The supply and demand equation determines the price of an asset. In the past few months, the uptick in institutional demand for Bitcoin (BTC) has resulted in a strong bull run. This uptrend may continue until demand exceeds supply.
On-chain data shows two withdrawals of more than 12,000 Bitcoin each from Coinbase Pro this week, which is just short of the 28,000 Bitcoin mined in November. This suggests that demand from institutional investors remains intact even after Bitcoin’s recent rally because they are bullish in the long term.
Meanwhile, Mexico’s second richest man, Ricardo Salinas Pliego, said in an interview with Cointelegraph that Bitcoin has been his “best investment ever.” Salinas has about 10% of his liquid portfolio in Bitcoin and he is in no hurry to sell as he wants to “sit around for another five or ten years.”
Crypto market data daily view. Source:Coin360
The strong demand and HODLing by institutional investors has propelled Bitcoin’s market capitalization to above $500 billion for the first time. It has also boosted Bitcoin’s market dominance to above 70.5%, which suggests that the inflow of money has largely been into Bitcoin.
However, at some point, fresh money will stop flowing into Bitcoin and that could result in a correction or consolidation. Traders may then divert their attention to select altcoins, which could pick up momentum.
Let’s look at the charts of top-five cryptocurrencies that could rally in the next few days.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin price broke above the $24,302.50 overhead resistance on Dec. 25 and resumed the uptrend. This breakout has a target objective of $28,664.04 and the price hit an intraday high at $28,419.94 today.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The BTC/USD pair’s incessant rise has sucked in traders who had been waiting on the sidelines for a dip to enter. Institutional investors, momentum traders, and speculators have also joined the party that has kept the uptrend intact.
However, the current pace of rise is not sustainable. The long wick on today’s candlestick suggests profit booking at higher levels. Even if the uptrend continues, the pair may again face selling near the $30,000 mark.
If the uptrend stalls, the short-term traders may rush to the exit and that could pull the price back to the 20-day exponential moving average ($22,613). If this support holds, the pair could again attempt to resume the uptrend.
On the other hand, a break below the 20-day EMA could drag the price to the critical support at $20,000. Therefore, traders may avoid chasing prices higher.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows the formation of a Doji candlestick pattern, which suggests indecision among the bulls and the bears. Although the uncertainty resolved to the downside, the long tail on the candlestick shows buying at lower levels. This suggests traders are purchasing on every minor dip.
However, if the bulls fail to propel the price above $28,419.94, the selling may continue and that could pull the price down to the 20-EMA at $25,446. The overbought levels on the relative strength index also point to a possible correction.
A break below the 20-EMA and the support at $24,302.50 will suggest that the momentum has weakened.
LTC/USD
In a strong uptrend, traders usually buy the dips to the 20-day EMA ($105) and that is what happened on Dec. 23. Litecoin (LTC) rebounded sharply on Dec. 24 and the momentum picked up after the bulls pushed the price above the $118.64 to $124.12 overhead resistance zone.
LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The immediate target is $145 but if the bulls do not allow the price to drop and sustain below $124.1278, the rally may extend to $180. The rising moving averages and the RSI in the overbought zone suggest bulls are in control.
This bullish view will be invalidated if the LTC/USD pair turns around from the current levels or the overhead resistance and drops below the 20-day EMA. Such a move will suggest that traders are not buying the dips.
LTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart is also in an uptrend with both moving averages sloping up and the RSI in positive territory. However, the momentum has weakened as bulls are facing resistance near $136.
If the bulls do not allow the price to sustain below the 20-EMA, the pair could be on target to reach $145. But if the price turns down from the current levels and breaks below $118.6497 and the 50-simple moving average, it will suggest the start of a deeper correction.
BCH/USD
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has been repeatedly attempting to break above the $353 overhead resistance for the past few days. Although the bulls had pushed the price above $353 on two occasions, marked via ellipse on the chart, they could not sustain the higher levels.
BCH/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
This suggests traders are aggressively selling on any rise above $353. However, the positive thing is that the bulls have accumulated on declines below $280 and are currently attempting to push the price above $353.
If they succeed, the BCH/USD pair could start its journey toward $500. It may not be a straight dash to the target objective because the bears will again try to stall the rally at $409 and $430. But if both these levels are scaled, the pair could pick up momentum.
The upsloping moving averages and RSI above 61 suggest bulls have the upper hand.
BCH/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows the pair is currently trading inside a large range between $255 and $370. The bulls are currently attempting to drive the price above the $353 to $370 overhead resistance.
If they succeed, the pair could start an uptrend that has a target objective of $485. The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive territory, which suggests that bulls have the upper hand.
However, if the price again turns down from the current level or $370, the pair may extend its stay inside the range for a few more days.
XMR/USD
The long wick on Dec. 23 candlestick shows traders booked profits after Monero (XMR) hit $167, the target objective of the breakout from the inverse head and shoulders pattern.
XMR/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
However, the positive thing was that the bulls purchased the dip to the 20-day EMA ($151) on Dec. 24. The upsloping moving averages and the RSI in the positive zone suggest that the sentiment remains positive.
The long tail on today’s candlestick shows that bulls are buying on dips. If they can push and sustain the price above $170, the XMR/USD pair could rally to the next target objective at $197, just below the psychological resistance at $200.
This positive view will be invalidated if the price turns down from the current levels and breaks below the 20-day EMA. Such a move could signal a deeper correction to $135.50.
XMR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows that the pair has been trading inside an ascending channel but the bulls have failed to push and sustain the price into the top half of the channel. The pair has usually turned down from the midpoint of the channel.
This suggests short-term traders are taking profits at intermittent levels. However, if the bulls can push and sustain the price above the midpoint of the channel, the pair could rally to the resistance line of the channel, indicating a pick-up in momentum.
On the other hand, a break below the support line of the channel could signal a possible change in the short-term trend.
THETA/USD
THETA has rallied vertically in the past few days, which pushed the RSI deep into the overbought territory. This has started a correction as seen from the sharp fall today.
THETA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
However, if the price does not dip and sustain below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.31994, it will suggest that traders continue to buy on dips as they anticipate the rally to extend further.
If the bulls can push the price above $1.742, the THETA/USD pair could rally to the $2 psychological level and then to $2.40.
Contrary to this bullish assumption, if the bears sink the price below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.18957, it will suggest that the momentum has weakened.
THETA/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls are currently attempting to defend the 20-EMA. If the pair rebounds off this level, the bulls will attempt to resume the uptrend. The upsloping moving averages and the RSI in the positive territory suggest that bulls are in control.
Contrary to this assumption, if the pair breaks below the 20-EMA, it will suggest that the short-term momentum has weakened. That could pull the price down to the next support at the 50-SMA.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
‘Bullish year ahead’ — Bitcoin primed for Q1 2021 gains, strength index suggests
Published
20 Minuten ago
on
Dezember 29, 2020
By
The monthly relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin (BTC) shows the dominant cryptocurrency is primed for another rally.
Is 2021 an ideal time for a Bitcoin rally?
The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold. When the RSI surpasses 75, it signals the asset is overbought, and when it drops below 30, it means the asset is oversold.
A pseudonymous trader known as “Crypto Capo” noted that the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is set to close above 80. Historically, when this has happened, BTC has saw a strong rally afterward.
Although the monthly RSI of Bitcoin is above 80, which is technically oversold, BTC’s RSI tends to become oversold for prolonged periods during a bull cycle.
The monthly RSI of Bitcoin. Source: Crypto Capo
Hence, traders often refer to an oversold RSI on a high time frame chart, like the monthly candle chart, to forecast an extended rally in the short term to medium term. The trader said:
“Monthly candle is about to close above 80. When this happens, bullish trend continues, with an avg. return of 1010.87%. Each cycle is shorter.”
However, the trader emphasized that one indicator cannot accurately predict the price cycle of Bitcoin. Crypto Capo explained that the combination of a few indicators could serve as guidance for the future. He wrote:
“You cannot base a prediction on an indicator. What we do is combining several methods to have a guideline for the future, to see what is more likely. But in the end, we adapt to what the price does in the present.”
“Bullish year ahead”
Traders have differing perspectives on where Bitcoin is headed in 2021, but most traders remain overwhelmingly bullish.
Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michael van de Poppe said he anticipates Bitcoin to reach $65,000 to $85,000 by next year’s end. He stated:
“I’ve got to revise my view on the potential level of $BTC at the end of 2021. Through this recent surge, I’m expecting it to be between $65,000-85,000 at the end of 2021. Bullish year ahead.”
Meanwhile, the options market is pricing in a 22% chance of Bitcoin achieving $120,000 by next year, which could also serve as a potential guideline on where BTC is heading in 2021.
In the short-term, however, some traders are cautious in entering leveraged positions. A pseudonymous trader known as “TheBoot” said the ideal scenario is to wait for Bitcoin to consolidate at $25,000 or enter after the next price upsurge. The trader explained:
“No rush to enter leveraged trades on $btc right here imo. Best would be to wait and long low 25k or even mid 24k. Alternatively, wait for the next leg up and then a dip from there.”
Cointelegraph previously reported that whales have been buying Bitcoin more aggressively since Christmas, which could buoy the mid-term bull case for BTC entering into 2021.
Here’s What History Says To Expect From Bitcoin In 2021
Published
2 Stunden ago
on
Dezember 29, 2020
By
Bitcoin has had an explosive breakout year as a maturing financial asset,. The cryptocurrency is finally being considered by institutional investors for the first time, during a year that will go down in history for unprecedented money printing.
The asset’s hardcoded digital scarcity is a primary driver of its boom and bust cycles, and in the year following each block reward halving, magic happens. With the new year right around the corner, here’s a look back at past crypto market cycles for a glimpse at what to expect from Bitcoin in 2021.
Looking Back At Historical Bitcoin Market Cycles
All markets are cyclical and go through distinct phases of bear and bull trends. These cycles can take place over the course of decades, or a handful of years. In crypto, cycles often move faster than traditional assets due to the always-on, 24/7 market.
But because Bitcoin is just over a decade old, there are only a couple of boom and bust cycles at which to glean any useable data. In technical terms, when Bitcoin breaks its former all-time high, the new bull market is on.
Fundamentally, this occurs every four years following the asset’s block reward halving. This built-in mechanism slashes the supply of BTC in half at a time when demand is beginning to resume.
RELATED READING | NY TIMES BESTSELLING AUTHOR: BITCOIN S2F IS FLAWED, NOT MATHEMATICALLY SOUND
The combined effect of suddenly diminished supply and growing demand throws buying and selling equilibrium so out of balance that price appreciates exponentially.
2020 has acted as the ideal example of the impact each halving can have on the market. Bitcoin went from “a fad” to full-blown FOMO in less than nine months, all because supply and demand is so favorable to positive ROI.
And while 2020 was definitely a breakout year for a bullish Bitcoin, it is next year that will make a new wave of Bitcoin billionaires.
Halving years are marked in blue. In the year following, the cryptocurrency goes full parabolic | Source: BLX on TradingView.com
Move Over 2020, Why 2021 Will Be The Cryptocurrency’s Best Year Yet
Glancing at the chart above and it’s shocking to see just how high Bitcoin has climbed in twelve years. During the twelve years of trading, the cryptocurrency has had three distinct halvings, cutting the reward miners receive from 50 to 25 BTC, then from 25 to 12.5 BTC, to the current 6.25 BTC.
Each time this happens, demand begins to so drastically outweigh the limited supply, the asset goes parabolic and rises exponentially.
RELATED READING | BITCOIN BULL RUN IS OFFICIAL ACCORDING TO MONTHLY RSI, MORE BULLISH THAN 2017
In the two post-halving years on record, the first resulted in well over 6,000% ROI and the second just under 2,000% ROI. What could 2021 bring crypto investors?
Another 2,000-6,000% return isn’t likely simply due to the law of diminishing returns, however, even a 400% increase from current levels would result in a price of $125,000 per BTC.
Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com
Bitcoin Latest Correction Prepares Ground for $30K Test: Analyst
Published
5 Stunden ago
on
Dezember 29, 2020
By
A downside correction in the Bitcoin market at the beginning of this week may prepare a fresh run-up towards $30,000, says Teddy Cleps.
The independent market analyst tweeted a technically bullish set up on Monday, projecting the Bitcoin price in a trend continuation pattern. In the chart, traders can observe the cryptocurrency consolidating inside a Triangle-like structure following its parabolic upside move above $28,000 on Sunday.
Bitcoin bull run setup, as presented by Teddy Cleps. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
It appears like a potential Bullish Pennant, which could technically send the Bitcoin price higher by as much as the rally that preceded its formation — aka “flagpole.” It is around $3,652 long, as measured by Bitcoinist. Therefore, the bitcoin price has a great potential of hitting $30,000 should it break the Pennant to the upside from its apex.
“The rejection from $28,000 was just telling us where the next triangle started,” said Mr. Cleps. “Let it consolidate, let it reach an apex, let it break out, and then show us the way to $30,000.”
Fundamentals
The bullish analogy surfaced as Bitcoin achieves one record high after another. The cryptocurrency reached a new one of $28,387 on Sunday as traditional markets remained close for the Christmas holiday. Meanwhile, the aggregated open interest of Bitcoin Futures hit another record level of $8.9 billion, further reflecting the market’s enthusiasm.
Bitcoin Futures aggregated open interest across all exchanges. Source: Skew
Robbie Liu, a researcher at OKEx cryptocurrency exchange, noted that Bitcoin expects to sustain its profits on booming institutional adoption. Typically, the leading crypto corrects lower after a rally as traders’ focus shifts on its rivals, causing a so-called “altcoin rally,” which is no longer the case.
Mr. Liu referred to Donald Trump’s decision to sign a bill that would pave the way for a $900 billion stimulus package to reach millions of Americans. Coupled with the Federal Reserve’s dovish policies, it would increase further downside pressure on the US dollar. The greenback is already down by more than 12 percent YTD.
“The three major U.S. stock indexes rose for the second day in a row before the Christmas holiday,” said Mr. Liu. “Meanwhile, stock index futures saw gains today after President Trump signed a new $900 billion stimulus package, and we can expect some of that sentiment to boost Bitcoin.”
Warnings for Bitcoin Bulls
As the bullish euphoria sustains, some analysts have also suggested traders prepare for a short-term downside correction — that could invalidate the Bullish Pennant setup above.
Mark Principato, the executive director at Green Bridge Investing, stated that Bitcoin’s current upside moves “are a sign of speculative froth and the herd mentality.” The analyst stated that the cryptocurrency could still fall towards $23,000, where traders can consider opening a long position.
“Please understand, when the market looks its best, that is often the WORST time to enter,” he explained. “Avoid the hype and all of the “logic” and reasoning as to WHY this move is taking place. It will not enforce good habits in the long run.”