As Bitcoin (BTC) keeps hitting new all-time highs past $20,000, its network fundamentals paint a different picture compared to the previous 2017 bull run.
Three years ago, on this very day, Bitcoin reached its first major all-time high of $20,000, recording up to 2,000% gains for that year. Over the course of 2020, Bitcoin enjoyed another price rally pushing its price to new historic highs and crossing $23,500 on Dec. 17 for the first time ever.
Comparing the bull runs of 2017 and 2020, one may think that December has a special significance for Bitcoin. But other than this coincidence, the rallies are very much different in terms of institutional demand and adoption levels. From a fundamental perspective, this year’s Bitcoin bull run is nothing like 2017 — especially in terms of transaction fees.
Transaction fees down more than 90% in 2020 bull run
Bitcoin’s 2020 bull run is significantly healthier in terms of costs per transaction. The miners’ revenue per transaction — a metric that also includes block rewards — amounted to $130 in December 2017 and about $60 on Dec. 14, 2020, according to data from Blockchain.com.
Raw transaction fees are significantly cheaper. According to monitoring resources like BitInfoCharts, the average BTC transaction fee is down to $5 in December 2020 from $50 in 2017.
The contrast is even more evident when looking at total BTC transaction fees, which are down from around 1,500 BTC on Dec. 21, 2017 to just 70 BTC on Dec. 14, 2020, according to Blockchain.com.
Total BTC transaction fees historical chart. Source: Blockchain.com
Some mainstream media outlets highlighted the surprisingly low BTC transaction fees recently. On Dec. 13, an unknown user paid just about $12 for a 32,253 BTC ($628 million) transaction, Finance Magnates reported. BTC transaction fees still saw major spikes over the course of 2020. In October 2020, BTC transaction costs surged about 200%.
Bitcoin hash rate increased almost tenfold
Bitcoin’s 2020 rally is also different in terms of hash rate — one of Bitcoin’s key metrics indicating the computing power and overall network security as well as resistance to attack.
According to data from Blockchain.com, the BTC hash rate has been steadily growing over time, with total hash rate surging from about 14 million terahashes (TH) per second in December 2017 to over 130 million TH/s in December 2020.
As previously reported by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin hash rate has recorded some significant movement in 2020. In early November 2020, BTC hash power jumped over 40% in two days after seeing a sharp drop in October.
It is worth noting that the increase in hash rate can also be attributed to more efficient mining devices that appeared in the past three years. Compared to 2017 miners, they produce approximately three times more hashes per watt of energy. Still, the network is unquestionably more secure than at the same point in the 2017 bull run.
Number of confirmed BTC transactions rises
As cryptocurrency adoption continues to grow each day, the number of daily confirmed transactions has been steadily increasing each year. Despite BTC transaction fees staying much lower than in 2017, the Bitcoin network is processing significantly more transactions than three years ago.
Bitcoin processed around 320,000 transactions on Dec. 14, 2020, compared to around 280,000 transactions in mid-December 2017, according to data from Blockchain.com. The all-time high in the number of confirmed transactions was recorded in May 2019, when BTC price started to recover from its drop to the low of about $3,000.
The number of unconfirmed transactions in the Bitcoin network is another sign that Bitcoin’s 2020 bull run is much healthier in terms of network fundamentals.
Amid the BTC rally of 2017, about 120,000 transactions were stuck in the BTC network in mid-December. According to the latest recorded data on Blockchain.com, the number of unconfirmed BTC transactions was just 68 on Dec. 16.
As Bitcoin’s rally keeps gaining momentum, it remains to be seen whether the ongoing bull run keeps its positive trend in terms of network fundamentals.
Dormant Bitcoin on the move as price volatility rises
Published
52 Minuten ago
on
Dezember 29, 2020
By
In a period filled with holidays, the cryptocurrency industry refused to take a day off. Strong market performances from Bitcoin (BTC) and some other high profile alt-coins like Ether (ETH,) was offset by the legal action against Ripple by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. In response, a number of prominent trading platforms, including Coinbase, Crypto.com, and FalconX responded by halting trading or deposits of the XRP token.
The latest findings by Santiment, published in Cointelegraph Consulting’s biweekly newsletter, indicate that the balance of wallets holding dormant BTC over a 365-day period has become more active. Between December 13 and 20, more than 146,620 BTC (~$3.9 billion at the time of writing) that fit this description moved on the blockchain, marking its highest weekly volume since July 2019.
These long-term investors tend to trade based on extensive analysis or intimate market knowledge, which is why intense spikes in dormant Bitcoin tend to be more indicative of larger shifts in market conditions and interim price volatility.
Still, with Coinbase’s high-profile IPO right around the corner, and institutional buying is high, so it’s not unreasonable to expect conditions to remain positive going into 2021. Many investors were considering the possibility of a “Christmas Dump” as $2.3 billion in Bitcoin options contracts were set to expire, the largest ever in a single day. With that event in the rear-view mirror, many investors are now optimistic that the momentum of 2020 will continue into the new year.
Read the full newsletter edition here for more news and signals, complete with detailed charts and images.
Cointelegraph’s Market Insights Newsletter shares our knowledge on the fundamentals that move the digital asset market. With market intelligence from one of the industry’s leading analytics providers,Santiment, the newsletter dives into the latest data on social media sentiment, on-chain metrics, and derivatives.
We also review the industry’s most important news, including mergers and acquisitions, changes in the regulatory landscape, and enterprise blockchain integrations. Sign up now to be the first to receive these insights. All past editions of Market Insights are also available on Cointelegraph.com.
If History Rhymes, This Indicator Suggests Bitcoin May See a Parabolic Explosion
Published
1 Stunde ago
on
Dezember 29, 2020
By
Bitcoin has seen some mixed price action as of late, with bulls being unable to take control of its trend in the time following its rally up to $28,500
The rejection here was quite intense, and it has yet to show any signs of strength in the time following this occurrence
The fact that bulls have guarded against any deeper drawback is positive because it invalidates the possibility that this recent high is a blow-off top
One trader is now noting that there is an incredibly bullish indicator that is flashing for Bitcoin
He points to the cryptocurrency’s monthly RSI, noting that a monthly close above a specific level that it is nearing is historically followed by parabolic moves higher
In the past, these movements have had an average return of 1,010%, but their size and length seem to diminish with time
Bitcoin and the entire crypto market have declined over the past 12 hours, which appears to be the direct result of the pressure that XRP is placing on the market due to its latest selloff.
Where the market trends in the mid-term likely won’t depend on XRP, which means that this latest round of selling pressure may mark a knee-jerk reaction from investors.
One analyst is noting that Bitcoin’s monthly RSI is flashing an incredibly bullish sign for where BTC trends next.
Bitcoin Struggles to Gain Momentum Following $28,500 Rejection
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading down just over 1% at its current price of $26,700.
The crypto has been trading between the upper-$26,000 region and the lower-$27,000 region throughout the past few days.
It has yet to garner enough buy-side support to break above the heavy resistance laced throughout the lower-$28,000 region. For now, this peak could mark a blow-off top.
Indicator Suggests BTC is About to Go Parabolic
One trader explained in a recent tweet that Bitcoin could be on the cusp of seeing a parabolic move higher in the days and weeks ahead.
He points to the cryptocurrency’s monthly RSI as an indicator for this possibility.
“BTC – Monthly RSI. Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”
Image Courtesy of il Capo of Crypto. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.
The coming few days should shed light on Bitcoin’s trend, as continued weakness could confirm $28,500 as a local high and lead to a deeper retrace.
Featured image from Unsplash.
Charts from TradingView.
‘Bullish year ahead’ — Bitcoin primed for Q1 2021 gains, strength index suggests
Published
2 Stunden ago
on
Dezember 29, 2020
By
The monthly relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin (BTC) shows the dominant cryptocurrency is primed for another rally.
Is 2021 an ideal time for a Bitcoin rally?
The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold. When the RSI surpasses 75, it signals the asset is overbought, and when it drops below 30, it means the asset is oversold.
A pseudonymous trader known as “Crypto Capo” noted that the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is set to close above 80. Historically, when this has happened, BTC has saw a strong rally afterward.
Although the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is above 80, which is technically oversold, BTC’s RSI tends to become oversold for prolonged periods during a bull cycle.
The monthly RSI of Bitcoin. Source: Crypto Capo
Hence, traders often refer to an oversold RSI on a high time frame chart, like the monthly candle chart, to forecast an extended rally in the short term to medium term. The trader said:
“Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”
However, the trader emphasized that one indicator cannot accurately predict the price cycle of Bitcoin. Crypto Capo explained that the combination of a few indicators could serve as guidance for the future. He wrote:
“You cannot base a prediction on an indicator. What we do is combining several methods to have a guideline for the future, to see what is more likely. But in the end, we adapt to what the price does in the present.”
“Bullish year ahead”
Traders have differing perspectives on where Bitcoin is headed in 2021, but most traders remain overwhelmingly bullish.
Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michael van de Poppe said he anticipates Bitcoin to reach $65,000 to $85,000 by next year’s end. He stated:
“I’ve got to revise my view on the potential level of $BTC at the end of 2021. Through this recent surge, I’m expecting it to be between $65,000-85,000 at the end of 2021. Bullish year ahead.”
Meanwhile, the options market is pricing in a 22% chance of Bitcoin achieving $120,000 by next year, which could also serve as a potential guideline on where BTC is heading in 2021.
In the short-term, however, some traders are cautious in entering leveraged positions. A pseudonymous trader known as “TheBoot” said the ideal scenario is to wait for Bitcoin to consolidate at $25,000 or enter after the next price upsurge. The trader explained:
“No rush to enter leveraged trades on $btc right here imo. Best would be to wait and long low 25k or even mid 24k. Alternatively, wait for the next leg up and then a dip from there.”
Cointelegraph previously reported that whales have been buying Bitcoin more aggressively since Christmas, which could buoy the mid-term bull case for BTC entering into 2021.