Finance Redefined is Cointelegraph’s DeFi-centric newsletter, delivered to subscribers every Wednesday.
Today the crypto world is celebrating Bitcoin’s new all-time high. We did it guys! We’re back to $20,000 after three grueling years.
So for this reason, this will be a bit of a Bitcoin-themed newsletter. How is Bitcoin related to DeFi, you ask? Well, for one thing, DeFi’s total value locked has a delta of about 0.2 to Bitcoin’s price. This means that for each 1% that BTC price goes higher or lower, DeFi TVL changes by 0.2%.
BTC and Wrapped BTC locked in DeFi, according to Defipulse.
Most of that relationship is due to the peculiar accounting choice of considering BitGo’s Wrapped BTC as its own asset in DeFi, while also counting all instances where WBTC is used in DeFi protocols. From a “natural” worth of $535 million, Bitcoin’s contribution to total value locked jumps to $2.9 billion — a pretty major discrepancy, right?
But beyond Bitcoin’s use on Ethereum, there is also the phenomenon of Bitcoin DeFi. Now, the thing is that none of these are really “Bitcoin” DeFi, because Bitcoin just does not let you create the complex smart contracts needed to implement true DeFi. The only project I know of that sort of does that is Atomic Loans. You pledge Bitcoin natively, but all smart contracts are on Ethereum and your loan is disbursed there.
Bitcoin DeFi does exist on RSK and Liquid, two Bitcoin “sidechains” — separate blockchains that use Bitcoin as their native currency. RSK also uses merge mining to validate its own chain, resulting in a much tighter bond with the main chain.
The problem is of course that since Bitcoin doesn’t have smart contracts, the path for BTC to reach those “DeFi” sidechains is usually custodial and centralized. But we recently saw RSK push a solution that makes the bridge effectively trustless, so I’m starting to warm up to seeing it as two sides of the same Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin DeFi roundup
RSK has definitely been active on the DeFi front. This week, Sovryn launched its DeFi suite on RSK. It’s a mix of several building blocks, including a lending protocol and an automated market maker exchange, or AMM. Similar to bZX’s Fulcrum, the combined suite makes it easier to enter leveraged positions on Bitcoin without taking the manual steps you’d have to take on, say, Compound.
Among the more interesting protocols on RSK we have TEX, a sort of mix between an AMM and an order book exchange. The mechanism is complex, but essentially it settles orders every few minutes based on an average of all limit orders submitted. The exchange was launched by Dollar on Chain, RSK’s Maker analog with a few additional features.
On the Liquid side — the sidechain developed by Blockstream — there is less variety, although there is another interesting twist on decentralized exchanges called TDEX. It uses atomic swaps to perform trades and allows complete control over settlement price, unlike AMMs, where you don’t really know your trade’s price until the order is executed.
Tokenized Bitcoin on Ethereum
The most popular type of Bitcoin on Ethereum is Wrapped Bitcoin, as I’ve mentioned. Quite simply, BitGo (and supposedly other partners) takes custody of Bitcoin that’s bridged to Ethereum, and then they mint the corresponding WBTC tokens. Very similar to Tether or other centralized stablecoins, it feels like a cop out.
For tokenized Bitcoin to be relevant, we need to solve this pesky issue of relying on custodians to bridge it to new chains.
The tBTC project is one such trustless Bitcoin bridging mechanism. The project really embodies the “make lemonade” principle to its fullest. To avoid Bitcoin’s smart contract limitations, it allows anyone to become a “bonding agent” tasked with performing the conversions between Bitcoin and Ethereum. In case of any wrongdoing, users have a claim to the agent’s bond on Ethereum, which is overcollateralized when compared to the bridged amount.
As you may expect, tBTC’s mechanism of bonds and slashing is quite complex and is probably stifling adoption, so this week tBTC partnered with the CoinList exchange to provide an easier method for minting the token. That may also be interpreted as a cop out, but the fundamental feature is that the system is still open to anyone, instead of being operated by an exclusive and well-defined set of validators.
Lastly, there is RenBTC. While the team uses fancy words like “Shamir’s Secret Sharing” and “Multi Party Computation” to justify itself as a trustless and permissionless bridging protocol, research by Wanchain seems to show that all BTC in their bridge is held by a single wallet, presumably controlled by the team. Wanchain is a competitor, so make of this what you will — I don’t really have the expertise to corroborate this quickly.
In practice, Ren is definitely simple and permissionless enough. So much so that DeFi hackers have now turned to it to launder their proceeds. The most likely explanation I see is that the Bitcoin blockchain is just much harder to track, and mixing solutions are much more liquid on it than Ethereum’s Tornado Cash.
If Ren is really as centralized as it seems, I could foresee major problems if the team continues letting hackers use it. The general rule of financial regulation is that if you can stop money laundering, you must — in a very vigorous and proactive way. Still, individual instances of money laundering are not a big deal, provided there is an acceptable anti-money laundering program.
Overall, Bitcoin may become the most promising expansion avenue for DeFi. You just can’t argue with its $383 billion market capitalization. Whether it’s on Ethereum, on Bitcoin sidechains or anywhere else, DeFi would be a natural extension for Bitcoin as an asset.
Dormant Bitcoin on the move as price volatility rises
Published
38 Minuten ago
on
Dezember 29, 2020
By
In a period filled with holidays, the cryptocurrency industry refused to take a day off. Strong market performances from Bitcoin (BTC) and some other high profile alt-coins like Ether (ETH,) was offset by the legal action against Ripple by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. In response, a number of prominent trading platforms, including Coinbase, Crypto.com, and FalconX responded by halting trading or deposits of the XRP token.
The latest findings by Santiment, published in Cointelegraph Consulting’s biweekly newsletter, indicate that the balance of wallets holding dormant BTC over a 365-day period has become more active. Between December 13 and 20, more than 146,620 BTC (~$3.9 billion at the time of writing) that fit this description moved on the blockchain, marking its highest weekly volume since July 2019.
These long-term investors tend to trade based on extensive analysis or intimate market knowledge, which is why intense spikes in dormant Bitcoin tend to be more indicative of larger shifts in market conditions and interim price volatility.
Still, with Coinbase’s high-profile IPO right around the corner, and institutional buying is high, so it’s not unreasonable to expect conditions to remain positive going into 2021. Many investors were considering the possibility of a “Christmas Dump” as $2.3 billion in Bitcoin options contracts were set to expire, the largest ever in a single day. With that event in the rear-view mirror, many investors are now optimistic that the momentum of 2020 will continue into the new year.
Read the full newsletter edition here for more news and signals, complete with detailed charts and images.
Cointelegraph’s Market Insights Newsletter shares our knowledge on the fundamentals that move the digital asset market. With market intelligence from one of the industry’s leading analytics providers,Santiment, the newsletter dives into the latest data on social media sentiment, on-chain metrics, and derivatives.
We also review the industry’s most important news, including mergers and acquisitions, changes in the regulatory landscape, and enterprise blockchain integrations. Sign up now to be the first to receive these insights. All past editions of Market Insights are also available on Cointelegraph.com.
If History Rhymes, This Indicator Suggests Bitcoin May See a Parabolic Explosion
Published
59 Minuten ago
on
Dezember 29, 2020
By
Bitcoin has seen some mixed price action as of late, with bulls being unable to take control of its trend in the time following its rally up to $28,500
The rejection here was quite intense, and it has yet to show any signs of strength in the time following this occurrence
The fact that bulls have guarded against any deeper drawback is positive because it invalidates the possibility that this recent high is a blow-off top
One trader is now noting that there is an incredibly bullish indicator that is flashing for Bitcoin
He points to the cryptocurrency’s monthly RSI, noting that a monthly close above a specific level that it is nearing is historically followed by parabolic moves higher
In the past, these movements have had an average return of 1,010%, but their size and length seem to diminish with time
Bitcoin and the entire crypto market have declined over the past 12 hours, which appears to be the direct result of the pressure that XRP is placing on the market due to its latest selloff.
Where the market trends in the mid-term likely won’t depend on XRP, which means that this latest round of selling pressure may mark a knee-jerk reaction from investors.
One analyst is noting that Bitcoin’s monthly RSI is flashing an incredibly bullish sign for where BTC trends next.
Bitcoin Struggles to Gain Momentum Following $28,500 Rejection
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading down just over 1% at its current price of $26,700.
The crypto has been trading between the upper-$26,000 region and the lower-$27,000 region throughout the past few days.
It has yet to garner enough buy-side support to break above the heavy resistance laced throughout the lower-$28,000 region. For now, this peak could mark a blow-off top.
Indicator Suggests BTC is About to Go Parabolic
One trader explained in a recent tweet that Bitcoin could be on the cusp of seeing a parabolic move higher in the days and weeks ahead.
He points to the cryptocurrency’s monthly RSI as an indicator for this possibility.
“BTC – Monthly RSI. Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”
Image Courtesy of il Capo of Crypto. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.
The coming few days should shed light on Bitcoin’s trend, as continued weakness could confirm $28,500 as a local high and lead to a deeper retrace.
Featured image from Unsplash.
Charts from TradingView.
‘Bullish year ahead’ — Bitcoin primed for Q1 2021 gains, strength index suggests
Published
1 Stunde ago
on
Dezember 29, 2020
By
The monthly relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin (BTC) shows the dominant cryptocurrency is primed for another rally.
Is 2021 an ideal time for a Bitcoin rally?
The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold. When the RSI surpasses 75, it signals the asset is overbought, and when it drops below 30, it means the asset is oversold.
A pseudonymous trader known as “Crypto Capo” noted that the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is set to close above 80. Historically, when this has happened, BTC has saw a strong rally afterward.
Although the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is above 80, which is technically oversold, BTC’s RSI tends to become oversold for prolonged periods during a bull cycle.
The monthly RSI of Bitcoin. Source: Crypto Capo
Hence, traders often refer to an oversold RSI on a high time frame chart, like the monthly candle chart, to forecast an extended rally in the short term to medium term. The trader said:
“Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”
However, the trader emphasized that one indicator cannot accurately predict the price cycle of Bitcoin. Crypto Capo explained that the combination of a few indicators could serve as guidance for the future. He wrote:
“You cannot base a prediction on an indicator. What we do is combining several methods to have a guideline for the future, to see what is more likely. But in the end, we adapt to what the price does in the present.”
“Bullish year ahead”
Traders have differing perspectives on where Bitcoin is headed in 2021, but most traders remain overwhelmingly bullish.
Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michael van de Poppe said he anticipates Bitcoin to reach $65,000 to $85,000 by next year’s end. He stated:
“I’ve got to revise my view on the potential level of $BTC at the end of 2021. Through this recent surge, I’m expecting it to be between $65,000-85,000 at the end of 2021. Bullish year ahead.”
Meanwhile, the options market is pricing in a 22% chance of Bitcoin achieving $120,000 by next year, which could also serve as a potential guideline on where BTC is heading in 2021.
In the short-term, however, some traders are cautious in entering leveraged positions. A pseudonymous trader known as “TheBoot” said the ideal scenario is to wait for Bitcoin to consolidate at $25,000 or enter after the next price upsurge. The trader explained:
“No rush to enter leveraged trades on $btc right here imo. Best would be to wait and long low 25k or even mid 24k. Alternatively, wait for the next leg up and then a dip from there.”
Cointelegraph previously reported that whales have been buying Bitcoin more aggressively since Christmas, which could buoy the mid-term bull case for BTC entering into 2021.