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The Many Reasons Why The Dollar Could Soon Put A Damper On Bitcoin Bullishness

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Bitcoin has just set a new all-time high, is trading just below $20,000, and is more bullish than its ever been as the digital narrative takes hold during the tail end of the pandemic. 

But as the top cryptocurrency is directly opposed to the dollar, it is especially sensitive to extreme movements in the global reserve currency. The flight to cash caused Black Thursday, and according to technicals, another flash-type move could be coming as part of an aggressive last attempt to save the dying greenback.

Bitcoin’s Greatest Adversary Could Soon Soar In Final Show Of Strength Before Collapse

Two separate narratives have dominated the financial world all throughout 2020. The first is the weakening dollar, caused by unprecedented money printing in response to the pandemic and messy United States politics and social issues.

The global superpower and its almighty dollar – the current reigning global reserve currency – are losing their leadership role.

That leads to the second narrative: the emergence of Bitcoin as digital gold. Gold has long been the asset most investors bearish on fiat currencies like the dollar turn to. But with Bitcoin acting as a far better version of gold than the precious metal itself, the dollar may have finally met its match.

Bitcoin has become the best performing asset in USD terms of 2020, and that trend only looks to continue into the future. However, in the short-term, the DXY Dollar Currency Index could be signaling a fast and furious reversal in the cryptocurrency.

The dollar could soon see a sharp reversal if the signal works as well as the last perfected setup | Source: DXY on TradingView.com

Today’s daily DXY candle has triggered a perfected TD 9 buy signal. The last perfected TD 9 setup on the daily chart, was back at the top of the Black Thursday spike as investors cashed out everything they could into USD in panic.

RELATED READING | GOLD BEGINS BREAKDOWN AGAINST BITCOIN, TRIGGERING 90% DECLINE ON PER OZ BASIS

If the move is anywhere near as sharp, given that cases of the virus are once again surging to the highest levels yet, it could prompt another panic-type reaction in markets.

dollar dxy bitcoin btc comparison

Several hidden bullish signals are building on dollar daily timeframes | Source: DXY on TradingView.com

There are also several more warning signs when looking at the DXY – which is a basket of forex currencies weighted against the dollar. A hammer reversal candle is forming on the daily, which if you recall triggered a TD 9 buy setup. Two hidden bullish divergences on Stoch and RSI, support a potential close and reversal inside the Bollinger Bands. When this happens, at least a rise to the middle-BB takes place. If the asset rises through it, it’s a confirmation to long the dollar.

DXY Dollar Currency Index  To Deal Devastating Blow To Crypto, But Bull Run Will Recover

However, zooming out to high timeframes, things aren’t looking as bullish for the DXY, and suggest any pullbacks will be fast, and potentially frightening, but will be over just as quickly as it arrives.

The scenario is exactly what happened on Black Thursday, which began the increasing divergence between the two assets. As the dollar continued to dive, Bitcoin climbed. But has led to some of the most overbought conditions in the cryptocurrency, and the most oversold conditions in the fiat currency – the perfect storm for a violent reversal.

dollar dxy bitcoin btc comparison

The comparison line chart shows how these two trade directly inverse to one another | Source: DXY on TradingView.com

As Bitcoiners have learned over the years, when crypto sentiment becomes incredibly bearish, reversals take place. At this point in 2020, few are bullish on the dollar, making a surprise move that much more effective and shocking.

The greatest investors and traders of our time, have advocated contrarian stances. The above chart shows how the dollar and Bitcoin trade almost perfectly in inverse. A shocking, surprise turnaround in the dollar due to extremely oversold conditions combined with the same type of surprise turnaround in Bitcoin due to similarly overbought conditions, and there is a recipe for disaster brewing.

RELATED READING | THE MOST PROFITABLE BUY SIGNAL IN BITCOIN IS ABOUT TO TRIGGER DESPITE DISTANCE FROM ATH

Bitcoin is at all-time highs, and the market is convinced a new bull run is here. And while they’re likely right, it has also set sentiment up perfectly for the coming correction. At this point in the year, everyone who put money into crypto and stocks, are now geniuses. Smart money and the institutions that recently entered the market, are far savvier and are about to show the crypto community what they are made of.

The dollar could be about to pull a violent throwback to retest lost support | Source: DXY on TradingView.com

But because Bitcoin’s bullishness is only just beginning, chances that even a major correction that causes jaws to drop once again arrives, the cryptocurrency will rebound and blast off to the projections most anticipate.

The idea also lines up well with the DXY yet again, which could be preparing a strong throwback to the decade-long trend line it lost recently. The trend line also appears to act as a neckline to a massive head and shoulders chart pattern, which if valid, increases the likelihood of a throwback scenario. According to the authority on chart patterns, Thomas Bulkowski, they have a 68% chance of a pullback before the final target is reached.

Targets of the structure suggest Bitcoin will be just fine, and the dollar is doomed for further weakness.

FEATURED IMAGE FROM DEPOSIT PHOTOS, CHARTS FROM TRADINGVIEW.COM



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Bitcoin

‘Bullish year ahead’ — Bitcoin primed for Q1 2021 gains, strength index suggests

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The monthly relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin (BTC) shows the dominant cryptocurrency is primed for another rally.

Is 2021 an ideal time for a Bitcoin rally?

The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold. When the RSI surpasses 75, it signals the asset is overbought, and when it drops below 30, it means the asset is oversold.

A pseudonymous trader known as “Crypto Capo” noted that the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is set to close above 80. Historically, when this has happened, BTC has saw a strong rally afterward.

Although the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is above 80, which is technically oversold, BTC’s RSI tends to become oversold for prolonged periods during a bull cycle.

The monthly RSI of Bitcoin. Source: Crypto Capo

Hence, traders often refer to an oversold RSI on a high time frame chart, like the monthly candle chart, to forecast an extended rally in the short term to medium term. The trader said:

“Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”

However, the trader emphasized that one indicator cannot accurately predict the price cycle of Bitcoin. Crypto Capo explained that the combination of a few indicators could serve as guidance for the future. He wrote:

“You cannot base a prediction on an indicator. What we do is combining several methods to have a guideline for the future, to see what is more likely. But in the end, we adapt to what the price does in the present.”

“Bullish year ahead”

Traders have differing perspectives on where Bitcoin is headed in 2021, but most traders remain overwhelmingly bullish.

Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michael van de Poppe said he anticipates Bitcoin to reach $65,000 to $85,000 by next year’s end. He stated:

“I’ve got to revise my view on the potential level of $BTC at the end of 2021. Through this recent surge, I’m expecting it to be between $65,000-85,000 at the end of 2021. Bullish year ahead.”

Meanwhile, the options market is pricing in a 22% chance of Bitcoin achieving $120,000 by next year, which could also serve as a potential guideline on where BTC is heading in 2021.

In the short-term, however, some traders are cautious in entering leveraged positions. A pseudonymous trader known as “TheBoot” said the ideal scenario is to wait for Bitcoin to consolidate at $25,000 or enter after the next price upsurge. The trader explained:

“No rush to enter leveraged trades on $btc right here imo. Best would be to wait and long low 25k or even mid 24k. Alternatively, wait for the next leg up and then a dip from there.”

Cointelegraph previously reported that whales have been buying Bitcoin more aggressively since Christmas, which could buoy the mid-term bull case for BTC entering into 2021.