand macroeconomic reasons, from the need for a safe haven as the pandemic ravages the global economy once more to marvelous projections about the future role of the cryptocurrency in finance.

Yet what if the recent run-up was merely the result of miners in China having a hard time finding a place to sell their inventory for the kind of hard cash that they need to pay the bills? In other words, fewer new bitcoin may be hitting the market and that’s what’s driving prices higher. That’s an explanation explored in Omkar Godbole’s article on CoinDesk Wednesday.

According to recent note from QCP Capital on its Telegram channel, miners in China are seeing their bank accounts and credit cards frozen as the government tries to crack down on money laundering. That’s a big deal for bitcoin because 70% of its mining power comes from China.

In the process, the government’s squeeze is also affecting a lot of cryptocurrency exchanges catering to Chinese customers, most notably OKEx and Huobi; some questions have been raised about what happened to a couple of executives at such firms, as CoinDesk’s Muyao Shen reported last week. OKEx suspended withdrawals on Oct. 16 when founder Mingxing “Star” Xu was rumored to have been taken into police custody. It announced Thursday that it “will be resuming withdrawals on or before November 27”  as Xu is now said to be a free man again. 

Over the summer, OTC traders in China also felt the heat, and they had a hard time getting access to cash as well.

For all the talk about how bitcoin is the future staring us right in the face with no social distance or mask, utilities companies, landlords and maintenance employees still need to be paid in fiat. Their bills aren’t denominated in satoshis but in yuan. Thus, there’s always a need for miners to trade into local currency and get on with whatever they do in their lives since many public service providers in China don’t exactly accept tether. According to QCP Capital, a survey done by Colin Wu showed that 74% of miners claim they have trouble selling their inventory to cover operating expenses.

To be sure, Wu’s survey may not have been conducted with the most rigid of standards. And the calendar still insists that this year is 2020. And if there’s one thing this year has taught the world it’s that surveys should be taken with a great of salt. Nonetheless, it’s a data point.

(QCP Capital)

Bitcoin’s gains since the start of October have been nothing short of phenomenal. Its price is up about 65% since the start of last month. And over the past few weeks, some of China’s biggest exchanges started seeing accounts frozen and executives all of a sudden, er, out of the office at the moment.

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(Shuai Hao/CoinDesk Research)

Meanwhile, volume on bitcoin has been healthy, with $1.6 billion traded Wednesday on some of the major exchanges, as CoinDesk’s Daniel Cawrey reported. Open interest in bitcoin options have shot up to a record high of over $4 billion, double what it was in mid-October. What’s more, positions in the options market are as bullish as they have ever been.

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(Skew)

About 900 bitcoin are mined every day. At current prices, that’s worth just $16 million. However, in a month, it adds up to nearly $500 million and the lion’s share of that is from China.  

This is an interesting case where the supply curve may be shifting inward just as the demand curve is shifting outward. Either one of those would, all things being equal, raise prices. And while we may now be witnessing both, it’s good to remember that a sudden return to the previous condition for either one of those curves could drop prices as fast as it raised them.  

Bitcoin Watch

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Bitcoin’s recovering “put-call skew” could show investors hedging against potential price pullback.
(Skew)

Bitcoin is taking a breather, having chalked out a steep rally to three-year highs above $18,000 in the past six weeks.

At press time, bitcoin is trading near $17,700, having faced rejection above $18,000 multiple times in the past 24 hours. Some investors are beginning to position for a deeper pullback with the cryptocurrency struggling to establish a foothold above $18,000.

The one-month implied volatility, which is mainly determined by the demand for call and put options, jumped from roughly 55% to a four-month high of 70.5% in the past two days, suggesting increased expectations for price turbulence over the next four weeks.

Alongside that, the spread between the cost of puts or bearish bets and calls eased, as evidenced by the recovery in the one-, three-, and six-month put-call skews. Notably, the one-month gauge bounced from -27% to 14%, according to data source Skew.

The numbers indicate increased demand for put options – a sign of investors hedging against a potential price pullback.

What’s Hot

  • JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said blockchain will have a pivotal role in the future of finance even if bitcoin, the No.1 cryptocurrency by market capitalization that made blockchain famous, is not his “cup of tea.” (CoinDesk)
  • Bitcoin’s price surge may be driven as much by a drying up in supply as by an increase in demand. That’s because Chinese miners are struggling to sell their crypto in ways that would quickly get them much-needed cash in the face of a government crackdown on local exchanges. (CoinDesk)
  • Ethereum Classic Labs, the Ethereum Classic blockchain’s biggest supporter, released Wrapped ETC, which allows ethereum classic holders to participate in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space which is based on the Ethereum blockchain, the chain that Ethereum Classic split from after a contentious hard fork in 2016. (CoinDesk)
  • OKB, the native token for leading crypto derivatives exchange OKEx, rallied more than 13% Wednesday on rumors that the firm’s founder, Mingxing “Star” Xu, had been released from police custody in China. (CoinDesk)
  • Netherlands-based cryptocurrency exchange Bitonic says it has been “forced” to bring in extra verification measures due to requirements from the country’s central bank. (CoinDesk)

Analogs

The latest on the economy and traditional finance

  • Dollar up on COVID-19 case rise, gains curbed by Fed easing expectations (Reuters) The dollar strengthened on Thursday as broad optimism about COVID-19 vaccines ran into worries about rising infection numbers and risks to the fragile global economic recovery.
  • Stock Futures Slide Amid Fresh Lockdowns (WSJ) Weekly jobless claims data and existing-home sales numbers will offer fresh cues on the pace of economic recovery as Covid-19 cases rise.
  • Treasury yields slump amid state coronavirus restrictions (CNBC) A handful of states and cities in the U.S. are closing nonessential businesses, limiting public and private gatherings and imposing mask mandates.
  • Dollar Loses to Euro as Payment Currency for First Time in Years (Bloomberg) The euro was the most used currency for global payments last month, the first time it has outpaced the dollar since February 2013.

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Opyn Upgrade Aims to Add Capital Efficiency and Liquidity to DeFi Options Market

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Opyn, a marketplace for decentralized finance (DeFi) options, has rolled out a host of new features in its updated protocol that aim to make the crypto options markets more efficient and liquid. 

While Opyn entered DeFi with an insurance-like product for governance tokens such as compound, its focus has since pivoted to the options market in the digital asset space. According to Zubin Koticha, co-founder of Opyn, the pivot is driven both by user interest and by the sort of hurdles decentralized finance currently faces. 

“The biggest issue with DeFi is that [in] traditional finance, you don’t need super over-collateralization,” said Koticha. He added that the differing requirements on capital also eat into DeFi’s competitiveness with traditional finance. 

Put simply, options are financial contracts that give users the right to buy or sell an underlying instrument at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. Depending on what they make of market trends, options allow traders to bet on the future bullish or bearish nature of the market. 

While options have long existed in traditional finance they are relatively new to the crypto space and hence come with their own hurdles. 

Koticha pointed out that under Opyn’s earlier version users needed to put up 100% of the strike price, the agreed-upon price for the option, as collateral in order to mint and sell one. This differs from traditional options markets where the requirements can be significantly lower. 

According to Opyn, the update will add a host of new features to its options marketplace, including cash settlement for options without the need to exchange underlying assets, the ability for yield-earning assets to be used as collateral for options, and margin improvements for options. 

“We changed our system from physical settlement to cash settlement,” said Koticha. Noting that while traditional markets also cater to needs to settle options in physical commodities like grain, he said there is no such physical delivery need in the crypto space and hence little need to actually exchange the asset. Instead, only the difference in price needs to be delivered.  

Although the overall thrust of changes at Opyn are geared toward added efficiencies in how decentralized finance handles capital, the changes are only part of the upgrades in the pipeline. Koticha said Opyn is also plotting a protocol upgrade that will add the functionality to net short and long options together, thereby freeing up more capital. 

Earlier in August, Opyn discoveredf a vulnerability on its platform when attackers were able to exploit a bug and walk away with $370,000. According to report by Cointelegraph, the bug allowed attackers to double-spend Opyn’s oToken and thereby steal the collateral put up by users. 

In response, Opyn laid out in a blog post a set of measures it would adopt to prevent another such exploit and also compensated users affected by it. According to Koticha, the platform has continued to build on its security by performing additional audits and adding a functionality to pause the system. 

While a central kill-switch seems counterintuitive to the ever-bustling crypto markets, Koticha said that with plans to launch a governance token in the future Opyn wants to transfer the kill-switch controls to decentralized governance for the long run. 



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Grayscale’s AUM Hits $19B, Up from $16.4B Announced Week Ago

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While it may be too early to project the possible performance of Grayscale in 2021, the spate of patronage the company recorded in the last two quarters of 2020 looks quite inspiring.

In what confirms the continued embrace of Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins by institutional investors and the big-money clients, Grayscale’s total Assets Under Management (AUM) has been reported to top $19 billion, a significant uplift from the $16.4 billion reported a week ago. According to a report by CoinDesk, Grayscale hit this AUM milestone on December 28, and Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust holds by far the largest chunk of the total assets at $16.3 billion.

The recent rally of Bitcoin to new highs as recorded in the past days started as a chain reaction that took its precedent months ago when Wall Street firms and institutional investors began betting big on Bitcoin. The investment made by the likes of MicroStrategy Incorporated (NASDAQ: MSTR), Square Inc (NYSE: SQ), and PayPal Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: PYPL) did not just help put Bitcoin in the limelight through mainstream media, it also prompted the embrace of the digital assets by other firms.

With this chain reaction, the price of Bitcoin continued to soar in response to boosted demand for the coin, and institutions like Grayscale that serves institutional investors benefited from this new demand, and hence, the continued increase in the firm’s AUM. Besides BTC, Grayscale’s Ethereum (ETH) AUM is now worth $2.1 billion, while the bulk of smaller holdings in Litecoin (LTC), XRP, and ZCash amongst others helped Grayscale’s total AUM to reach the new milestone.

Grayscale’s AUM May See More Boost in 2021

While it may be too early to project the possible performance of Grayscale in the coming year 2021, the spate of patronage the company recorded in the last two quarters of 2020 makes the case for improved performance provided the tempo is sustained.

Just as has been noted earlier, the continued embrace of cryptocurrency assets by highly liquid companies will continue to have a positive reaction on the price of Bitcoin, and by extension, this will even make more people pick interest in BTC. As a relatively young asset class, Bitcoin and altcoins have tremendous room to grow as the adoption rate is still not optimized owing to certain regulatory provisions in most countries, Grayscale and other hedge funds have enough room to compete for new clients entering the space.

With Grayscale been among the institutions at the forefront of helping to drive the acceptance of BTC, ETH, and other digital currencies, enjoying the dividends of its works through impressed AUM figures does not come as much of a surprise.

next Altcoin News, Bitcoin News, Cryptocurrency news, News

Benjamin Godfrey is a blockchain enthusiast and journalists who relish writing about the real life applications of blockchain technology and innovations to drive general acceptance and worldwide integration of the emerging technology. His desires to educate people about cryptocurrencies inspires his contributions to renowned blockchain based media and sites. Benjamin Godfrey is a lover of sports and agriculture.





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eToro Said to Be in Talks With Goldman About Possible $5B IPO: Report

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The crypto trading/investment management platform is also considering the possibility of a merger with a special purpose acquisition company.



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