What Bitcoin all-time high? These 3 charts prove new retail buyers aren’t here yet
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2 Wochen ago
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Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 30% in a week and topped out at $23,777 on Dec. 16 — but hardly anyone in the world knows yet, data suggests.
According to charts tracking public awareness of what Bitcoin has done recently, interest is still a fraction of what it was during its run to previous all-time highs exactly three years ago in 2017.
Twitter sleeping on BTC Outside “CT”
Anyone who regularly reads crypto Twitter, also known informally as “CT,” may have the impression that the entire social network revolves around Bitcoin price action in 2020.
This is not the case, however, as statistics show that beyond CT, Bitcoin’s highs and lows this year are hardly a trend.
The status quo is only now beginning to change, but according to analytics resource TheTIE, tweet levels are only roughly where they were in January 2018, already after Bitcoin hit just under $20,000.
Twitter volume for BTC 3-year chart. Source: TheTIE
While roughly moving in step with price action, Twitter activity is indicative of a curious reversal in sentiment when it comes to Bitcoin and the mainstream. Consumers seeing headlines about price bubbles and criminal machinations genuinely appear to have dismissed crypto altogether — with the exception of the odd surprise publicity campaign.
Wikipedia shows no desire to learn about Bitcoin
The theory holds true when looking at the popularity of Bitcoin on Wikipedia. Pageviews in December 2020 are but a small uptick on an otherwise flat landscape.
Compared to January 2018, there is no contest — appetite for learning what Bitcoin is was an order of magnitude higher than today.
Wikipedia page views for Bitcoin 3-year chart. Source: CoinMarketCap
Interestingly, even the crisis surrounding Covid-19 and its impact on markets in March, combined with Bitcoin’s record recovery to all-time highs, failed to catch the attention of the majority.
Few are googling Bitcoin
Lastly, a global measure of what internet users are searching for underscores how little exposure Bitcoin has right now — and the potential for it to transform.
In what is perhaps the most surprising chart of all, according to Google Trends data, the term “Bitcoin” is less popular this week than in earlier in December or even November.
Even May’s block subsidy halving event proved more popular than this week’s all-time price highs, suggesting once again that people inclined to Google about Bitcoin at all already have some specific interest in cryptocurrency more generally. Mainstream consumers have no incentive to become involved — or so they think.
Google search interest for “Bitcoin” 12-month chart. Source: Google Trends
The evidence all points to the fact that Bitcoin, despite being a different asset to what it was three years ago, has not even touched mainstream consciousness. Institutions, however, are already ahead of the game.
Commenting on the phenomenon, popular Twitter account Polkadot Brown said that his personal contacts are only prepared to buy — paradoxically — once BTC/USD hits new all-time highs.
“This is the mentality of most retail investors,” he wrote.
“Right now institutions are getting in on dips so they can dump on X2 from here. The next bear market won’t happen until we hit a $50k #BTC.”
Dormant Bitcoin on the move as price volatility rises
Published
56 Minuten ago
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Dezember 29, 2020
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In a period filled with holidays, the cryptocurrency industry refused to take a day off. Strong market performances from Bitcoin (BTC) and some other high profile alt-coins like Ether (ETH,) was offset by the legal action against Ripple by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. In response, a number of prominent trading platforms, including Coinbase, Crypto.com, and FalconX responded by halting trading or deposits of the XRP token.
The latest findings by Santiment, published in Cointelegraph Consulting’s biweekly newsletter, indicate that the balance of wallets holding dormant BTC over a 365-day period has become more active. Between December 13 and 20, more than 146,620 BTC (~$3.9 billion at the time of writing) that fit this description moved on the blockchain, marking its highest weekly volume since July 2019.
These long-term investors tend to trade based on extensive analysis or intimate market knowledge, which is why intense spikes in dormant Bitcoin tend to be more indicative of larger shifts in market conditions and interim price volatility.
Still, with Coinbase’s high-profile IPO right around the corner, and institutional buying is high, so it’s not unreasonable to expect conditions to remain positive going into 2021. Many investors were considering the possibility of a “Christmas Dump” as $2.3 billion in Bitcoin options contracts were set to expire, the largest ever in a single day. With that event in the rear-view mirror, many investors are now optimistic that the momentum of 2020 will continue into the new year.
Read the full newsletter edition here for more news and signals, complete with detailed charts and images.
Cointelegraph’s Market Insights Newsletter shares our knowledge on the fundamentals that move the digital asset market. With market intelligence from one of the industry’s leading analytics providers,Santiment, the newsletter dives into the latest data on social media sentiment, on-chain metrics, and derivatives.
We also review the industry’s most important news, including mergers and acquisitions, changes in the regulatory landscape, and enterprise blockchain integrations. Sign up now to be the first to receive these insights. All past editions of Market Insights are also available on Cointelegraph.com.
If History Rhymes, This Indicator Suggests Bitcoin May See a Parabolic Explosion
Published
1 Stunde ago
on
Dezember 29, 2020
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Bitcoin has seen some mixed price action as of late, with bulls being unable to take control of its trend in the time following its rally up to $28,500
The rejection here was quite intense, and it has yet to show any signs of strength in the time following this occurrence
The fact that bulls have guarded against any deeper drawback is positive because it invalidates the possibility that this recent high is a blow-off top
One trader is now noting that there is an incredibly bullish indicator that is flashing for Bitcoin
He points to the cryptocurrency’s monthly RSI, noting that a monthly close above a specific level that it is nearing is historically followed by parabolic moves higher
In the past, these movements have had an average return of 1,010%, but their size and length seem to diminish with time
Bitcoin and the entire crypto market have declined over the past 12 hours, which appears to be the direct result of the pressure that XRP is placing on the market due to its latest selloff.
Where the market trends in the mid-term likely won’t depend on XRP, which means that this latest round of selling pressure may mark a knee-jerk reaction from investors.
One analyst is noting that Bitcoin’s monthly RSI is flashing an incredibly bullish sign for where BTC trends next.
Bitcoin Struggles to Gain Momentum Following $28,500 Rejection
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading down just over 1% at its current price of $26,700.
The crypto has been trading between the upper-$26,000 region and the lower-$27,000 region throughout the past few days.
It has yet to garner enough buy-side support to break above the heavy resistance laced throughout the lower-$28,000 region. For now, this peak could mark a blow-off top.
Indicator Suggests BTC is About to Go Parabolic
One trader explained in a recent tweet that Bitcoin could be on the cusp of seeing a parabolic move higher in the days and weeks ahead.
He points to the cryptocurrency’s monthly RSI as an indicator for this possibility.
“BTC – Monthly RSI. Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”
Image Courtesy of il Capo of Crypto. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.
The coming few days should shed light on Bitcoin’s trend, as continued weakness could confirm $28,500 as a local high and lead to a deeper retrace.
Featured image from Unsplash.
Charts from TradingView.
‘Bullish year ahead’ — Bitcoin primed for Q1 2021 gains, strength index suggests
Published
2 Stunden ago
on
Dezember 29, 2020
By
The monthly relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin (BTC) shows the dominant cryptocurrency is primed for another rally.
Is 2021 an ideal time for a Bitcoin rally?
The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold. When the RSI surpasses 75, it signals the asset is overbought, and when it drops below 30, it means the asset is oversold.
A pseudonymous trader known as “Crypto Capo” noted that the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is set to close above 80. Historically, when this has happened, BTC has saw a strong rally afterward.
Although the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is above 80, which is technically oversold, BTC’s RSI tends to become oversold for prolonged periods during a bull cycle.
The monthly RSI of Bitcoin. Source: Crypto Capo
Hence, traders often refer to an oversold RSI on a high time frame chart, like the monthly candle chart, to forecast an extended rally in the short term to medium term. The trader said:
“Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”
However, the trader emphasized that one indicator cannot accurately predict the price cycle of Bitcoin. Crypto Capo explained that the combination of a few indicators could serve as guidance for the future. He wrote:
“You cannot base a prediction on an indicator. What we do is combining several methods to have a guideline for the future, to see what is more likely. But in the end, we adapt to what the price does in the present.”
“Bullish year ahead”
Traders have differing perspectives on where Bitcoin is headed in 2021, but most traders remain overwhelmingly bullish.
Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michael van de Poppe said he anticipates Bitcoin to reach $65,000 to $85,000 by next year’s end. He stated:
“I’ve got to revise my view on the potential level of $BTC at the end of 2021. Through this recent surge, I’m expecting it to be between $65,000-85,000 at the end of 2021. Bullish year ahead.”
Meanwhile, the options market is pricing in a 22% chance of Bitcoin achieving $120,000 by next year, which could also serve as a potential guideline on where BTC is heading in 2021.
In the short-term, however, some traders are cautious in entering leveraged positions. A pseudonymous trader known as “TheBoot” said the ideal scenario is to wait for Bitcoin to consolidate at $25,000 or enter after the next price upsurge. The trader explained:
“No rush to enter leveraged trades on $btc right here imo. Best would be to wait and long low 25k or even mid 24k. Alternatively, wait for the next leg up and then a dip from there.”
Cointelegraph previously reported that whales have been buying Bitcoin more aggressively since Christmas, which could buoy the mid-term bull case for BTC entering into 2021.