While you’re undoubtedly “in it for the technology,” the most popular and hotly-debated topic, particularly as far as public interest is concerned, remains the price of Bitcoin (BTC) and speculating on its value in the future.
Currently, Bitcoin is in a bull market cycle, up over 200% year-to-date and outperforming everything else in 2020 with the exception of a few stocks like Tesla. But this rally seems different than the one in late 2017. For one, the all-time high has been definitively broken. Second, institutions are accumulating — while the public still sits largely on the sidelines.
“We are in a flood of money and credit”
Six-figure price predictions per Bitcoin are becoming increasingly common for this bull cycle with accelerating central bank monetary expansion as the key driver.
In fact, billionaire investors such as Ray Dalio are beginning to warm to the idea of Bitcoin alongside gold as a way to diversify against what he calls “the depreciating value of money.”
“We are in a flood of money and credit that is lifting most asset prices and distributing wealth in a way that the system that we’ve come to believe is normal is unable to, and that is threatening to the value of our money and credit,” he warned in a Dec. 8 Reddit session.
“Most likely that flood will not recede, so those assets will not decline when measured in the depreciating value of money. It is important to diversify well in terms of currencies and countries, as well as asset classes.”
Will Bitcoin hit $100K-$200K?
As Cointelegraph reported in May, Morgan Creek’s CEO Mark Yusko said BTC price could exceed $100,000 over the next year or so. The price has now more than doubled since, but it still has to gain roughly another 300% in the next 12 months to reach six figures.
This estimate echoes the forecast of the popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which its creator, planB, says continues to be right on track. Last month, planB reiterated that he now has no doubt BTC will hit $100,000 by December 2021 due to a “supply shortage.”
“People ask if I still believe in my model. To be clear: I have no doubt whatsoever that Bitcoin S2FX is correct and Bitcoin will tap $100,000-288,000 before December 2021,” he wrote last month.
As reported, Bitcoin has caught up to the S2F model mean trend line in the past month.
A “conservative” $200,000-$300,000?
The $200,000 price prediction is even becoming relatively tame, according to other analysts. Popular on-chain analyst Will Woo says he’s seeing more evidence of “hodling” this time around, as well as a dwindling BTC supply on exchanges as a result of the previously-mentioned shortage of stock.
BTC reserve on all exchanges. Source CryptoQuant
According to Woo, this will be a double-whammy for the bears.
“My Top Model suggesting $200K per BTC by end of 2021 looks conservative, $300K not out of the question.”
“I’ve never been so bullish for 2021,” he continues in another post. “This re-accumulation phase coincides with spot market inventory depletion roughly 2x longer and deeper than the last cycle. It will send BTC.”
$400,000 and higher for “digital gold”?
Even higher price predictions stem from the argument that Bitcoin can challenge — or is already starting to challenge — and eventually supplant gold as a de facto store of value. Interestingly, some of the most bullish forecasts have started to come from legacy finance as Bitcoin rose to new all-time highs in early December to vastly outperform gold in 2020.
In November, for example, an analyst from Citibank told clients in a note that Bitcoin could reach as high as $318,000 in 2021. Citibank managing director Tom Fitzpatrick cited Bitcoin’s historic “unthinkable rallies followed by painful corrections.”
Currently, the Citibank executive believes BTC is in the middle of a bull run that appears to be in “what looks like a very well defined channel,” which sets it up for a $318,000 target in December 2021.
JPMorgan meanwhile is also starting to point out Bitcoin’s increasing popularity among traditional investors. In fact, the investment bank giant sees a lot more upside potential from Bitcoin as “digital gold,” compared to the already “very advanced” adoption of gold.
In a note to clients, the strategists said:
“The adoption of bitcoin by institutional investors has only begun, while for gold, its adoption by institutional investors is very advanced. If this medium to longer-term thesis proves right, the price of gold would suffer from a structural headwind over the coming years.”
Today, Bitcoin’s market cap is less than 4% of gold’s. This immense upside potential has also prompted other big-name investors to share their predictions that involve Bitcoin challenging and even surpassing gold with its $9 trillion market cap.
Morgan Creek’s Anthony Pompliano still targets around $100,000 in 2021. However, in the summer he gave a $400,00 target in the longer term if BTC starts catching up to gold. Meanwhile, Gemini exchange founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss believe Bitcoin “being a better gold than gold,” which means that price rising to $500,000 is now inevitable.
MicroStrategy and other investment firms buying significant amounts of Bitcoin is only the beginning of a major shift, according to Cameron. What’s more, Wall Street has started warming to Bitcoin as its quickly becoming a “no-brainer” for investment portfolios. Comparing it to the bottom of the first in a nine-inning baseball game, the Winklevoss twins expect Bitcoin’s value to continue climbing in the coming years.
“What if every Fortune 100 or 500 company does that, what if central banks start doing that? It hasn’t even started,” he added.
‘Bullish year ahead’ — Bitcoin primed for Q1 2021 gains, strength index suggests
Published
23 Sekunden ago
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Dezember 29, 2020
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The monthly relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin (BTC) shows the dominant cryptocurrency is primed for another rally.
Is 2021 an ideal time for a Bitcoin rally?
The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold. When the RSI surpasses 75, it signals the asset is overbought, and when it drops below 30, it means the asset is oversold.
A pseudonymous trader known as “Crypto Capo” noted that the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is set to close above 80. Historically, when this has happened, BTC has saw a strong rally afterward.
Although the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is above 80, which is technically oversold, BTC’s RSI tends to become oversold for prolonged periods during a bull cycle.
The monthly RSI of Bitcoin. Source: Crypto Capo
Hence, traders often refer to an oversold RSI on a high time frame chart, like the monthly candle chart, to forecast an extended rally in the short term to medium term. The trader said:
“Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”
However, the trader emphasized that one indicator cannot accurately predict the price cycle of Bitcoin. Crypto Capo explained that the combination of a few indicators could serve as guidance for the future. He wrote:
“You cannot base a prediction on an indicator. What we do is combining several methods to have a guideline for the future, to see what is more likely. But in the end, we adapt to what the price does in the present.”
“Bullish year ahead”
Traders have differing perspectives on where Bitcoin is headed in 2021, but most traders remain overwhelmingly bullish.
Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michael van de Poppe said he anticipates Bitcoin to reach $65,000 to $85,000 by next year’s end. He stated:
“I’ve got to revise my view on the potential level of $BTC at the end of 2021. Through this recent surge, I’m expecting it to be between $65,000-85,000 at the end of 2021. Bullish year ahead.”
Meanwhile, the options market is pricing in a 22% chance of Bitcoin achieving $120,000 by next year, which could also serve as a potential guideline on where BTC is heading in 2021.
In the short-term, however, some traders are cautious in entering leveraged positions. A pseudonymous trader known as “TheBoot” said the ideal scenario is to wait for Bitcoin to consolidate at $25,000 or enter after the next price upsurge. The trader explained:
“No rush to enter leveraged trades on $btc right here imo. Best would be to wait and long low 25k or even mid 24k. Alternatively, wait for the next leg up and then a dip from there.”
Cointelegraph previously reported that whales have been buying Bitcoin more aggressively since Christmas, which could buoy the mid-term bull case for BTC entering into 2021.
Here’s What History Says To Expect From Bitcoin In 2021
Published
2 Stunden ago
on
Dezember 29, 2020
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Bitcoin has had an explosive breakout year as a maturing financial asset,. The cryptocurrency is finally being considered by institutional investors for the first time, during a year that will go down in history for unprecedented money printing.
The asset’s hardcoded digital scarcity is a primary driver of its boom and bust cycles, and in the year following each block reward halving, magic happens. With the new year right around the corner, here’s a look back at past crypto market cycles for a glimpse at what to expect from Bitcoin in 2021.
Looking Back At Historical Bitcoin Market Cycles
All markets are cyclical and go through distinct phases of bear and bull trends. These cycles can take place over the course of decades, or a handful of years. In crypto, cycles often move faster than traditional assets due to the always-on, 24/7 market.
But because Bitcoin is just over a decade old, there are only a couple of boom and bust cycles at which to glean any useable data. In technical terms, when Bitcoin breaks its former all-time high, the new bull market is on.
Fundamentally, this occurs every four years following the asset’s block reward halving. This built-in mechanism slashes the supply of BTC in half at a time when demand is beginning to resume.
RELATED READING | NY TIMES BESTSELLING AUTHOR: BITCOIN S2F IS FLAWED, NOT MATHEMATICALLY SOUND
The combined effect of suddenly diminished supply and growing demand throws buying and selling equilibrium so out of balance that price appreciates exponentially.
2020 has acted as the ideal example of the impact each halving can have on the market. Bitcoin went from “a fad” to full-blown FOMO in less than nine months, all because supply and demand is so favorable to positive ROI.
And while 2020 was definitely a breakout year for a bullish Bitcoin, it is next year that will make a new wave of Bitcoin billionaires.
Halving years are marked in blue. In the year following, the cryptocurrency goes full parabolic | Source: BLX on TradingView.com
Move Over 2020, Why 2021 Will Be The Cryptocurrency’s Best Year Yet
Glancing at the chart above and it’s shocking to see just how high Bitcoin has climbed in twelve years. During the twelve years of trading, the cryptocurrency has had three distinct halvings, cutting the reward miners receive from 50 to 25 BTC, then from 25 to 12.5 BTC, to the current 6.25 BTC.
Each time this happens, demand begins to so drastically outweigh the limited supply, the asset goes parabolic and rises exponentially.
RELATED READING | BITCOIN BULL RUN IS OFFICIAL ACCORDING TO MONTHLY RSI, MORE BULLISH THAN 2017
In the two post-halving years on record, the first resulted in well over 6,000% ROI and the second just under 2,000% ROI. What could 2021 bring crypto investors?
Another 2,000-6,000% return isn’t likely simply due to the law of diminishing returns, however, even a 400% increase from current levels would result in a price of $125,000 per BTC.
Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com
Bitcoin Latest Correction Prepares Ground for $30K Test: Analyst
Published
5 Stunden ago
on
Dezember 29, 2020
By
A downside correction in the Bitcoin market at the beginning of this week may prepare a fresh run-up towards $30,000, says Teddy Cleps.
The independent market analyst tweeted a technically bullish set up on Monday, projecting the Bitcoin price in a trend continuation pattern. In the chart, traders can observe the cryptocurrency consolidating inside a Triangle-like structure following its parabolic upside move above $28,000 on Sunday.
Bitcoin bull run setup, as presented by Teddy Cleps. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
It appears like a potential Bullish Pennant, which could technically send the Bitcoin price higher by as much as the rally that preceded its formation — aka “flagpole.” It is around $3,652 long, as measured by Bitcoinist. Therefore, the bitcoin price has a great potential of hitting $30,000 should it break the Pennant to the upside from its apex.
“The rejection from $28,000 was just telling us where the next triangle started,” said Mr. Cleps. “Let it consolidate, let it reach an apex, let it break out, and then show us the way to $30,000.”
Fundamentals
The bullish analogy surfaced as Bitcoin achieves one record high after another. The cryptocurrency reached a new one of $28,387 on Sunday as traditional markets remained close for the Christmas holiday. Meanwhile, the aggregated open interest of Bitcoin Futures hit another record level of $8.9 billion, further reflecting the market’s enthusiasm.
Bitcoin Futures aggregated open interest across all exchanges. Source: Skew
Robbie Liu, a researcher at OKEx cryptocurrency exchange, noted that Bitcoin expects to sustain its profits on booming institutional adoption. Typically, the leading crypto corrects lower after a rally as traders’ focus shifts on its rivals, causing a so-called “altcoin rally,” which is no longer the case.
Mr. Liu referred to Donald Trump’s decision to sign a bill that would pave the way for a $900 billion stimulus package to reach millions of Americans. Coupled with the Federal Reserve’s dovish policies, it would increase further downside pressure on the US dollar. The greenback is already down by more than 12 percent YTD.
“The three major U.S. stock indexes rose for the second day in a row before the Christmas holiday,” said Mr. Liu. “Meanwhile, stock index futures saw gains today after President Trump signed a new $900 billion stimulus package, and we can expect some of that sentiment to boost Bitcoin.”
Warnings for Bitcoin Bulls
As the bullish euphoria sustains, some analysts have also suggested traders prepare for a short-term downside correction — that could invalidate the Bullish Pennant setup above.
Mark Principato, the executive director at Green Bridge Investing, stated that Bitcoin’s current upside moves “are a sign of speculative froth and the herd mentality.” The analyst stated that the cryptocurrency could still fall towards $23,000, where traders can consider opening a long position.
“Please understand, when the market looks its best, that is often the WORST time to enter,” he explained. “Avoid the hype and all of the “logic” and reasoning as to WHY this move is taking place. It will not enforce good habits in the long run.”