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Bitcoin’s Short-Term Outlook is Dangerous for Bulls; Here’s Why

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  • Bitcoin has flashed some signs of tempered strength throughout the past few days, with bulls ardently defending against a sustained drop below $18,000
  • The buying pressure below this level was tempered and only sparked a slow climb higher
  • Until the crypto can reach a level that kicks off a massive buying spree that creates another “V-shaped recover,” there’s a possibility that it will see further weakness
  • One trader is now noting that a move lower could be imminent in the near-term, pointing to a few technical signs that seem to indicate downside could be imminent
  • He also notes that being long and expecting a move past $20,000 is a crowded trade, which may not come to fruition until it sees a “sizeable correction”

Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market have inched higher today, with the benchmark crypto’s climb back above $18,000 slightly boosting bulls.

Where it trends in the mid-term may depend largely, if not entirely, on BTC’s eventual reaction to $19,000. This has been a pivotal level in the past, with breaks above it leading to all-time high tests, and breaks below it sparking selloffs.

One trader expects a sizeable correction before BTC can smash above the heavy resistance it faces around $20,000.

Bitcoin Shows Signs of Strength as Bulls Reclaim $18,000

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading up just over 2% at its current price of $18,400. This is around the price at which it has been trading throughout the past few days.

The recent drop below this level was grim at the time, but bulls defended its support at $17,600 and have since helped it reclaim its foothold within the $18,000 region.

So long as bulls can continue defending against any intense downside, there’s a strong possibility that the cryptocurrency will continue pushing higher.

Top Trader Claims BTC Likely to See a Sizeable Correction Before Setting ATHs 

One trader recently offered a somewhat grave and pessimistic outlook on Bitcoin’s technical strength, explaining that a move lower is highly probable before it can garner enough buying pressure to set new highs.

“I don’t like the way BTC is looking in the short term if you have a bullish bias. Two rejections at resistance with a sizable bear div and declining momentum. Too many people still expect price to rip through 20K at any moment. Won’t happen before a sizable correction IMO.”

Image Courtesy of Instinct. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.

It remains unclear just how low it will have to go to shake out all the bulls who are crowding the upside trade, but there’s a strong possibility that a move like this will happen sooner rather than later.

Featured image from Unsplash.
Charts from TradingView.





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Bitcoin

‘Bullish year ahead’ — Bitcoin primed for Q1 2021 gains, strength index suggests

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The monthly relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin (BTC) shows the dominant cryptocurrency is primed for another rally.

Is 2021 an ideal time for a Bitcoin rally?

The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold. When the RSI surpasses 75, it signals the asset is overbought, and when it drops below 30, it means the asset is oversold.

A pseudonymous trader known as “Crypto Capo” noted that the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is set to close above 80. Historically, when this has happened, BTC has saw a strong rally afterward.

Although the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is above 80, which is technically oversold, BTC’s RSI tends to become oversold for prolonged periods during a bull cycle.

The monthly RSI of Bitcoin. Source: Crypto Capo

Hence, traders often refer to an oversold RSI on a high time frame chart, like the monthly candle chart, to forecast an extended rally in the short term to medium term. The trader said:

“Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”

However, the trader emphasized that one indicator cannot accurately predict the price cycle of Bitcoin. Crypto Capo explained that the combination of a few indicators could serve as guidance for the future. He wrote:

“You cannot base a prediction on an indicator. What we do is combining several methods to have a guideline for the future, to see what is more likely. But in the end, we adapt to what the price does in the present.”

“Bullish year ahead”

Traders have differing perspectives on where Bitcoin is headed in 2021, but most traders remain overwhelmingly bullish.

Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michael van de Poppe said he anticipates Bitcoin to reach $65,000 to $85,000 by next year’s end. He stated:

“I’ve got to revise my view on the potential level of $BTC at the end of 2021. Through this recent surge, I’m expecting it to be between $65,000-85,000 at the end of 2021. Bullish year ahead.”

Meanwhile, the options market is pricing in a 22% chance of Bitcoin achieving $120,000 by next year, which could also serve as a potential guideline on where BTC is heading in 2021.

In the short-term, however, some traders are cautious in entering leveraged positions. A pseudonymous trader known as “TheBoot” said the ideal scenario is to wait for Bitcoin to consolidate at $25,000 or enter after the next price upsurge. The trader explained:

“No rush to enter leveraged trades on $btc right here imo. Best would be to wait and long low 25k or even mid 24k. Alternatively, wait for the next leg up and then a dip from there.”

Cointelegraph previously reported that whales have been buying Bitcoin more aggressively since Christmas, which could buoy the mid-term bull case for BTC entering into 2021.