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Bitcoin, Bank Coins and Bonds, feat. George Goncalves

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A macro and bond specialist joins NLW to discuss the economics of 2021.

George Goncalves has been a macro analyst specializing in bonds for more than 20 years. In this conversation, he and NLW discuss the story bonds are telling the market and why central bank digital currencies are likely to have an important part of the macro conversation in 2021.



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Taylor Monahan: The Year the Narrative Became the Truth

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The year 2020, as told by the Crypto Believers, will most certainly go down in history as the year the curtain was finally pulled back.

For so long we sounded the alarm about the threat of centralized entities. For so long we warned of the unsustainable monetary policy of the United States Federal Reserve. And then, suddenly, a global pandemic begets “money printer go BRRR” begets endless inaction by those who claim to be our leaders. Finally, those outside our bubble began to question what they once knew.

This post is part of CoinDesk’s 2020 Year in Review – a collection of op-eds, essays and interviews about the year in crypto and beyond. Taylor Monahan is the founder and CEO of MyCrypto, a simple dashboard for managing all your Ethereum-based assets.

There were signs of a new, shared realization as non-believers began to quip, “If we can just print money, I shouldn’t have to pay taxes” and, “This is unsustainable. We’re screwing ourselves.” There were also signs they began to see how much absurdity dominates our lives. Discrimination didn’t end in 1863 or in 1964 or in 2019. We have never had “the lowest Fatality (Mortality) Rate in the World.” The stock market is not the economy. Their truth is not true.

Moreso, the truth seemed to be whatever those in power wanted it to be. Or rather, the truth is whatever we, those not in power, believe it to be. So long as enough people believe it to be true, it is true.

Our new reality manifested in everything from increased anxiety and depression as the world remained in a state of locked-down uncertainty, to debates about masks and potential COVID-19 treatments, to the Black Lives Matter movement coming back with a vengeance. 

One of the least-complex manifestations of the power of shared belief was the curious case of Hertz’s stock price pumping 900% in the weeks following its bankruptcy filing. It left otherwise rational, mature, market-minded adults (and Hertz itself) bewildered. As far as anyone has been able to sort out, after a lifetime of believing The Adults knew what they were doing The Kids realized the truth and took action on the not-so-secret secret that you don’t win the market by betting on the future – you win when you bet on what other people think will happen in the future. The Kids also happen to know, more than any other generation, that technology is the key to changing what other people think.

(Wikimedia)

The Hertz moment

I actually completely missed the Hertz situation when it first made headlines. I’m sure I saw the articles as I doomscrolled through another day of lockdown. But, as the story is so familiar, I didn’t even bother registering it to my memory. Crypto has been pumping and dumping and re-pumping and re-dumping empty shells of coins for years.

Hertz was especially uninteresting as it followed the classic pump-and-dump scheme, like what might be found on bitcointalk.org in 2013. Today’s decentralized finance (DeFi) token schemes are wrapped up in automated market makers, interoperability and yields, often making it hard to discern whether the shared delusions of the players are giving the tokens value, or if the perceived value of the tokens are creating the shared delusion. To complicate things, there is a third, meta layer: The players are aware they are playing a game and can predict the cycle of their shared delusion. The whole thing is a grotesque ouroboros – all simultaneously feeding itself, and feeding off itself, and birthing itself in some eternal, cyclical, scammy mindf**k.

See also: Taylor Monahan – As We Hunger for Viability, Let’s Stay True to Our Values

Well, maybe not “eternal.” The folks who “ape’d into” the DeFi things this summer had such a finite view, usually minutes or hours rather than months or years. It’s hard to grok how any DeFi thing could survive once the heavily subsidized reward period wore off. Especially if two or three or 10 freshly subsidized DeFi things had launched since. Yet they somehow did … sorta.

It’s even harder to understand how this became a dominating force of 2020 considering the intense individualism and selfishness that it both fuel, and is fueled by. We’ve managed to build thousands of “every man for himself” sub-networks on a sprawling, decentralized, cooperative, consensus network. Luckily, or perhaps unluckily if we value our humanity, decentralized consensus networks don’t care about the morality of the things running on it.

And, as much as they continue to fight me on it, I remain convinced that these half-baked farming games are unsustainable in the same way initial coin offerings (ICOs) are unsustainable, in the same way hacked smart contracts are catastrophic, in the same way the money printer cannot go BRRRRRR forever and in the same way the serpent cannot devour itself in perpetuity. 

Better system?

Bitcoin has seemingly solidified its place as an alternative, though still slightly experimental, store of value. I would talk more on this but literally everyone is talking about it and I have nothing original to add. I will admit I was wrong in 2015 and 2016 and 2017 when I said the digital gold narrative will never be more valuable than the digital cash one. Any narrative that becomes truth is more valuable than the narrative that fades from memory.

I do wonder what will ultimately become of our historically most persistent narrative, that we are creating a better world. Have we made real progress on banking the unbanked, unbanking the banked, breaking down borders and removing power from repressive regimes and corrupt cabals?

For me, crypto is a worthwhile endeavor because it can provide a viable alternative to the existing systems. Crypto can give people the gift of choice. And with that choice we can opt into the systems that benefit us and opt out of the ones that oppress us.

I wonder if this system will ever be a ‘better system’ or just ‘a system that better serves me?’

CoinDesk’s Year in Review 2020

Between the diminishing returns on truth, the ever-increasing individualism, and our submissiveness to life’s cycles, I wonder if this system will ever be a “better system” or just “a system that better serves me?”

This is important. In one, we aim to remove the system’s very ability to have a 1%. We attempt to break the cycle of oppression. We create systems to humanize any and all participants and prevent ourselves, the early adopters, the influencers and the Believers, from gaining power on the backs of others.

In the other, we simply shift the power from the oppressors of today to the oppressors of tomorrow. The oppressed devour the oppressors. The oppressors are reborn as the oppressed. The cycle continues. And then, one day, some kids show up and it is the Crypto Believers who this time must shout, “Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.”





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House Approves $2,000 Direct Payments in COVID-19 Stimulus Payouts, Looks to Senate to Vote

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There is a possibility that the Senate Republicans may want to hold onto their conservative approach in increased spending citing longer-term consequences.

The United States House of Representatives passed the votes to support the issuance of $2,000 in stimulus checks to American households or beneficiaries, with expectations from the Senate to also sign off on the higher payments. According to a report from Newsweek, the vote from the House came a day after President Donald Trump signed off the COVID-19 stimulus bill with a $600 direct payment to Americans and his unusual demand to raise the payments calling the initial proposal a “Disgrace.”

The second batch of the COVID-19 relief funds which has been marred by months of negotiation impasse over differences in the budget from both the Republicans and the Democrats in the House and Senate respectively finally saw the consent of the lawmakers and the president who recognized the need to support American families during this holidays season. The President’s proposal to boost the payments has been well received by the Democrats and marked by a 275-134 vote in the House, beating the two-third majority required to pass the bill.

Speaking ahead of the House signing off on the deal, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi noted that “the president of the United States has put this forth as something that he wants to see and part of his signing the legislation yesterday. I hope that view will be shared by the Republicans in the Senate, because we will pass this bill today.” “Republicans have a choice: vote for this legislation or vote to deny the American people the bigger paychecks this need. To reject this would be in denial of the economic challenges that people are facing and it would deny them, again, the relief they need,” added she.

Will the Senate Object to the House Ratified Higher COVID-19 Payments?

From the longer-term dispositions of the Republican-controlled Senate as seen in the months of negotiations for this new paycheck, many believe that there is a possibility that the Senate Republicans may want to hold onto their conservative approach in increased spending citing longer-term consequences.

However, many expect that a move in opposition to the higher payments will be a direct affront to the American people who needed these funds more than ever, and also to the president who is in his last days in office, barring any new developments in his attempts to overturn the results of the November 3rd Presidential elections.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., however, has noted he would force the chamber to take up the measure Tuesday but only one senator would need to object to block the bill from passing.

“Following the strong bipartisan vote in the House, tomorrow I will move to pass the legislation in the Senate to quickly deliver Americans with $2,000 emergency checks,” Schumer said in a statement Monday. “Every Senate Democrat is for this much-needed increase in emergency financial relief, which can be approved tomorrow if no Republican blocks it – there is no good reason for Senate Republicans to stand in the way.”

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Benjamin Godfrey is a blockchain enthusiast and journalists who relish writing about the real life applications of blockchain technology and innovations to drive general acceptance and worldwide integration of the emerging technology. His desires to educate people about cryptocurrencies inspires his contributions to renowned blockchain based media and sites. Benjamin Godfrey is a lover of sports and agriculture.



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India Mulls Imposing 18% Tax on Bitcoin Transactions

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The Indian government is considering a bitcoin transaction tax that would add $1 billion in revenue a year, a move some industry participants said is a sign of the government’s growing comfort with cryptocurrencies.

A proposal put forward to the Central Board of Indirect Taxes & Customs (CBIC) by the Central Economic Intelligence Bureau (CEIB) would categorize bitcoin as an intangible asset and impose an 18% goods and services (GST) tax on bitcoin transactions, according to The Times of India. The proposal also suggests treating bitcoin as current assets and charging GST on margins made in trading.

An 18% GST on the estimated annual value of all bitcoin transactions of INR 40,000 crore (roughly $5.5 billion) would yield INR 7,200 crore or $1 billion in tax revenue.

Prominent India-based crypto exchanges say a potential tax structure would bode well for the ecosystem. “Government mulling a tax structure is a sign of better understanding of this novel asset class and we are hopeful that this would lead to more positive news going forward,” Sumit Gupta, CEO of Mumbai-based crypto exchange CoinDCX said in a WhatsApp chat. “Regarding the tax rate, and structure is something that we’ll wait and watch, but this is definitely a positive sign.”

Nischal Shetty, CEO of the Binance-owned WazirX exchange, echoed similar sentiments and added that clarity on the tax front could pave the way for increased Indian institutional participation in the bitcoin market. WazirX and Bangalore-based exchange Bitbns said that they are already paying GST on trading fees. “The GST amount paid has grown 500% in the last few months,” Gaurav Dahake, founder and CEO of Bangalore-based exchange Bitbns, told CoinDesk.

Trading volumes on exchanges catering to India-based clients have been rising ever since the Supreme Court quashed the Reserve Bank of India’s (central bank) banking ban on cryptocurrencies in March. While the Indian government does not consider bitcoin legal tender, simply holding cryptocurrencies is not illegal or banned. 



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