As Bitcoin (BTC) price tested the $17,580 low on Dec. 11, investors remained relatively calm despite some analysts issuing bearish estimates. Last week’s trading may have finished at the same level where it started, but the fundamentals for Bitcoin have become even stronger.
BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Each time Bitcoin makes a new high, investors expect some form of correction. Despite failing to break through the $24,000 resistance, the price quickly bounced from its sub- $22,000 dip on Dec. 21. This event might have given sellers some hope, but looking under the hood, there is not a single sign of weakness sign.
In the past week, Bitcoin dominance continued to gain as it climbed from 64.3% to 67.3%. This move was aided by the Dubai-based financial advisory firm deVere Group’s $46,000 prediction for 2021. Moreover, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) surpassed $1.3 billion of futures contracts. This creates indisputable evidence of the growing institutional participation in BTC markets.
This news appears to have given further confidence to investors, causing Bitcoin to reach a new $24,300 all-time high on Dec. 20.
In the past week, Bitcoin outperformed the top-15 altcoins, which climbed 7.7% on average. More importantly, the volume from altcoins has been disappointing compared to Bitcoin’s 50% increase. This indicator strengthens the recent dominance performance, as does BTC establishing $22,500 as a new support.
Institutional investors accumulate while Bitcoin price consolidates
Crypto fund manager Grayscale Investments also continued to aggressively add BTC to their portfolio which now contains $13.3 billion in Bitcoin.
Over the past week, 11,620 BTC were added, totaling 576,650 BTC. Therefore, it was another excellent week for Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. Similar excitement can be seen by analyzing the fund’s premium over the effective BTC held by each share, which currently sits at 0.00095064 BTC.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust premium. Source: TradingView and Grayscale
As shown above, the premium increased from 18% to 40% in the past seven days. This extraordinary level can be partially explained by a temporary suspension of new shares being issued.
Albeit unusual, a similar move occurred six months ago. By halting the offer to institutional clients, any additional demand needs to be met by secondary sales, thus creating pressure for a larger premium.
Perpetual futures funding is holding steady
Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate that is usually charged every eight hours. Funding rates ensure there are no exchange risk imbalances. Even though both buyers and sellers’ open interest is matched at all times, the leverage can vary.
When buyers (longs) are the ones demanding more leverage, the funding rate turns positive. Therefore, the buyers will be the ones paying up the fees. This issue holds especially true during bull runs, when there is usually more demand for longs.
Sustainable rates above 2% per week translate to extreme optimism. This level is acceptable during market rallies but problematic if the BTC price is sideways or in a downtrend.
In situations like these, high leverage from buyers increases the likelihood of large liquidations when the price drops abruptly.
BTC perpetual futures funding rates. Source: Digital Assets Data
Take notice how, despite Bitcoin’s weakness on Dec. 21, the weekly funding rate managed to avoid the negative territory. This data indicates that both short (sell) and long (buy) traders use roughly the same leverage.
This is a neutral reading, as both sides have powder left to increase their bets.
Social network activity peaked
BTC Twitter user activity vs. USD price. Source: TheTie
Data from TheTie also shows that a recent BTC price increase occurred while tweets related to ‘Bitcoin’ reached the highest level seen since Dec. 2017. Despite the recent correction on the social activity indicator, the current level remains 10% higher than the previous month.
While a significant bump in Twitter activity does not necessarily equal vigorous retail buying it certainly helps to gather more attention as the cryptocurrency continues its uptrend.
Options put-to-call ratio
The best way to gauge overall market sentiment is to measure whether more activity is going through call (buy) options or put (sell) options. Generally speaking, call options are used for bullish strategies, whereas put options are for bearish ones.
A 0.70 put-to-call ratio indicates that put options open interest lag the more bullish calls by 30% and is therefore bullish.
In contrast, a 1.20 indicator favors put options by 20%, which can be deemed bearish. One thing to note is that the metric aggregates the entire BTC options market, including all calendar months.
As Bitcoin price broke $20,000, investors rushed to seek downside protection. As a result, the put-to-call ratio peaked at 1.08 on Dec. 19. The very unusual level favoring the more neutral-to-bearish strategies reverted soon after, as the indicator returned to 0.60.
This shows that investors optimism was not harmed by the 10% price correction that followed the $24,200 all-time high.
Bitcoin is holding $22,500 while traders remain optimistic
Overall, each of the indicators discussed have quickly returned to a neutral-to-bullish range and this relatively positive given that the market recently tested a $21,910 low.
As BTC holds above $22,500, investors are quickly regaining their confidence whilend the consistent bounces back from each dip are a positive sign.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
‘Bullish year ahead’ — Bitcoin primed for Q1 2021 gains, strength index suggests
Published
16 Minuten ago
on
Dezember 29, 2020
By
The monthly relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin (BTC) shows the dominant cryptocurrency is primed for another rally.
Is 2021 an ideal time for a Bitcoin rally?
The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold. When the RSI surpasses 75, it signals the asset is overbought, and when it drops below 30, it means the asset is oversold.
A pseudonymous trader known as “Crypto Capo” noted that the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is set to close above 80. Historically, when this has happened, BTC has saw a strong rally afterward.
Although the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is above 80, which is technically oversold, BTC’s RSI tends to become oversold for prolonged periods during a bull cycle.
The monthly RSI of Bitcoin. Source: Crypto Capo
Hence, traders often refer to an oversold RSI on a high time frame chart, like the monthly candle chart, to forecast an extended rally in the short term to medium term. The trader said:
“Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”
However, the trader emphasized that one indicator cannot accurately predict the price cycle of Bitcoin. Crypto Capo explained that the combination of a few indicators could serve as guidance for the future. He wrote:
“You cannot base a prediction on an indicator. What we do is combining several methods to have a guideline for the future, to see what is more likely. But in the end, we adapt to what the price does in the present.”
“Bullish year ahead”
Traders have differing perspectives on where Bitcoin is headed in 2021, but most traders remain overwhelmingly bullish.
Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michael van de Poppe said he anticipates Bitcoin to reach $65,000 to $85,000 by next year’s end. He stated:
“I’ve got to revise my view on the potential level of $BTC at the end of 2021. Through this recent surge, I’m expecting it to be between $65,000-85,000 at the end of 2021. Bullish year ahead.”
Meanwhile, the options market is pricing in a 22% chance of Bitcoin achieving $120,000 by next year, which could also serve as a potential guideline on where BTC is heading in 2021.
In the short-term, however, some traders are cautious in entering leveraged positions. A pseudonymous trader known as “TheBoot” said the ideal scenario is to wait for Bitcoin to consolidate at $25,000 or enter after the next price upsurge. The trader explained:
“No rush to enter leveraged trades on $btc right here imo. Best would be to wait and long low 25k or even mid 24k. Alternatively, wait for the next leg up and then a dip from there.”
Cointelegraph previously reported that whales have been buying Bitcoin more aggressively since Christmas, which could buoy the mid-term bull case for BTC entering into 2021.
Here’s What History Says To Expect From Bitcoin In 2021
Published
2 Stunden ago
on
Dezember 29, 2020
By
Bitcoin has had an explosive breakout year as a maturing financial asset,. The cryptocurrency is finally being considered by institutional investors for the first time, during a year that will go down in history for unprecedented money printing.
The asset’s hardcoded digital scarcity is a primary driver of its boom and bust cycles, and in the year following each block reward halving, magic happens. With the new year right around the corner, here’s a look back at past crypto market cycles for a glimpse at what to expect from Bitcoin in 2021.
Looking Back At Historical Bitcoin Market Cycles
All markets are cyclical and go through distinct phases of bear and bull trends. These cycles can take place over the course of decades, or a handful of years. In crypto, cycles often move faster than traditional assets due to the always-on, 24/7 market.
But because Bitcoin is just over a decade old, there are only a couple of boom and bust cycles at which to glean any useable data. In technical terms, when Bitcoin breaks its former all-time high, the new bull market is on.
Fundamentally, this occurs every four years following the asset’s block reward halving. This built-in mechanism slashes the supply of BTC in half at a time when demand is beginning to resume.
RELATED READING | NY TIMES BESTSELLING AUTHOR: BITCOIN S2F IS FLAWED, NOT MATHEMATICALLY SOUND
The combined effect of suddenly diminished supply and growing demand throws buying and selling equilibrium so out of balance that price appreciates exponentially.
2020 has acted as the ideal example of the impact each halving can have on the market. Bitcoin went from “a fad” to full-blown FOMO in less than nine months, all because supply and demand is so favorable to positive ROI.
And while 2020 was definitely a breakout year for a bullish Bitcoin, it is next year that will make a new wave of Bitcoin billionaires.
Halving years are marked in blue. In the year following, the cryptocurrency goes full parabolic | Source: BLX on TradingView.com
Move Over 2020, Why 2021 Will Be The Cryptocurrency’s Best Year Yet
Glancing at the chart above and it’s shocking to see just how high Bitcoin has climbed in twelve years. During the twelve years of trading, the cryptocurrency has had three distinct halvings, cutting the reward miners receive from 50 to 25 BTC, then from 25 to 12.5 BTC, to the current 6.25 BTC.
Each time this happens, demand begins to so drastically outweigh the limited supply, the asset goes parabolic and rises exponentially.
RELATED READING | BITCOIN BULL RUN IS OFFICIAL ACCORDING TO MONTHLY RSI, MORE BULLISH THAN 2017
In the two post-halving years on record, the first resulted in well over 6,000% ROI and the second just under 2,000% ROI. What could 2021 bring crypto investors?
Another 2,000-6,000% return isn’t likely simply due to the law of diminishing returns, however, even a 400% increase from current levels would result in a price of $125,000 per BTC.
Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com
Bitcoin Latest Correction Prepares Ground for $30K Test: Analyst
Published
5 Stunden ago
on
Dezember 29, 2020
By
A downside correction in the Bitcoin market at the beginning of this week may prepare a fresh run-up towards $30,000, says Teddy Cleps.
The independent market analyst tweeted a technically bullish set up on Monday, projecting the Bitcoin price in a trend continuation pattern. In the chart, traders can observe the cryptocurrency consolidating inside a Triangle-like structure following its parabolic upside move above $28,000 on Sunday.
Bitcoin bull run setup, as presented by Teddy Cleps. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
It appears like a potential Bullish Pennant, which could technically send the Bitcoin price higher by as much as the rally that preceded its formation — aka “flagpole.” It is around $3,652 long, as measured by Bitcoinist. Therefore, the bitcoin price has a great potential of hitting $30,000 should it break the Pennant to the upside from its apex.
“The rejection from $28,000 was just telling us where the next triangle started,” said Mr. Cleps. “Let it consolidate, let it reach an apex, let it break out, and then show us the way to $30,000.”
Fundamentals
The bullish analogy surfaced as Bitcoin achieves one record high after another. The cryptocurrency reached a new one of $28,387 on Sunday as traditional markets remained close for the Christmas holiday. Meanwhile, the aggregated open interest of Bitcoin Futures hit another record level of $8.9 billion, further reflecting the market’s enthusiasm.
Bitcoin Futures aggregated open interest across all exchanges. Source: Skew
Robbie Liu, a researcher at OKEx cryptocurrency exchange, noted that Bitcoin expects to sustain its profits on booming institutional adoption. Typically, the leading crypto corrects lower after a rally as traders’ focus shifts on its rivals, causing a so-called “altcoin rally,” which is no longer the case.
Mr. Liu referred to Donald Trump’s decision to sign a bill that would pave the way for a $900 billion stimulus package to reach millions of Americans. Coupled with the Federal Reserve’s dovish policies, it would increase further downside pressure on the US dollar. The greenback is already down by more than 12 percent YTD.
“The three major U.S. stock indexes rose for the second day in a row before the Christmas holiday,” said Mr. Liu. “Meanwhile, stock index futures saw gains today after President Trump signed a new $900 billion stimulus package, and we can expect some of that sentiment to boost Bitcoin.”
Warnings for Bitcoin Bulls
As the bullish euphoria sustains, some analysts have also suggested traders prepare for a short-term downside correction — that could invalidate the Bullish Pennant setup above.
Mark Principato, the executive director at Green Bridge Investing, stated that Bitcoin’s current upside moves “are a sign of speculative froth and the herd mentality.” The analyst stated that the cryptocurrency could still fall towards $23,000, where traders can consider opening a long position.
“Please understand, when the market looks its best, that is often the WORST time to enter,” he explained. “Avoid the hype and all of the “logic” and reasoning as to WHY this move is taking place. It will not enforce good habits in the long run.”