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Bitcoin Bull Run Is Official According To Monthly RSI, More Bullish Than 2017

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Bitcoin is now trading well above $20,000, and at this point will never again see under five-digits. And although the clean break of $20,000 was proof enough that a massive bull run was here, the Relative Strength Index has also breached into bull territory for the first time since 2018.

Comparing past crypto market cycles, Bitcoin is already far more bullish this time around than it was back in 2017. That rally took the crypto asset from $1,000 to $20,000. And if things are more bullish already, could this peak be even higher than what the past cycle’s trajectory would suggest?

Beast Mode: Relative Strength Index Reading Reaches Bull Market Level

Today is December 17, 2020, three full years after Bitcoin topped out in 2017 after becoming a household name. That year alone, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap spiked from $1,000 to over $20,000.

It is only fitting that on the anniversary of the previous peak, Bitcoin price has breached above $20,000 to set a new record. And if that signal wasn’t enough to let the world know another bull run has begun, the asset’s Relative Strength Index is yet another important indicator that magic is about to happen.

RELATED READING | BITCOIN ANALYST: “DEEP CORRECTION” COMING WITH DECEMBER 17 PIVOT POINT REACHED

For the first time since the bear market began, the monthly RSI is well into bull territory. Looking back at past cycles in the chart below, each checkmark highlights where this milestone condition was met.

The cryptocurrency is nearly at a point relative to the last cycle that led to one of the first and only red monthly candle closes. That took place in December 2016.

December is an important month for the cryptocurrency cyclically, acting as an important pivot point for price action.

The leading cryptocurrency by market cap broke into the RSI bull zone but is slightly ahead compared to the last cycle | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Bitcoin Bubbles: Current Cycle More Bullish Than The Last, Ahead By 6 Months

Bitcoin’s “bubble” cycles are explained to be due to the asset’s unique block reward mechanism and scarce supply. The idea is that unlike gold and other commodities that, rather than increasing production and therefore supply when demand grows, Bitcoin actually slashes supply further.

The gold industry scrambling to meet this year’s demand by increasing the available supply caused precious metal momentum to taper. Because there can only ever be 21 million BTC, and its release into the market is controlled by unmodifiable computer code, this process can’t impact prices.

Instead, Bitcoin price rises exponentially and the asset enters price discovery until speculation exceeds utility, and the bubble pops and the cycle begins again.

Paying close attention to these market cycles in the cryptocurrency has been the key to predicting what might to expect in the future of Bitcoin cycles.

RELATED READING | NY TIMES BESTSELLING AUTHOR: BITCOIN S2F IS FLAWED, NOT MATHEMATICALLY SOUND

The four-year intervals make these cycles somewhat predictable, and nearly right on target, the bull market is back again. If the cycle continues to follow the same path as the last time around, the parabolic phase and unimaginable prices are next.

However, there is one thing to worry about for bulls, and that’s the fact that this cycle is actually more bullish than the last. Being substantially more bullish and ahead in terms of market cycle can’t be a bad thing for the cryptocurrency that just caught the attention of billionaires around the world.

But it does also point out the fact that things could be slightly overextended currently compared to what little data is available to go by. The above chart also demonstrates that Bitcoin could be as far as six months ahead of where it was during the last cycle.

With so few cycles to compare, there’s no telling what might happen, especially with unique factors this time around such as unprecedented money printing, and FOMO from billionaires with more than enough capital to throw around.

Featured Image From Deposit Photos, Chart From TradingView.com



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‘Bullish year ahead’ — Bitcoin primed for Q1 2021 gains, strength index suggests

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The monthly relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin (BTC) shows the dominant cryptocurrency is primed for another rally.

Is 2021 an ideal time for a Bitcoin rally?

The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold. When the RSI surpasses 75, it signals the asset is overbought, and when it drops below 30, it means the asset is oversold.

A pseudonymous trader known as “Crypto Capo” noted that the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is set to close above 80. Historically, when this has happened, BTC has saw a strong rally afterward.

Although the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is above 80, which is technically oversold, BTC’s RSI tends to become oversold for prolonged periods during a bull cycle.

The monthly RSI of Bitcoin. Source: Crypto Capo

Hence, traders often refer to an oversold RSI on a high time frame chart, like the monthly candle chart, to forecast an extended rally in the short term to medium term. The trader said:

“Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”

However, the trader emphasized that one indicator cannot accurately predict the price cycle of Bitcoin. Crypto Capo explained that the combination of a few indicators could serve as guidance for the future. He wrote:

“You cannot base a prediction on an indicator. What we do is combining several methods to have a guideline for the future, to see what is more likely. But in the end, we adapt to what the price does in the present.”

“Bullish year ahead”

Traders have differing perspectives on where Bitcoin is headed in 2021, but most traders remain overwhelmingly bullish.

Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michael van de Poppe said he anticipates Bitcoin to reach $65,000 to $85,000 by next year’s end. He stated:

“I’ve got to revise my view on the potential level of $BTC at the end of 2021. Through this recent surge, I’m expecting it to be between $65,000-85,000 at the end of 2021. Bullish year ahead.”

Meanwhile, the options market is pricing in a 22% chance of Bitcoin achieving $120,000 by next year, which could also serve as a potential guideline on where BTC is heading in 2021.

In the short-term, however, some traders are cautious in entering leveraged positions. A pseudonymous trader known as “TheBoot” said the ideal scenario is to wait for Bitcoin to consolidate at $25,000 or enter after the next price upsurge. The trader explained:

“No rush to enter leveraged trades on $btc right here imo. Best would be to wait and long low 25k or even mid 24k. Alternatively, wait for the next leg up and then a dip from there.”

Cointelegraph previously reported that whales have been buying Bitcoin more aggressively since Christmas, which could buoy the mid-term bull case for BTC entering into 2021.